Reopening New Zealand's mothballed 135,000 b/d Marsden Point refinery (MPR) could take six years and cost up to NZ$7.3bn ($4.2bn), according to a government-commissioned study.
MPR, New Zealand's only refinery that is located north of largest city of Auckland, was converted to an oil product import terminal in 2022. The interim report, which was commissioned by New Zealand's National-led government last year, cited Australian professional services firm Worley's estimates that reestablishing refining would require NZ$4.9bn-7.3bn. This imposes significant risks and costs on MPR owner Channel Infrastructure, which has imported oil products since refining ended in 2022.
A reopening would provide more resilience against quality issues with imported fuels, increase stockholding and provide local employment. But this is offset by a dependence on crude imports, with MPR becoming a single point of failure risk, and increased greenhouse gas emissions associated with refining.
Fuel Security Study
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment on 25 February separately released a Fuel Security Study, which found that fuel security remains threatened by supply disruption. It recommends that the nation instead focus on increased storage and zero-emission vehicles instead of reopening MPR.
The strategies considered for improving New Zealand's fuel supply security included reopening the refinery or building a new one, increasing jet fuel and diesel storages, expanding trucking capacity to mitigate against infrastructure failures, investing in biofuels production and increasing uptake of zero-emissions transport.
Resurrecting MPR or building a new refinery for locally produced crude would be inefficient given either expense or the limited effectiveness that a new facility would have in supplying all fuel types required, the study found. The most cost-effective security enhancement is increasing storage levels of diesel and jet fuel, while gasoline was less of a concern given generally high stocks, with more gasoline storages to be converted to other fuels as demand falls owing to electric vehicle (EV) uptake.
EVs will likely diminish New Zealand's reliance on gasoline but diesel use will taper off more slowly given less advanced alternatives, while jet fuel demand is likely to rise without other realistic options in the short term. Biofuels were found to be viable for securing domestic jet fuel and diesel supply, but further study is required and developing this sector would cost more.
About 70pc of New Zealand's fuel imports are from Singapore or South Korea, exposing the country to shipping disruptions, but fuel companies' ability to adjust supply chains would mitigate any major impacts, the study said. Internally, the threat of natural disasters impacting pipelines or import terminals should lead to more thorough planning for such events.
New Zealand would carefully weigh the costs and benefits of the actions suggested in the fuel study, associate energy minister Shane Jones said on 25 February, including considering the creation of energy precincts and special economic zones to spur a domestic biofuels sector.
Jones, a member of the NZ First party in coalition with National, added that creating such zones with special regulations and investment support could help attract overseas investors.
