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Export opportunities crucial for Turkish mills in 2025

  • : Metals
  • 25/01/17

Waning prospects for the Turkish domestic rebar market means domestic steel mills are keeping a close eye on developments in potential key export destinations, as well as in key global demand drivers China and the US.

The recent ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas could lead to a recovery of Turkish exports to Israel in the coming months, while there is some expectation that the Chinese government will announce further stimulus packages once Donald Trump is inaugurated as US president on 20 January for a second term. At the same time, mills producers will be keen for the Turkish government to persuade Syria's new government to soften its stance on its steep hike in import duties announced earlier this week.

Post-earthquake reconstruction work in southern Turkey is not likely to provide the same level of support to prices this year that it did last year. Earthquakes struck in the Iskenderun region of Turkey and in northern Syria in February 2023, eventually resulting in strong demand for rebar used for reconstruction work throughout most of last year. But the premium enjoyed by Iskenderun-based steelmakers as a result has become a discount in recent weeks as demand has faded, and with local supply so far failing to respond. In housing projects, rebar is required mainly in the foundations of buildings, and so even for projects that are not yet completed, the spike in rebar demand in the region may have run its course.

Recent acquisitions in the Iskenderun region by major producers Habas and Tosyali are squeezing local prices, with Tosyali's July acquisition, the former Bastug steelworks, currently operating at 75pc capacity, or 3,000 t/d, according to local sources. There could be further consolidations and also an idling of capacity in the Turkish market in the coming months, as smaller companies struggle against tepid demand and elevated costs. Tosyali is considering making a bid for Izmir-based longs producer Ege Celik, market sources said.

The export market will continue to be a challenge for Turkish suppliers this year, as it has been for the past few years, and Trump's return to office is set to push the world towards more trade barriers. The Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, approved by the Israeli parliament today, could lead to an outlet for Turkish steel, as the Turkish government is expected to quietly allow companies to export to Israel again if fighting does not resume. Before the conflict broke out, Israel was a major destination for Turkish rebar.

The Turkish trade ministry today said it will meet with Syrian representatives next week to pursue a free trade deal, following the new Syrian government's decision to raise import tariffs steeply with immediate effect, with duties on some commodities increasing fourfold. If the higher tariffs remain in place, it could significantly dent southern Turkish rebar producers' hopes of selling large volumes to Syria from later this year onwards as the country starts to rebuild following several years of civil war.

Overall, Turkish mills will be more reliant on export opportunities this year than in 2024, with much ultimately depending on the extent to which Chinese exports continue to pressure the global steel market. The International Rebar Exporters' Association today said its hopes for a real resurgence in Chinese domestic steel demand were muted, implying that Chinese export volumes are likely to remain elevated after hitting record levels in 2024.


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25/02/10

US tariffs could impact 15pc of EU HRC exports

US tariffs could impact 15pc of EU HRC exports

London, 10 February (Argus) — US 25pc blanket tariffs, expected later today , could affect around 15pc of EU hot-rolled coil (HRC) exports, according to latest data for 2024. This will depend on whether the current quotas system is replaced, and if exclusions are again granted. The EU exported 325,843t of HRC in January-November 2024 to the US, out of total exports of 2.16mn t. Currently the EU is one of few exporters that are subject to tariff-rate quotas, of around 270,000 t/yr for HRC, divided by country. Any material imported above the quotas is subject to a 25pc tax. In addition, exclusions from the measures in the US have been granted to specific buyers for a total of just under 200,000 t/yr of EU HRC. EU cold-rolled exports to the US in the same period amounted to 229,851t and hot-dipped galvanised to 386,082t, 19.2pc and 14pc of the total, respectively. Rebar and wire rod exports constituted 15.8pc and 12.2pc of the total each. Market participants said this morning that assessing the impact of such measures is impossible without details if the quotas will remain in place. The move is however likely to weigh on the European market, which has already been experiencing slowed demand. One trader noted that most of the bloc's flat steel exports are specialties, for which there are no alternatives available in the US market, and as such will be subject to exclusions. Most notably, protectionist measures from the US are likely to incentivise the European Commission, which is currently conducting a review of its steel safeguard measures, to be more stringent with it. The commission is examining the effectiveness of its tariff-rate-quotas, imposed in 2018 as a response to the US' Section 232 measures, which were expected to divert steel destined to the US to the EU instead. The outcome of the review is expected by 31 March. The commission said today that it would not respond to "broad announcements without details or written clarification". But there is no justification for the imposition of tariffs on its exports and the EU will "react". The commission further noted that the imposition of tariffs would be "unlawful and economically counterproductive, especially given the deeply integrated production chains of the EU and US". Speaking to public television, French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot said Europe will "react" as it did in 2018, adding that the commission had given assurances that it would act once at the right moment. "The moment has come," Barrot said. By Lora Stoyanova and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador


25/02/10
25/02/10

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador

Quito, 10 February (Argus) — Ecuador will hold a second-round presidential election on 13 April after incumbent President Daniel Noboa had a closer-than-expected lead over his main challenger in Sunday's election, the electoral authority said. Noboa had 44.5pc of votes as of 11:30pm ET on Sunday, closely followed by Luisa Gonzalez, the candidate for the Citizens' Revolution party with 44.1pc, with 80pc of votes counted, the national electoral council (CNE) said. Ecuador's presidential election goes to a second round if the winning candidate does not have more than 50pc of votes or 40pc of votes with a 10-percentage point lead over the runner-up. Gonzalez' party was founded by exiled former president Rafael Correa, a close friend and supporter of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Correa guided taking on crude-backed loans from China during his term and oversaw a rewrite of the constitution, allowing him to serve for 10 years. Gonzalez in brief comments said she was optimistic about winning the second round, while Noboa did not speak publicly. This is the first time since 2006 that the candidate with Correa's party did not win at least the initial round of a presidential race. Pachacutik candidate Leonidas Iza was in third place with 4.8pc of votes. His party is the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) that led an 18-day national strike in June 2022, cutting Ecuador's crude production by 17pc that month. The remaining 13 candidates obtained about 6.6pc of the valid votes. About 13.7mn Ecuadorians were required to appear at the polls. Voting is mandatory in the South American country, but only around 85pc actually voted. Ecuadorians also voted for 151 members of the national assembly. Gonazalez' party and Noboa's National Democratic Action party are forecast to win the biggest shares, but officials results will not be known for several days. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nippon to invest in, not buy, US Steel: Trump


25/02/07
25/02/07

Nippon to invest in, not buy, US Steel: Trump

Pittsburgh, 7 February (Argus) — US President Donald Trump said today Nippon Steel has agreed to invest in US Steel instead of buying the company outright. "Nissan is going to be doing something very exciting about US Steel. They'll be looking at an investment rather than a purchase," Trump said today at a news conference in Washington with Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump likely mistakenly referred to Tokyo-based Nippon Steel by the name of the Japanese car company. Although the White House did not immediately respond to a request for clarification, Nissan confirmed to Argus that it does not have plans to invest in US Steel. Trump's predecessor Joe Biden blocked Nippon Steel's proposed $15bn takeover bid of Pittsburgh-based US Steel last month, citing national security concerns. Both men were adamant on the campaign trail that US Steel should not be owned by a foreign company. "We didn't want to see [US Steel] leave. It wouldn't actually leave. But the concept psychologically — not good," Trump said. Nippon Steel will provide technology to make steel in the US in a mutually beneficial deal, Ishiba said about the proposal. Trump said he would soon meet with Nippon Steel to work out the details of the investment. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s domestic EV sales extend fall in January


25/02/07
25/02/07

Japan’s domestic EV sales extend fall in January

Tokyo, 7 February (Argus) — Japanese domestic sales of passenger electric vehicles (EVs) fell for a 15th consecutive month in January, but the decrease rate has slowed. Sales totalled 4,563 units in January 2025, down by 2pc from a year earlier, according to data from three industry groups — the Automobile Dealers Association, the Japan Light Motor Vehicle and Motorcycle Association and the Japan Automobile Importers Association (JAIA). Sales were also down by 12pc on the month. Domestic EV sales continued to fall on the year but the decrease rate slowed in January, marking the first single-digit fall on the year since November 2023. EVs accounted for 1.4pc of Japan's total domestic passenger car sales in January, down by 0.2 percentage points from a year earlier. The decline is mostly because of weaker demand for domestic brand EVs including Toyota. Toyota's EV sales declined sharply to 68 units, down by 74pc from a year earlier. Foreign brand EV sales continued its uptrend, according to JAIA's representative who spoke to Argus . Sales of foreign brand passenger EVs increased by 3.6pc on the year to 1,209 units, marking the third consecutive month of year-on-year growth. But sales from China's BYD fell sharply by around 80pc on the year to 42 units, mostly on the back of delivery suspensions, JAIA added. Imported EVs accounted for around 26pc of Japan's total domestic EV sales. This was largely stable on the year, but down by 31 percentage points from a month earlier. Foreign brand manufacturers tend to increase their sales in December, according to JAIA, leading to relatively lower deliveries in January. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sherritt raises Ni, Co output guidance for 2025


25/02/06
25/02/06

Sherritt raises Ni, Co output guidance for 2025

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — Canadian mining and metal producer Sherritt International raised its output guidance for nickel and cobalt metal for 2025. The company anticipates producing between 31,000 and 33,000 metric tonnes (t) of nickel and 3,300 to 3,600t of cobalt in 2025. This compares with the 30,331t of finished nickel and 3,206t of cobalt produced in 2024, both of which were within the annual guidance range. Last year was a challenging year for Sherritt because of natural disasters and power infrastructure challenges in Cuba, but the company remains well positioned to navigate current market conditions and maintain competitiveness despite Chinese-driven supply pressures, according to president and chief executive Leon Binedell. Output in 2025 will be supported by improved availability of mixed sulphides from the Moa mine site in Cuba to the refinery. Production is expected to be weighted towards the second half of the year. "We continue to advance key strategic initiatives including our mixed hydroxide precipitate project targeting the North American electric vehicle market," Binedell added. By Carol Luk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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