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IMF upgrades global growth outlook

  • : Crude oil
  • 25/01/17

The IMF is taking a slightly more upbeat view of the prospects for the global economy, revising upward its expectations for the US economy.

But IMF officials are warning about the potential for higher inflation in the US if president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his threats to impose broad tariffs on all US imports from Canada, Mexico and China.

"Higher tariffs or immigration curbs will play out like negative supply shocks, reducing output and adding to price pressures," IMF head of research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

In an update to its World Economic Outlook released today, the IMF projected the global economy will grow by what it called a "stable, albeit lackluster rate" of 3.3pc this year and again by 3.3pc in 2026.

The IMF's new 2025 outlook is 0.1 percentage points higher than its 3.2pc forecast in its October report.

The IMF expects the US economy, spurred by continued strength in domestic demand, to grow by 2.7pc this year, a 0.5 percentage point increase from its forecast in October.

China's economy is projected to grow by 4.6pc this year, up by 0.1 percentage point from the IMF's October forecast. The euro area is expected to grow by 1pc.

Last year, the world economy grew by an estimated 3.2pc, compared with 3.3pc in 2023, the IMF said.

IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including at the Paris-based energy watchdog IEA, to model oil demand projections.

Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2pc this year and 3.5pc in 2026, with pricing pressures easing in advanced economies more quickly than in emerging and developing economies.

Gourinchas noted that while it is difficult to quantify the effects of the policy changes Trump has vowed to implement, "they are likely to push inflation higher in the near term" relative to the IMF's baseline. Looser fiscal policy or deregulation would stimulate demand and increase inflation, as spending and investment rise.

"A combination of surging demand and shrinking supply would likely reignite US price pressures, though the effect on economic output in the near term would be ambiguous," Gourinchas said.

IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva and other economists have warned in recent years about the rising tide of protectionist measures implemented by the advanced economies, including the US and the EU.

A recent IMF forecast scenario that involves a trade war between the US, Europe and China would reduce the global and US GDP annual growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points in 2025-30, with smaller effects in the eurozone and China.

That scenario did not account for a possible trade war between the US and its immediate neighbors, which also has the potential to disrupt an integrated North American energy market.


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25/02/07

Crude Summit:Tariff talk boosts TMX interest: Update

Crude Summit:Tariff talk boosts TMX interest: Update

Updates with details from Trans Mountain. Houston, 7 February (Argus) — The potential for tariffs on US imports of Canadian crude have driven shipper interest in exporting from Trans Mountain's docks on the west coast of Canada, as the pipeline's federal operator is weighing plans for expansions to boost the system's capacity by 200,000-300,000 b/d by the end of the decade. The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which came on line in May 2024, boosted the total capacity of the Trans Mountain system to 890,000 b/d, opening new avenues for Canadian producers to reach Asian markets. Trans Mountain has seen a "flurry of activity" in booking TMX capacity since US president Donald Trump's administration announced its intent to slap tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, Trans Mountain senior director of business development Jason Balasch told the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas. "The last few weeks, all of January, there's been a lot of interest from people who had not yet shipped on the line yet," Balasch said. Those tariffs on Canada and Mexico were set to take effect on 4 February, but Trump this week put them on pause until early March, pointing to progress in negotiations. "The tariffs have opened all level of government's eyes to talk of expansions," Balasch said. "We definitely expected it to drive demand for the dock." The TMX line has run recently at about 80pc of capacity, Balasch said. The 200,000-300,000 b/d expansion of the Trans Mountain system could be completed within four to five years, Balasch said. That expansion would be accomplished mostly by adding pumping capacity to the system's two existing lines. There are no plans to add a third pipeline to the system, he said. "We are focused on the quickest and economical way" to "increase access to the tidewater", he said. "I think everyone sees an egress constraint coming," Balasch said. The unpredictable tariffs situation has put expansion under a "magnifying glass," but Trans Mountain has not yet shopped its plans to shippers. The dual-line Trans Mountain system connects the trading hub of Edmonton, Alberta, to the Westridge Marine Terminal (WMT) in Burnaby, British Columbia, but volumes also go to the Burnaby refinery and southbound to Washington state via the Puget Sound Pipeline. There were 24 vessels loaded at the WMT in January, translating into about 425,000 b/d being exported on Canada's west coast during the month, meaning there is some room to expand the dock's 630,000 b/d capacity. Incremental heavy Canadian crude from Trans Mountain could be destined for China, as the US west coast is capped out at 200,000 b/d, Matt Smith, lead oil analyst Americas at Kpler, told the conference. That would require China to likely scale back on crudes from other origins amid slowing demand, Smith said. "Over the last couple of years Chinese crude imports have essentially flat-lined as their refinery runs have flat-lined," said Smith. This week's delay suggests the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports "are not going to come to fruition", Smith said. "There is a willingness to reach an agreement." By Chris Baltimore and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs have ‘pluses and minuses’: ConocoPhillips


25/02/07
25/02/07

Tariffs have ‘pluses and minuses’: ConocoPhillips

New York, 7 February (Argus) — Threatened US tariffs targeting Canadian imports have both "pluses and minuses" for US independent producer ConocoPhillips which has production on both sides of the northern border. The company's primary exposure to tariffs would center upon sales from its Surmont oil sands operations in Alberta, Canada, into the US. "We sell around half of our Surmont liquids into the US on a mix of pipeline and rail," said Andy O'Brien, ConocoPhillips senior vice president for strategy, commercial, sustainability and technology. "But the remainder is actually transported to the Canadian West coast or sold in the local Alberta market." If tariffs were to be implemented, it is "pretty difficult" to say exactly who would carry the burden -- producers or buyers -- he added. "The refiners in the Midwest and the Rockies have less options to substitute versus, say, the Gulf coast or the west coast refiners," O'Brien said. The company's diversified portfolio would also help shelter it from some exposure. "If we were to see tariffs, we'd likely see strengthening differentials for Bakken, for [Alaska North Slope crude] and possibly even the Permian," said O'Brien. "So lots of moving parts." Like others in the oil industry, ConocoPhillips is looking at the potential to supply power to cater to the boom in AI data centers. "It's got to be competitive for capital, but it certainly looks like some growth opportunities potentially coming, and we're assessing some of those opportunities right now," chief executive officer Ryan Lance told analysts after posting fourth quarter results. Although the Trump administration has called on domestic producers to step up output, Lance said his priority was to drive further efficiencies in operations. "A lot of our focus and attention right now is on permitting reform," Lance said, and the need to build out energy infrastructure. Drilling approvals, rights of ways, and permits on federal land all slowed under the administration of former-president Joe Biden and there is an opportunity now to get back on track. "That just adds to the overall efficiency of the system and should lead to a more sustained plateau or growth in our production coming out of the Lower 48 in terms of liquids and certainly the growing amount of gas volumes that are coming as well," Lance said. "So it just creates a better environment for investment and more efficient operations." Full-year 2025 output at ConocoPhillips is seen in the range of 2.34mn-2.38mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), which includes 20,000 boe/d of planned turnarounds. Fourth quarter 2024 profit fell to $2.3bn from $3bn in the final three months of 2023, as higher volumes were more than offset by acquisition-related expenses and lower prices. Averaged realized prices fell 10pc to $52.37/boe from the fourth quarter of 2023. Fourth quarter output of 2.18mn boe/d represented an increase of 281,000 boe/d from the same quarter of the previous year. After adjusting for acquisitions and dispositions, output grew by 6pc. As part of a $2bn divestment goal, ConocoPhillips has signed agreements to sell non-core Lower 48 assets for $600mn. They are expected to close in the first half of the year. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Crude Summit:Tariff talk boosts TMX pipeline interest


25/02/07
25/02/07

Crude Summit:Tariff talk boosts TMX pipeline interest

Houston, 7 February (Argus) — The potential for tariffs on US imports of Canadian crude have driven shipper interest in exporting from Trans Mountain's docks on the west coast of Canada, and the pipeline's federal operator is weighing plans for expansions that could boost the system's capacity by 200,000-300,000 b/d over the next four to five years. The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which came on line in May 2024, boosted the total capacity of the Trans Mountain system to 890,000 b/d, opening new avenues for Canadian producers to reach Asian markets. Trans Mountain has seen a "flurry of activity" in booking TMX capacity since US president Donald Trump's administration announced its intent to slap tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, Trans Mountain senior director of business development Jason Balasch told the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas. Those tariffs on Canada and Mexico were originally set to take effect on 1 February, but Trump this week put them on pause until early March, pointing to progress in negotiations. "The tariffs have opened all level of government's eyes to talk of expansions," Balasch said. "We definitely expected it to drive demand for the dock." The TMX line has run recently at about 80pc of capacity, Balasch said. Trans Mountain is weighing a potential 200,000-300,000 b/d expansion of the Trans Mountain system, to be completed within four to five years, Balasch said. That expansion would be accomplished mostly by adding pumping capacity to the system's existing two lines. There are no plans to add a third pipeline to the system, he said. "We are focused on the quickest and economical way" to "increase access to the tidewater", he said. This week's delay suggests the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports "are not going to come to fruition", Matt Smith, lead oil analyst Americas at Kpler, told the conference. "There is a willingness to reach an agreement." By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Crude Summit: Argentina coexisting with TMX crude line


25/02/06
25/02/06

Crude Summit: Argentina coexisting with TMX crude line

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — Competition into the western US from the expansion of Trans Mountain's 890,000 b/d crude pipeline system in western Canada was not as severe as feared by Argentina producers. There is "still a place" for Argentina's Medanito crude on the US west coast, Francisco Villamil, executive trading manager at upstream producer Vista, said at the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston. Argentina producers were "pretty concerned" when the expansion went into service last May. At first, they felt price effects of the increased supply in the Pacific basin, but differentials stabilized and 50pc of TMX exports now go to Asia. The TMX system connects producers in Alberta to the docks at Burnaby, adjacent to Vancouver, British Columbia, and its capacity roughly tripled when the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) went into service. TMX has been a popular outlet for shippers, both for selling to US west coast refiners and also for producers looking to bypass the US altogether and target Asian countries. Since the TMX expansion came on line, the US west coast has received about 159,000 b/d from Vancouver, or 48pc of total Vancouver crude exports, according to Vortexa. Most of the remaining Vancouver exports went to China. Argentina averaged a record-breaking 717,100 b/d of crude production in 2024, the country's energy secretary reported. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Crude Summit: Tariffs risk drying up forward trading


25/02/06
25/02/06

Crude Summit: Tariffs risk drying up forward trading

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — US tariffs aimed against its largest trading partners creates both opportunity and uncertainty for traders, but the threat alone also dissuades trading oil too far forward. "It's not just whether tariffs come in, but it's the threat of tariffs coming in," Equinor vice president of crude trading and refinery optimization Simon James told delegates at the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas, on Thursday. The expectation of tariffs has the risk of drying up some forward trading. "People will be nervous about committing too far forward," said James, highlighting the severity of the threats made by US president Donald Trump against its North American neighbors. "The fact that the initial tariffs around Canada and Mexico were so punitive at 25pc, how someone handles that risk ... is extremely difficult," said Simon. "I think that's something the market is starting to work through and I don't think there's a good answer yet." Buying patterns have already been disrupted with traders re-thinking traditional flows in light of the potential tariffs, whether they come or not. "Already today, traders and people who are trying to connect the dots, are looking into how they should change their buying patterns," SOCAR chief trading officer Taghi Taghi-Zada said on the panel. While the actual imposition of tariffs would be an important milestone, he said, the fact people are speaking about them with confidence has already affected the markets. Traders on the edge of information flow will be better equipped to make some kind of prediction and manage exposures, said Taghi-Zada, while Barbara Harrison, vice president of crude supply and trading at Chevron, expects news headlines are what will continue to drive volatility in the near term. "For us as traders, it also creates market opportunity, but it certainly does create a lot of market uncertainty," said Harrison. "We're going to continue to have that long-term fundamental drive on markets, and short-term headline drive on markets," said Harrison. She expects the short-term to be centered around tariffs and conflict in the Middle East and long-term related to Chinese demand and supply from Opec+ nations. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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