Canada’s tariff response will be ‘forceful’: Trudeau

: Crude oil, LPG, Natural gas
25/01/31

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau is planning an immediate retaliation should US president Donald Trump impose a 25pc tariff on imports tomorrow, 1 February.

"If the president does choose to implement any tariffs against Canada, we are ready with a response," said Trudeau at a meeting of the Council on Canada-US Relations in Toronto. "A purposeful, forceful, but reasonable, immediate response."

"It's not what we want, but if he moves forward, we will also act," he said.

Trump has accused Canada and Mexico of facilitating trafficking of fentanyl and illegal migration and has threatened tariffs to persuade the two countries to tighten borders they share with the US.

"Our border is safe and secure," said Trudeau. "We're committed to keeping it that way by addressing current challenges and strengthening our capacity."

Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum said this week Mexico is also ready to respond to US tariffs. "We will always defend respect for our sovereignty and a dialogue as equals, but without subordination," she said.

Canada in mid-December said it would spend C$1.3bn ($900bn) on border security measures over six years, which Trudeau reiterated Friday while highlighting recent progress. The 8,891-kilometre (5,525-miles) US-Canada border is the longest in the world.

Trump has also railed against the US' trade deficit with Canada, which is on track to settle at about C$65bn in 2024, according to TD Bank. The bank notes the deficit is largely a result of America's thirst for energy and should not be confused with a "subsidy".

Canada has increased deliveries of crude to the US beyond 4mn b/d and supplied 8.36 Bcf/d (86.35bn m³/yr) of natural gas in January-October, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). US refiners that process Canadian crude would not easily find alternative supplies, according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM).

"We won't relent until tariffs are removed, and of course, everything is on the table," Trudeau said of Canada's potential retaliation, a message that has drawn concern from the premier of oil-rich Alberta who wants the unfettered flow of energy.

All told, the two highly-integrated countries exchange about C$3.6bn of goods and services each day, only slightly less than daily US-Mexico trade, TD Bank said last week.

By Brett Holmes

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25/03/21

US ethane output, demand at records in 2024: EIA

Houston, 21 March (Argus) — US ethane production rose to a record last year on higher prices relative to natural gas, while exports and domestic consumption climbed to new highs on increased petrochemical demand, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Thursday. US ethane output in 2024 rose by 6.8pc to an all-time high of 2.83mn b/d, up from 2.65mn b/d in 2023, according to EIA data. Most of the production increase came from the Permian basin, with Texas inland output increasing by 139,000 b/d to a record 1.58mn b/d and New Mexico refining districts rising by 9,000 b/d to 191,000 b/d, also a record. In the US east coast, the Appalachian No. 1 refining district, comprising much of the Marcellus shale formation in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, increased production by 37,000 b/d to a record 327,000 b/d, accounting for 12pc of total US production, up from 11pc in 2023. The production hike resulted from higher rates of ethane recovery from the natural gas stream, EIA said. Recovery was incentivized as ethane prices strengthened relative to natural gas. During 2024, Mont Belvieu, EPC ethane's premium to its fuel value — based on day-ahead natural gas at the Waha hub in west Texas — averaged 17.91¢/USG, up from 13.64¢/USG in 2023, even as outright ethane prices averaged 5.55¢/USG lower at 19.02¢/USG, according to Argus data. The increase in Permian ethane recovery resulted in large part from negative Waha gas prices for large swaths of the year. US consumption rises 8.4pc Product supplied of ethane, a measure of domestic consumption, rose last year by 8.4pc to a record 2.33mn b/d, up from 2.15mn b/d in 2023, according to EIA data. Consumption rose to records in the US east coast and Gulf coast regions, driven entirely by higher cracker operating rates, as no new ethane crackers came online during the year. Ethane consumption in the US Gulf coast rose by 109,000 b/d to 2.1mn b/d, while consumption in the US east coast nearly tripled to 103,000 b/d, up from 37,000 b/d in 2023. The east coast surge was driven by Shell's 1.6mn t/yr Monaca, Pennsylvania, ethane cracker ramping up production after coming online near the end of 2022 . Exports climb 4.5pc US ethane exports last year rose by 4.5pc to a record 492,000 b/d, up by 21,000 b/d from 2023, the EIA reported. China took the bulk of shipments and saw the largest increase in imports, spurred by increased petrochemical demand and ramped-up construction of import infrastructure. The US exported 227,000 b/d of ethane to China, up by 14,000 b/d from 2023. Ethane exports to Canada rose to 76,000 b/d, up by 11,000 b/d from 2023, while exports to India fell by 9,000 b/d to 65,000 b/d. Ethane shipments to Mexico averaged 21,000 b/d last year, up from 17,000 b/d in 2023. The Asia-Pacific region last year took nearly 60pc of US ethane exports, followed by the Americas at just over 20pc and Europe at just under 20pc. The Americas were broadly responsible for most of the growth in imports from the US year-on-year, with receipts up by 17,000 b/d and the proportion of the total rising for the first time since 2020. The proportion of exports going to the Asia-Pacific region fell for the first time since 2018, in part because attacks in the Red Sea slowed exports to India during the first half of 2024. Ethane exports from the US are poised to rise further in the next three years, as Enterprise Products' new Neches River terminal in Texas, which will be able to ship up to 360,000 b/d of ethane or propane, is scheduled for operations in starting in 2026. Energy Transfer's Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, export terminal, which can ship 75,000 b/d of ethane, is adding refrigeration to boost its capacity to 90,000 b/d. By Joseph Barbour Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ overproducers outline new compensation plans

25/03/21

Opec+ overproducers outline new compensation plans

London, 21 March (Argus) — Seven Opec+ members have submitted plans to the Opec secretariat detailing how they intend to compensate for producing above their crude production targets since January 2024. The plans show that Iraq, Kazakhstan, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia will reduce their combined output by an average of 263,000 b/d over the 15 months to June next year (see table) . This is to compensate for exceeding their production targets by a cumulative 4.203mn b/d between January 2024 and February 2025. This figure does not represent a monthly average, but rather the sum of the monthly volumes by which the group's overproducers have surpassed their respective output ceilings. It works out to an average monthly overproduction of 300,000 b/d in the same period. If implemented fully, these compensation related cuts would partly offset a plan by these seven members plus Algeria to return 2.2mn b/d of voluntary production cuts starting in April over 18 months. In fact, the scheduled output increases for April and May would be entirely wiped out. But there is no guarantee the compensation related cuts will be delivered. Some members, Iraq and Kazakhstan in particular, have largely failed to deliver on past commitments to reduce output to below their production targets. By Aydin Calik Opec+ overproduction compensation plan* Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia UAE Kazakhstan Oman Russia Total Mar-25 116 15 38 5 25 199 Apr-25 116 8 9 5 53 7 51 249 May-25 135 15 6 10 57 10 76 309 Jun-25 130 23 10 72 12 102 349 Jul-25 120 30 10 66 14 127 367 Aug-25 115 38 10 81 18 152 414 Sep-25 120 27 10 85 20 173 435 Oct-25 120 10 90 13 233 Nov-25 120 20 84 224 Dec-25 120 20 49 189 Jan-26 123 33 39 195 Feb-26 123 33 38 194 Mar-26 123 33 40 196 Apr-26 123 50 38 211 May-26 125 55 42 222 Jun-26 125 56 36 217 Average reduction 262.7 *the amount by which members pledge to produce below their existing targets each month Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada needs more oil pipelines: PM Carney

25/03/20

Canada needs more oil pipelines: PM Carney

Calgary, 20 March (Argus) — Canada needs to build more oil pipelines to reduce its dependence on foreign supplies while opening up new trade corridors for exports, prime minister Mark Carney said today, amid an escalating trade war with the US. "It's about getting things done. It's about getting, yes, getting pipelines built, across this country, so we that can displace imports of foreign oil," Carney said while in Edmonton, Alberta. A US-triggered trade war has sparked an urgent need across Canada to diversify its trading partners and limit the country's reliance on the US. This has lifted public support for getting pipelines and other infrastructure energy projects built. The prime minister envisions the federal government "using all of its power" and new legislation to expedite such projects, adding "additional levers" will be discussed when he meets with provincial premiers on 21 March. "We need to do things that had not been imagined or had not been thought possible, at a speed we haven't seen before," said Carney. "That's the nature of the time." TC Energy's current chief executive along with 13 other executives from the country's largest oil and gas companies urged the federal government this week to declare a "Canadian energy crisis" to expedite infrastructure projects. General election soon Carney is expected to call a general election soon with his Liberal party riding high in the polls. Despite the Liberals' recent track record on energy infrastructure, Carney is looking to appeal to Alberta voters eager for pipelines who typically vote for the rival, pro-oil patch Conservatives. A combined C$280bn ($194bn) of Canadian oil and natural gas projects have been cancelled over the past decade, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Of this, C$164bn in the form of LNG projects, C$63bn in pipeline projects, C$30bn in oil sands projects and C$22bn in refinery projects. TC Energy's 1.1mn b/d Energy East pipeline is commonly referenced by industry as a nation-building project that, proposed in 2013, would have supplied Albertan oil to eastern Canada but was abandoned because of changing regulations. There was still no clear indication of when a decision by the federal government could be obtained when TC Energy cancelled it in 2017. Energy East would have piped oil as far east as Irving Oil's 320,000 b/d refinery in Saint John, New Brunswick, which relies on foreign imports, while also giving shippers an outlet to export to Europe and beyond. Canada imported 490,000 b/d of crude in 2023, according to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Of this, 355,000 b/d came from the US, 63,000 b/d from Nigeria and 53,000 b/d from Saudi Arabia. Canada meanwhile produces about 5mn b/d, sending about 80pc of that to the US. Carney's infrastructure push includes the proposed Pathways Alliance project in Alberta, which entails a C$16.5bn carbon capture and storage hub that could remove up to 22mn t/yr of CO2 by 2030. Generally, Carney wants to pursue energy and trade corridors and trade including potentially from Alberta to either the Canada's Arctic coast in Nunavut or to Hudson Bay via Churchill, Manitoba. Or both. The subject of trade and pipelines was front and center during a meeting with Alberta premier Danielle Smith earlier in the day, who has criticized the federal Liberals for years. "Albertans will no longer tolerate the way we've been treated by the federal Liberals over the past 10 years," said Smith in a statement, adding a specific list of demands, including "unfettered oil and gas corridors to the north, east and west". The Nunavut project, called the Grays Bay Road and Port Project, is a proposed deepwater port that would cater to critical mineral exports. The proponent, West Kitikmeot Resources, told Argus earlier this month that it had not yet had discussions with Alberta about developing crude capabilities. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit

25/03/20

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit

Houston, 20 March (Argus) — The first towboat arrived at St Paul, Minnesota, today, marking the start of the 2025 navigation season on the upper Mississippi River, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The Neil N. Diehl passed through Lock 2 at Hastings, Minnesota, with nine barges, crossing into St Paul on 19 March. Tows reaching St Paul signify the unofficial start of the navigation season, as St Paul is the last port to open on the Mississippi River after winter ice thaws each year. This is considered an average start time for the navigation season, which typically opens the third week of March. The first tow to reach St Paul in 2024 arrived on 17 March. The Corps released the final Lake Pepin ice measurements of 17in on 12 March and was unable to take new measurements this week since the ice had melted significantly. Lake Pepin measurements help determine when the ice will be thin enough for barges to transit up river. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil central bank raises target rate to 14.25pc

25/03/20

Brazil central bank raises target rate to 14.25pc

Sao Paulo, 20 March (Argus) — Brazil's central bank raised its target interest rate by 1 percentage point to 14.25pc amid accelerating inflation in a decelerating — but still heated — economy. The hike in the target rate, announced Wednesday, was the fifth in a row from a cyclical low of 10.5pc at the end of September last year, partly prompted by accelerating depreciation of the currency, the real, to the US dollar. Brazil's annualized inflation hit 5.06pc in February and is poised to keep accelerating. The bank's Focus economic report increased its inflation forecast to 5.7pc for the end-of-year 2025 from 5.5pc in January, when the bank's policy-making committee last met. Brazil's current government has an inflation ceiling goal of 3pc with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point above or below. The bank has recently changed the way it tracks the inflation goal. Instead of tracking inflation on a calendar year basis, it now monitors the goal on a rolling 12-month basis. The bank cited heated economic activity and a strong labor market as factors that have contributed to rising inflation. But the bank forecasts "modest GDP growth" for Brazil of almost 2pc in 2025, down from 3.4pc growth last year. Further tightening will also be linked to global economic uncertainty prompted by US president Donald Trump's aggressive trade and other policies and the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve , according to the bank. Brazil's target interest rate is expected to keep rising at the bank's next meeting in 6-7 May, albeit to "a lesser extent" as the contributing factors are set to moderate, according to the committee. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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