Ethanol exports drive more US Jan corn demand

: Agriculture, Biofuels
25/03/03

US corn use for ethanol returned to above year-ago levels in January, as ethanol production continued to keep pace with export demand.

US corn use for ethanol production reached 457mn bushels in January, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, 4pc above January 2024 levels.

Corn use in ethanol has remained near or above year-ago levels since July 2023, following escalating US ethanol export demand. US ethanol exports reached 25.5mn bl through January of the 2024-25 marketing year, 37pc more than the same period over the prior year according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

Through January, US ethanol production used 2.3bn bushels of US corn, 2pc above the prior year and on track to reach the 5.5bn bushels mark for the 2024-25 marketing year currently projected by the USDA.

By Ryan Koory

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25/12/22

Viewpoint: Brazil ethanol imports may double in Dec-Mar

Sao Paulo, 22 December (Argus) — Brazil ethanol imports may accelerate in the next three months, reflecting favorable arbitrage for foreign product and a need to boost supply during a period of high prices and tight domestic inventories. Market participants estimate ethanol imports of 230mn-250mn liters (l) (12,000-13,100 b/d) in the four months through March 2026, the off-season for sugarcane in Brazil's top producing central-south region. That would mark the largest volume imported for the four-month period since the 2020-21 crop, when it totaled 274.7mn l, according to data from Brazilian trade ministry Mdic. Ethanol imports totaled almost 243.4mn l between April and November 2025, according to official data. Argentina and Paraguay are expected to be the main suppliers of the product in the coming months. Under the Mercosur agreement, imports from these countries are exempt from an 18pc import levy, which are applied on volumes from the US. The shipments would meet part of domestic demand, which is coming up against smaller inventory levels than in years past. On 30 November, available stocks of hydrous ethanol totaled 4.9bn l, according to data from the agriculture and livestock ministry Mapa. This is 26pc less than in the same period in 2024. Anhydrous ethanol stocks totaled 3.5bn l, 15pc lower than the previous year. Lower stocks are partly due to a sugarcane crop whose development and quality were negatively affected by drought and fires in 2024. The result was lower sugarcane crushing and ethanol production in 2025-26 than in the previous crop. The central-south region produced 29.5bn l of ethanol between the start of the crop in April and 1 December, 5pc lower than the same period in 2024, according to the latest data from the sugarcane and bioenergy industry association Unica. The current cycle had already begun with lower carryover stocks , thanks to strong ethanol consumption through 2024-25. Supply concerns grew with this year's 1 August increase in the percentage of anhydrous blended with gasoline at the retail stage, which grew to 30pc (E30) from 27pc (E27). Throughout the second half of 2025, producers signaled their reluctance to exercise flexibility clauses in anhydrous contracts — which usually allow for an increase of up to 30pc in the volume purchased during the crop-year. Additionally, weather conditions remain a source of concern heading into the new year. A rainy March and April next year could delay the start of the 2026-27 harvest, making supply even tighter. A calming supply mix adjustment A successful shift in the output mix towards ethanol this quarter —and towards anhydrous in particular in the last few weeks — have helped ease supply concerns. The current crop started with expectations that recent investments in crystallization capacity would lift the share of feedstock directed to sugar production to 52pc. But by mid-year sugar was proving less profitable than ethanol , making producers review their strategy and maximize alcohol production . The central-south mix stood at 64.48pc ethanol and 35.52pc sugar in the second half of November, according to Unica. This compares with 55.36pc ethanol and 44.64pc sugar in the same period in 2024. Anhydrous production was also boosted following the E30 announcement. Some corn ethanol mills shifted 100pc of their production to anhydrous ethanol. In the central-south, anhydrous ethanol production totaled 457mn l in the second half of November, up by 10pc from a year earlier, according to Unica. This relief caused the market to adjust its import estimates to more conservative figures. The outlook of approximately 500mn l of ethanol imports in 2025-26, considering the volume realized plus the estimate of 230mn-250mn l, is closer to the lower end of July's forecasts, when participants penciled in imports of 400mn-800mn l in the cycle . By Maria Lígia Barros Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Biogas growth uneven, shipping drives 2026

25/12/22

Viewpoint: Biogas growth uneven, shipping drives 2026

London, 22 December (Argus) — Europe's biomethane market faces uneven growth in 2026, with numerous unsolved policy hurdles and as adoption of the EU's revised renewable energy directive (RED III) reshapes national compliance frameworks. Shipping demand will remain a key driver, particularly for certified subsidised product. RED III's overall 2030 target gives EU member states the option to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 14.5pc, or reach a 29pc renewable energy share. RED II only required countries to reach a 14pc renewable energy share. Some states have already transposed RED III, including the Netherlands and Germany , and pivoted incentive schemes to reward fuels on a GHG reduction basis. This is setting up biomethane with low or negative carbon intensity (CI) as a fuel of choice for suppliers obligated to comply with the regulation in the Netherlands, where previously it lagged behind cheaper, energy-intense biofuels. Another EU regulation that favours biomethane use is FuelEU Maritime, which came into effect in January 2025 requiring shipowners to reduce fleet emissions by 2 pc/yr in 2025 and 2026. Over-compliance can be sold under pooling schemes — which have proven profitable for bio-LNG bunkering. The mandate became a major market price driver for renewable gas guarantees of origin (RGGOs) — certificates issued to companies producing gas made from non-fossil fuel sources — and this should continue into 2026. New schemes, either under RED III or domestic obligations, that will come into effect in 2026 will compete with maritime demand for supply. Most 2026 Dutch and Danish supply has already been sold to the maritime sector. Growing Netherlands As well as a pivot to GHG-based compliance with a new ERE ticket system under RED III, the Netherlands began work on a Green Gas Blending Obligation in November. While implementation before late 2027 seems unlikely, progress should boost RGGO forward pricing. Dutch biomethane liquidity could be bolstered if the government approves mass-balancing , a method to track and verify biomethane when it is injected into the gas grid system and becomes indistinguishable from conventional gas. A motion was proposed in parliament in November, but a recent government response indicates this is unlikely. Bio-LNG must be unsubsidised, certified and physically delivered to qualify for ERE tickets, otherwise it will be treated with a fossil gas CI of 94g CO2e/MJ when calculating a fuel supplier's overall mandate level. Steady Germany, France Germany will remove double-counting for waste-based biofuels under its GHG reduction quota (THG) in 2026, but biomethane should remain the cheapest compliance route for fuel suppliers, as rising mandates will support demand. Most German imports come from the UK or Denmark. The former may benefit from Danish prices inflated by maritime demand, despite questions about UK eligibility with German schemes. France's biogas production certificate (CPB) blending mandate starts in January, which should significantly boost domestic demand. But the country has delayed its RED III transposition , which includes a new GHG-based IRICC ticket system, to 2027. The current energy-based TIRUERT transport ticket system will remain in place for a year, limiting transport-sector uptake. It is unclear if IRICCs can be generated from biomethane in 2027, but 3pc renewable gas obligations for transport will start in 2028, increasing thereafter. Cross-border trade and bio-LNG bunkering should remain limited. French biomethane can only be exported as an ex-domain cancellation , the cancellation of RGGOs in one country's registry for use in a different country. This carries risk to buyers, as ownership is not necessarily transferred. Subsidised biomethane cannot be liquefied at French LNG terminals for use outside the country. French bio-LNG must be exported via mass-balancing to other terminals in the EU, for use under FuelEU Maritime. Uncertain UK The UK's access to EU markets hinges on access to the Union Database for gaseous Biofuels (UDB), now targeted for launch by end-summer 2026. Uncertainty about third-country treatment could restrict EU trade — a critical issue given the UK exported more than half its RGGOs in the first three quarters of 2025, mostly to Germany, Norway and Switzerland. The UK is consulting on replacing volume-based RTFC tickets with a GHG-based system, but any changes would not be enacted until 2027. Overall in Europe, biomethane remains well positioned in GHG-based systems, but policy implementation delays will probably slow overall market growth. The Netherlands, Denmark and Germany should remain anchors for European pricing, and Spain should consolidate its role as a maritime hub. But several countries risk lagging behind without RGGO registries, export hub access, policy incentives and subsidy reform. By Madeleine Jenkins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Argentina wheat yields rise, low protein confirmed

25/12/19

Argentina wheat yields rise, low protein confirmed

Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Argentina's record-breaking wheat yields this year are pushing estimates for the production even higher, though lower-than-normal protein levels have also been confirmed. The Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (SAGyP) raised its estimate for wheat production for the 2025-26 marketing year to 26.8mn metric tonnes (t) from its November forecast of 24.7mn t. The previous record was 22.15mn t, set in 2021-22, according to SAGyP. The increased production expectations came despite SAGyP trimming its estimate for area planted to 6.8mn hectares (ha) (68,000km²) from 6.9mn ha in November. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bage) also raised its estimate this week to 27.1mn t from the 25.5mn t it forecast at the end of November. Bage's estimate for the previous record is 22.4mn t, also set in 2021-22. SAGyP and Bage's revisions follow a similar action by the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) last week, who raised its estimate for the 2025-26 wheat crop to 27.7mn t from its November forecast of 24.5mn t. While these groups usually provide different figures for Argentina's production, a unanimous increase of the three projections all but ensures Aregntina's record wheat crop this year. Reports this week also confirmed expectations of low protein levels for the record crop. Laboratories associated with BCR and the Bahia Blanca Grain and Products Exchange (BCP) both reported average protein levels below 10pc in wheat harvested in their regions. The average protein level across 28 years of data in the BCP's region was 11pc. Corn, soybeans supported by rains The steady rains that boosted wheat yields have also provided good soil moisture levels for Argentina's corn and soybean crops. Corn planting advanced by more than 10 points in the week through 17 December to nearly 70pc complete, Bage said. Soil moisture levels were adequate to optimal in 93pc of the area planted, and 88pc of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition. Rains last week in Argentina's so-called core agricultural region replenished soil moisture in many areas, though corn planted in parts of Santa Fe province need more rain to develop well, BCR said. SAGyP raised its estimate of the area planted with corn to 10.5mn ha from the 10.3mn ha in November. Soybean planting also advanced in the week through 17 December by 8.7 percentage points to more than 67pc finished, Bage said. Soil moisture levels were adequate to optimal for nearly 93pc of the area planted and 93pc of the crop was in good to excellent condition. Barley acres trimmed Argentina's barley harvest continued in the week, surpassing 40pc complete, SAGyP said. SAGyP trimmed its estimate of the area planted to 1.4mn ha from the 1.45mn ha in November and as a result cut its forecast for production to 5.6mn t from 5.8mn t. By Jeffrey T. Lewis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

France raises barley export estimates, tweaks wheat

25/12/19

France raises barley export estimates, tweaks wheat

Paris, 19 December (Argus) — The outlook for French wheat exports to countries outside of the EU this marketing year fell in the latest report from agricultural and sea products agency FranceAgriMer (FAM), but projections for barley exports to non-EU members rose. Barley exports are projected at 6.1mn t in 2025-26 (July-June) in FAM's December report, up by 2pc on the previous estimate but still the second-smallest amount since 2020-21. The projection includes 3.4mn t for non-EU markets, reflecting a 150,000t rise since FAM's estimates last month. FAM projects France's wheat exports (excluding durum) for the 2025-26 marketing year at 15.1mn t, broadly in line with its estimate last month but reflecting a shift of 250,000t of wheat from non-EU destinations to exports within the bloc. This puts exports to the non-EU market at 7.6mn t, more than double the previous year but still failing to recover to exports of just over 10mn t in 2022-23 and 2023-24. Rebound in winter-planted areas for 2026 crop French producers have had relatively favourable conditions for winter crop planting, with wheat, barley and rapeseed areas all set to rise on the year ahead of the 2026 harvest, according to the agriculture ministry. The ministry in its December report made the following projections of areas for the 2026 crop: Wheat (excluding durum) at 4.56mn hectares (ha), up by 2pc on the year but just below the average for the crops in 2021-25 Durum wheat at 199,000 ha, up by 1pc on the year but 15pc below the past five-year average Barley at 1.23mn ha, up by 3pc on the year but 2pc below the five-year average Rapeseed at 1.33mn ha, up by over 6pc on the year and by more than 9pc on the five-year average French producers had almost finished wheat planting as of 1 December, ahead of schedule, with crop development further along and conditions better than at the same point last year. Barley planting was slightly behind but planting conditions were better, compared with the previous year's crop. Higher yields than expected for 2025 corn France's 2025 corn harvest at 13.6mn t is down by 8pc on the year but broadly in line with the average in 2020-24. This restores a more positive outlook the crop after the ministry last month cut its estimate , citing the effects of hot and dry summer weather on yields. By Claudia Jackson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

La Nina may cut Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn

25/12/19

La Nina may cut Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn

Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn crop may face slight losses following the La Nina climate phenomenon, which delayed soybean planting. Farmers plant soybeans and winter corn in the same area, so delays in the oilseed planting could push back grain sowing. Areas sown outside the official planting window for the 2025-26 corn crop are subject to adverse weather conditions and risk reaching their reproductive stages of grain filling and flowering, which are more sensitive to water stress, at the height of winter in Brazil, when the weather is dry. The deadline for concluding soybean sowing in the center-west — which encompasses Goias, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso do Sul states — was 10-25 October for winter corn to be sown and developed with low climatic risk. The closing period for a winter corn crop with medium climatic risk was 21 October-5 November, according to market participants. Irregular weather at the start of the 2025-26 soybean planting caused a delay in some regions. Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states finalized sowing in the weeks ended 5 December and 13 December, respectively. Planting in Goias state reached 97pc completion by 13 December. If corn planting is significantly delayed, farmers may also reduce the technology for planting. Planting outside the ideal window can harm productivity and, hence, the profitability of the crop. Prices of inputs needed for grain cultivation are higher this season, which can demotivate farmers to invest amid uncertain output. Production costs for Mato Grosso's 2025-26 winter corn crop rose from the previous one, with fertilizer costs estimated at R1,418/hectare ($256.50/ha) from R1,342/ha a year prior, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. But current estimates have yet to reflect this scenario. National supply company Conab kept its third estimates, released in December, mostly stable from the first outlook for the season published in October. Brazil is expected to produce 110.5mn metric tonnes (t) of corn in the second crop, 2.4pc less than the previous cycle's 113.2mn t. The drop reflects the expected 6pc decrease in yields to 6,105 kg/ha from 6,496 kg/ha. This may come despite the nearly 4pc increase in planted area to 18.1mn ha (181,000km²). Corn prices are expected to remain stable in the coming months, according to Investment bank Itau BBA forecasts. The 2024-25 corn season — considering the first, second and third crops — increased by nearly 21pc, or 24.2mn t, but high domestic demand helped sustain prices. Total 2025-26 corn output may drop by 1.5pc, or 2.2mn t, but it is expected that prices may be firm due to the competition between domestic and export markets. La Nina effects La Nina provoked irregular rainfall in October-November and consequently delayed the 2025-26 soybean planting window. The La Nina phenomenon is an abnormal cooling of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. The consequence of this phenomenon in Brazil is a delay in the start of regular rainfall, reducing volumes in the south and increasing humidity in the north and northeast. Although classified as low intensity and short duration, with a peak between November-December, this year's La Nina has been altering rainfall patterns in Brazil and is expected to last until early 2026. The trend is that the country will resume its usual climate patterns as of February. 2025-26 soy crop should maintain record But Brazil is still on track to produce a record amount of oilseed despite delays to the 2025-26 soybean planting. Although irregular rainfall at the beginning of the season delayed planting in major producing states, the return of regular rainfall should compensate losses caused by a possible drought in southern Rio Grande do Sul state. Even with Conab's third estimate still forecasting a record harvest of 177.1mn t, 3.3pc above the the 2024-25 cycle, the forecast is lower than the 177.6mn t in Conab's first projection. The drop is a result of lower estimates for nationally planted area, which fell to 48.9mn ha in the third estimate from 49.1mn ha in the first. By Sofia Zizza Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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