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Tariff war is a lose-lose proposition: Canada

  • : Agriculture, Crude oil, Metals
  • 25/01/15

Any retaliation by Canada to tariffs imposed by the US would be designed to apply political pressure, the country's energy minister said today in Washington, DC, but a potential tariff war between the two countries is a lose-lose proposition.

"We are not interested in something that escalates," Canada's minister of energy and natural resources Jonathan Wilkinson said in a panel discussion at the Woodrow Wilson Center. But until tariffs are imposed, Canada does not know how it will need to respond. Canada will likely focus on goods that are "important to American producers," but also those for which Canada has an alternative.

"The point in the response is to apply political pressure," said Wilkinson, who advocated for stronger trade ties between the two countries byway of energy and critical minerals.

US president-elect Donald Trump plans to impose a 25pc tariff on all imports from both Canada and Mexico when he takes office on 20 January. So far he has not signaled any plans to exempt any goods, including oil and gas. Alberta's premier Danielle Smith and now Wilkinson are promoting the flow of more crude to ensure North America's energy security.

"We can enhance the flow of Canadian crude oil from Alberta," said Wilkinson by boosting capacity on pipelines like Enbridge's 3.1mn b/d Mainline crude export system. "The US cannot be energy dominant without Canadian energy."

The incoming administration would be open to such pipeline expansions, said Heather Reams, president of Washington-based non-profit Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. "It's something that the Trump administration and Republican members in Congress would be interested in revisiting to ensure that there is a steady flow of the energy that's needed to fuel our mutual economies," Reams said on the panel.

Enbridge's Mainline moves Canadian crude from Alberta to the US Midcontinent, where Wilkinson expects consumers will be faced with higher gasoline prices — adding as much as 75¢/USG at the pump — should tariffs be imposed.

Americans could also see higher food prices if tariffs are put on potash, a fertilizer mined in Saskatchewan and used by US farmers, she said.

Development of critical minerals like germanium, gallium and others should be pursued further to minimize the US' exposure and dependence on China, according to Wilkinson, echoing comments made by Ontario premier Doug Ford on 13 January in his own appeal to enhancing trade ties with the US.

"We cannot be in a position where China can simply manipulate the market," said Wilkinson, citing that country's dumping of nickel. "We should form a true energy and minerals alliance."


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25/02/14

Aperam’s stainless steel deliveries fall on year in 4Q

Aperam’s stainless steel deliveries fall on year in 4Q

London, 14 February (Argus) — Luxembourg-based global stainless steel producer Aperam's stainless and electrical steel shipments fell on the year in the fourth quarter owing to a sharp contraction in demand. But its deliveries recovered on a quarter-on-quarter basis as the European market did marginally better, while Brazil recorded better than expected demand. Aperam's stainless and electrical steel shipments fell by 1.5pc year on year to 401,000t in October-December. Fourth-quarter shipments rose by 2.56pc relative to the third quarter, with full-year 2024 sales registering a 4.9pc rise to 1.626mn t. Higher 2024 shipments can be attributed to the low base of 2023 driven by downstream distributor destocking. Aperam's stainless and electrical steel segment's adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) rose to €42mn in the fourth quarter, up from a loss of €34mn over the same period in 2023. Revenues for full-year 2024 nearly doubled to €175mn, up from €92mn in 2023. Shipments in the group's services and solutions segment rose by 9pc on the year in the fourth quarter to 169,000t, with deliveries of alloys and specialties flat on the year at 10,000t. Scrap metal shipments in Aperam's recycling and renewables segment — including scrap processor ELG and the group's Brazilian entity Aperam BioEnergia — fell by 7.4pc on the year to 312,000t, but full-year volumes rose by 6.63pc to 1.464mn t. Aperam's overall adjusted ebitda in 2024's fourth quarter more than doubled on the year to €116mn, attributed to a record-high performance of its alloys segment with together with strong results at its Recycling & Renewables division. Aperam expects ebitda in the first quarter of 2025 to be at a lower level relative to 2024's fourth quarter. The group is also expecting significantly higher net financial debt in the first quarter owing to the consolidation of Universal Stainless & Alloy Products completed in recent weeks. By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s GrainCorp forecasts higher exports in FY25


25/02/14
25/02/14

Australia’s GrainCorp forecasts higher exports in FY25

Sydney, 14 February (Argus) — Australian bulk handler GrainCorp is forecasting higher exports and grain receivals for its 2024-25 financial year ending on 30 September because of a larger grain crop from eastern states. GrainCorp projects exports to reach 6.5mn-7.5mn t in 2024-25, up from 5.6mn t a year earlier, the company said on 13 February. The bulk handler exported 2.7mn t of grain over 1 October 2024-13 February 2025. The total winter and summer crop output for the states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria is estimated to increase by 21pc to 34.2mn t in the fiscal year to 30 June 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences. This will support increased grain deliveries to GrainCorp's east coast storage and handling network. GrainCorp is expecting its total grain receivals for 2024-25 to reach 13-14mn t, up by around 30-40pc from 2023-24 . It has received 11.9mn t of this total as of 13 February. Total volumes of grain handled is forecast to rise by 11-18pc on the year in 2024-25. Total grain and oilseeds delivered to GrainCorp's storage and handling network could represent 38-41pc of the total crop produced in summer and winter in Australia's eastern states in the 2024-25 financial year. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Australia to export 25mn t of wheat in the October 2024-September 2025 marketing year. Australia exported 3.87mn t of wheat in October-December 2024, or 15pc of the USDA wheat export target, 46pc of which was exported from eastern states ports, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. By Edward Dunlop GrainCorp Grain Volumes mn t FY25 FY24 % ± Carry-In (1 Oct) 2.5 3.9 -36.0 Receivals 13-14 10.1 29 to 39 Domestic outload 5.5-6.5 5.9 -7 to 10 Exports 6.5-7.5 5.6 16 to 34 Carry-out 2.5-3.5 2.5 0 to 40 Total grain handled 31-33 28 11 to 18 GrainCorp Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US reciprocal tariffs could hit Brazilian ethanol


25/02/13
25/02/13

US reciprocal tariffs could hit Brazilian ethanol

New York, 13 February (Argus) — Brazil's growing ethanol industry is a likely target for "reciprocal" US tariffs that President Donald Trump plans to impose on products from countries that he says discriminate against US imports. In announcing the plan Thursday to raise US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on US exports, Trump did not specify which countries and products would face the new levies. But a White House fact sheet specifically mentions Brazil's treatment of US ethanol as an unfair practice worth addressing. "The US tariff on ethanol is a mere 2.5pc. Yet Brazil charges the US ethanol exports a tariff of 18pc," the White House said. The US produces more ethanol than any other country, almost all derived from corn. Brazil, the world's second largest ethanol producer, largely uses sugarcane as a feedstock but has a fast-growing corn ethanol industry, too. The disparity in tariff rates has long frustrated US producers, who have become reliant on export markets since ethanol's growth in the US is limited by rising vehicle fuel efficiency, electric vehicle adoption and regulatory constraints on higher blends. The US exported more than 1.9bn USG of ethanol last year according to the Renewable Fuels Association, an all-time high. Renewable Fuels Association general counsel Ed Hubbard told Argus last week that his organization raised the issue of Brazilian tariffs with Trump transition staffers, and the office of senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said he discussed the same at a recent meeting with Jamieson Greer, Trump's nominee to be US trade representative. Greer said at a recent Senate hearing that Brazil's tariff on US ethanol was among his top priorities. Federal agencies are planning to review trade disparities and report back by 1 April, potentially giving countries like Brazil some time to consider policy changes that might avoid tariffs. Hubbard said he sees the threat of tariffs as a tool to bring Brazil back to the negotiating table on reducing its own restrictions, potentially allowing more US ethanol to enter the country and meet increasingly ambitious national targets for biofuel adoption. At the same time, Brazil could negotiate for changes to US trade barriers, such as a tariff rate quota system for sugar imports and a new 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports. If the US does ultimately increase taxes on Brazilian ethanol, trade flows might not change much in the near term. Ethanol trade between the two countries has already dropped off significantly, and the US is oversupplied with renewable fuels used to meet federal blend mandates. While essentially all foreign ethanol in the US is from Brazil, the US imported less fuel ethanol in 2024 than in at least 30 years. But new tariffs would hurt LanzaJet, a US biofuel producer with a plant that imports Brazilian ethanol and refines it into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). While the company says it can and does use other feedstocks, federal and state clean fuel programs treat Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as lower-carbon. LanzaJet thus earns larger subsidies for producing fuel from sugarcane ethanol than if it used more corn ethanol, which is generally too carbon-intensive to qualify for a new US biofuel tax credit. "Tariffs impacting nascent industries like SAF will undoubtedly hurt the United States' potential to continue to lead in this space — limiting our ability to import necessary resources and export our own for the global market, given aviation is a global industry," LanzaJet vice president for corporate affairs Meg Whitty said. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ReElement begins RE shipments, eyes Africa plant


25/02/13
25/02/13

ReElement begins RE shipments, eyes Africa plant

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — Critical minerals refiner ReElement Technologies began commercial shipments of magnet-grade rare earth (RE) elements, as it looks to scale operations by expanding an Indiana facility and deepening its presence in Africa. The Indiana-based company manufactured heavy and light RE oxides primarily from recycled feedstock sourced primarily from end-of-life permanent magnets used in wind turbines and electric vehicles at its 700m2 facility in Noblesville, ReElement commercial marketing officer David Sauve told Argus on Wednesday. ReElement did not disclose how much product has been sent to customers since shipments began last week, only noting that Noblesville, Indiana, has daily output capacities of 5-10kg for RE oxides and 15-25kg of battery-grade lithium carbonate. The company is transitioning operations to its 50,000m2 refinery in Marion, Indiana, which will be able to turn out 2,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr of RE oxides and 5,000t/yr of battery-grade lithium in either carbonate or hydroxide form when first-phase production begins by year-end, Sauve said. Marion will have the capability to process feedstock from ores, in addition to recycled sources. ReElement also entered into a partnership with South Africa-based Novare Holdings to invest $100mn in building out refining capacity of critical minerals in Africa. The companies currently are working to pick a location for their first facility, expecting to start developing the site in 2025's second half. Under the agreement, ReElement will provide its chromatography-based separation and purification technology, along with project management expertise, while Novare will supply funding and operational oversight. Capacity figures for the African plant have yet to be determined, Sauve said. Feedstock will come from local and regional sources. Joining the antimony rush ReElement plans to add antimony products to its suite of offerings, looking to capitalize on a high-margin opportunity and help fill a void after China banned shipments of the metal to the US. Prices for 99.65pc antimony metal have surged by more than 150pc since late August, when China first implemented export restrictions that effectively cut off supply from the world's largest source, according to Argus data. The company in late January expanded its relationship with a South Africa supplier from whom ReElement will source antimony-bearing ore to refine into antimony sulfide and antimony oxide. It already has processed ore samples into sulfide at Noblesville and expects to add commercial-scale production capacity at Marion. Sauve added that ReElement's modular technology could be co-located with "downstream manufacturers of antimony-containing military applications," as well. The company plans to take 1,000t/month of ore initially, saying that total could grow based on market needs. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Upper Mississippi River ice tops 5-year average


25/02/13
25/02/13

Upper Mississippi River ice tops 5-year average

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — Ice measurements taken Wednesday to gauge when barges can transit the upper Mississippi River exceeded the five-year average, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The annual Lake Pepin ice reports — taken by the Corps in February and March at Lake Pepin south of Minneapolis — are a bellwether for when barge transit can resume on the upper Mississippi River. This year's first report found ice at the lake was 19in thick on 12 February, 8in thicker than last year's measurement and 3in above the five-year average. The Corps' initial report last year found only 11in of ice at the lake, thin enough for waterborne traffic to break through. Subsequent reports were cancelled after the Corps said it would be too hazardous for crews and equipment to take additional measurements. Locks along the upper Mississippi River are anticipated to remain closed through 3 March, the Rock Island Corps district in Illinois said on 5 February. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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