The potential for tariffs on US imports of Canadian crude have driven shipper interest in exporting from Trans Mountain's docks on the west coast of Canada, and the pipeline's federal operator is weighing plans for expansions that could boost the system's capacity by 200,000-300,000 b/d over the next four to five years.
The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which came on line in May 2024, boosted the total capacity of the Trans Mountain system to 890,000 b/d, opening new avenues for Canadian producers to reach Asian markets.
Trans Mountain has seen a "flurry of activity" in booking TMX capacity since US president Donald Trump's administration announced its intent to slap tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, Trans Mountain senior director of business development Jason Balasch told the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas.
Those tariffs on Canada and Mexico were originally set to take effect on 1 February, but Trump this week put them on pause until early March, pointing to progress in negotiations. "The tariffs have opened all level of government's eyes to talk of expansions," Balasch said. "We definitely expected it to drive demand for the dock." The TMX line has run recently at about 80pc of capacity, Balasch said.
Trans Mountain is weighing a potential 200,000-300,000 b/d expansion of the Trans Mountain system, to be completed within four to five years, Balasch said. That expansion would be accomplished mostly by adding pumping capacity to the system's existing two lines. There are no plans to add a third pipeline to the system, he said.
"We are focused on the quickest and economical way" to "increase access to the tidewater", he said.
This week's delay suggests the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports "are not going to come to fruition", Matt Smith, lead oil analyst Americas at Kpler, told the conference. "There is a willingness to reach an agreement."
