Brazil oil sector sees opportunity in US tariffs

: Crude oil, Natural gas
25/03/06

Planned US tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada could represent an opportunity for the Brazilian oil and natural gas sector, oil chamber IBP said.

"These trade disputes, this increase in protectionism, could conversely create opportunities for us to reach new markets," IBP president Roberto Ardenghy told Argus.

The tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump earlier this week on US imports from Mexico and Canada subject Canadian crude to a 10pc duty, while the blanket levy of 25pc would apply to Mexican petroleum.

The tariffs' implementation now looks set to be delayed until next month. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, in a televised interview Thursday, said that all US imports from Canada and Mexico that are covered by the USMCA duty-free treatment will be exempt from tariffs until 2 April. Trump then confirmed this on social media in the case of Mexican products.

The risk of tariffs and trade disputes is "part of the international day-to-day … of the commodities sector" and could open new markets for Brazil as it ramps up production, Ardenghy said.

The US imported 6.49mn b/d of crude in 2023, with Canada accounting for around 60pc and Mexico for 11pc, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Brazilian crude accounted for just under 3pc, but it is Brazil's main export to the US.

"We can imagine that if there is a significant decline in Canadian oil exports to the US, for cost reasons, then Brazil will have an opportunity to access the US market that it did not have in the past," Ardenghy said. The Brazilian oil sector is also eyeing openings in other markets such as Mexico, he said.

Brazilian oil from the high-yield offshore pre-salt fields is low-sulfur and low-carbon, with average CO2 emissions of 11 kg/bl, making it more competitive in mature markets, including US states with more stringent carbon-content rules such as California and Colorado, Ardenghy said. The country's medium sweet grade is also an advantage, as it is adaptable to many refineries, he said.

Crude overtook soybeans as Brazil's main export product for the first time ever in 2024, with exports totaling $44.9bn, according to government data. China accounted for 44pc of the total, at $20bn, while the US accounted for $5.8bn, or 13pc, of last year's oil exports.

By Constance Malleret

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25/12/19

Trinidad not part of US blockade of Venezuela: PM

Kingston, 19 December (Argus) — Trinidad and Tobago is not involved in the US blockade of oil tankers entering and leaving from neighboring Venezuela, prime minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said on Thursday. She rejected a Venezuelan government claim that her country is part of US president Donald Trump's current campaign against Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, and that it is supporting "the theft of Venezuelan oil." "We have no intention of engaging in any war with Venezuela," Persad-Bissessar said. But Trinidad's foreign ministry said on 15 December that the US is using the country's two airports for "logistical activities," including resupply for US operations and personnel rotations. Venezuelan vice-president Delcy Rodriguez accused Persad-Bissessar of being "hostile" to Venezuela, saying she "has turned her country into a US aircraft carrier to attack Venezuela, in an unequivocal act of vassalage." The US has stationed a large naval force in the waters near Venezuela since September and has destroyed several small boats in the area it said were carrying drugs, killing more than 80 people. Trump said in November he would order land strikes against Venezuela soon, and the US seized a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude earlier this month. Trinidad's rejection of the Venezuelan claims follow a standoff between the hydrocarbon producers over agreements to develop an offshore natural gas field in Venezuelan waters close to their maritime border that has an estimated 4.3 Tcf in reserves. Trinidad described a Venezuelan decision to terminate all natural gas supply contracts with it as "propaganda". The southwestern tip of gas-short Trinidad is 11 miles from Venezuela's north coast, and the country has been seeking gas from Venezuelan offshore fields to support up declining domestic output. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

25/12/19

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

W Australia's gas surplus outlook strengthens: Aemo

25/12/19

W Australia's gas surplus outlook strengthens: Aemo

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — The Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) is forecasting a bigger gas supply surplus in Western Australia (WA) for most of 2026-30, according to its 2025 WA Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) report released today. Aemo now projects that both gas supply and demand will be lower than previously expected in the period, because of cutbacks at major industrial users and downward revisions to its production forecasts. But its demand revisions were larger than its supply revisions, increasing its projected surplus. The state's gas supply will exceed demand over most of that period, except in 2028 and 2030 (see table) . It has increased its projections for the size of the surplus compared with those in its 2024 WA GSOO report. Supply side Aemo cut its WA gas supply forecast because of delays, gas reserve depletions, and decreased expected production at the Gorgon, Scarborough, and Pluto projects, it said. The market operator previously expected Australia producer Strike Energy to open its 87 TJ/d (2.3mn m³/d) West Erregulla project in 2026. But Strike only aims to make a final investment decision on the project in July-December 2026 , later than originally anticipated . Strike's West Erregulla delay lowered WA's expected gas production by 52 TJ/d in 2027 and 63 TJ/d in 2028, Aemo said. Aemo has also cut its production expectations for the Scarborough and Pluto gas fields by up to 24 TJ/d in 2030, it said. Australian developer Woodside Energy aims to process 7mn t/yr of Scarborough gas and 3mn t/yr of Pluto gas from early 2027, it said in November. Workers building a 5mn t/yr LNG train at the Pluto LNG terminal plan to launch a strike on 6 January. Their current enterprise bargaining agreement with Australian engineering firm Bechtel will expire on 19 December, Argus understands. Planned maintenance and lower utilisation at the Gorgon project contributed to a 16 TJ/d cut to Aemo's forecasts, it said. The project's owners — which include Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Osaka Gas, Tokyo Gas and Jera — will modify its three-train Gordon LNG terminal as part of a A$3bn ($1.98bn) project, it said in December. Reserve downgrades and depletions at the Walyering, Beharra Springs, Macedon, and Varanus Island fields mostly account for the rest of the supply revisions, Aemo said. The Walyering and Beharra Springs field reserve downgrades cut Aemo's WA supply forecast by 5 TJ/d in 2026 and 23 TJ/d in 2029, it added. Demand side The closure of nickel mining and alumina refining operations cut Aemo's 2026-30 demand forecast, the operator said. But demand will still rise over that period, from 1,085 TJ/d in 2026 to 1,295 TJ/d, because of new mining and processing activity, it said. US producer Alcoa opted to permanently close its 2.2mn t/yr Kwinana alumina refinery on 30 September , after it paused the site in July 2024. It has not announced a full closure timeline yet, Alcoa Australia president Elsabe Muller told Argus at the time. Australian miner IGO has also paused its Forrestania and Cosmos nickel projects over recent years. Multiple developers including Australian producers Iluka Resources , Cobalt Blue , and RZ Resources will develop critical mineral mining or processing projects in WA over the coming years. By Avinash Govind WA projected gas surplus TJ/d Year Surplus (2024 WA GSOO) Surplus (2025 WA GSOO) 2026 4 54 2027 5 20 2028 -12 -89 2029 5 132 2030 -2 -11 *GSOO refers to Gas Statement of Opportunities Source: Australian Energy Market Operator Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Energy Transfer halts plans for Lake Charles LNG

25/12/18

Energy Transfer halts plans for Lake Charles LNG

Houston, 18 December (Argus) — US midstream firm Energy Transfer is suspending development of its planned 16.5mn t/yr (2.2 Bcf/d) Lake Charles LNG export terminal in Louisiana to focus on natural gas pipeline expansions, the company said today. The pivot allows the company to reallocate capital to gas pipeline projects that provide "superior risk/return profiles", Energy Transfer said. The company separately said it will increase the capacity of its planned Desert Southwest expansion of the Transwestern pipeline, allowing it to move more gas from west Texas' Permian basin to the southwestern US. The decision to scrap Lake Charles LNG follows a month of dissonance from company executives about moving forward with the facility. Energy Transfer co-chief executive Mackie McCrea told investors in early November that the company would not be able to reach a final investment decision (FID) until it sold off 80pc of equity shares in the project. But Amy Chen Davis, vice president of Lake Charles LNG, told an industry event on 10 December that the company was in talks with potential partners and would reach a final decision in early 2026. The company said earlier this year it planned an FID by the end of 2025. The midstream firm has sought for years to convert the existing Lake Charles import facility into an export terminal. Shell signed on with a 50pc stake in 2019 but pulled out the following year as part of cost-cutting measures during the Covid-19 pandemic. McCrea had signaled to investors that the company was being cautious with entering the LNG export industry. "When you're chasing billions of dollars in projects, several of which we've already announced, we've got to be careful stepping out on something like this," McCrea said on 5 November. "We're not an LNG company like we compete with. We're a pipeline company that has a regas facility converting part of it to LNG." Investor MidOcean Energy had signed a preliminary agreement to fund 30pc of Lake Charles LNG's construction costs in exchange for 30pc of offtake, but the firms never finalized the deal. Suspension of the project also may set back the efforts of Saudi Aramco, which holds a 49pc stake in MidOcean, to develop an LNG portfolio. MidOcean has a share in Peru's 4.45mn t/yr Pampa Melchorita LNG export plant and the Shell-led 14mn t/yr LNG Canada export terminal in British Columbia. Pipeline project in focus Meanwhile, Energy Transfer said it will upsize capacity on the Desert Southwest expansion. The company said it will increase the expansion's capacity by 800mn cf/d to 2.3 Bcf/d to satisfy additional demand in the southwestern US. Energy Transfer reached an FID on Desert Southwest in August. The expansion is one of several projects working to increase gas transportation capacity out of the Permian, where a steady increase in crude-driven activity — and commensurate rise in associated gas output — has outpaced the increase in gas takeaway capacity. This has created a local gas supply glut and some of the lowest gas prices in the US. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

25/12/18

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

Washington, 18 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives on Thursday approved a bill designed to fast-track permitting for energy projects and reduce related litigation risks. But a last-minute change Republicans made to exclude some offshore wind and solar projects led some Democrats and a major clean energy group to withdraw support, complicating the bill's chances of passage in the Senate. The Republican-controlled House voted 221-196 to pass the SPEED Act, with 11 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote for what would be the most significant changes to federal permitting in years. The bill will now advance to the US Senate, where proponents will likely need to agree to make significant changes if they hope to pick up the votes of at least seven Democrats to avoid a filibuster. The bill "finally brings common sense by cutting red tape that dramatically increases the cost and, in some cases, just makes it economically unfeasible to do projects", House Republican majority leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said. The SPEED Act focuses on revising project reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which is a source of delay and litigation risk for pipelines and renewable projects alike. The bill would require federal agencies to narrow those reviews and uphold those decisions even if federal courts find them to be inadequate. The bill would also provide permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals, averting a repeat of events like the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. "We applaud the House for advancing the SPEED Act, a bipartisan, commonsense step toward fixing a federal permitting system that's long been broken," oil industry group the American Petroleum Institute said. Republican leaders were hoping 30-40 Democrats would join them to support the SPEED Act. The bill had broad bipartisan support when it was drafted because of provisions meant to prevent permitting delays that have plagued both oil and gas pipelines and renewable energy development. But Republican leaders, to satisfy far-right conservatives, made a change to the bill earlier this week that would prevent its expedited permitting procedures from benefiting any project that Trump's administration has blocked or revisited since 20 January. The Trump administration has targeted multiple offshore wind and solar projects this year and has ordered the developer of the nearly complete 704MW Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island to stop construction. That change fractured a bipartisan coalition that had spent months working on technology-neutral permitting language. The American Clean Power Association, the largest industry group for US renewable energy, on Wednesday withdrew its support of the bill , arguing the "poison pill amendment" that Republicans made eviscerated bipartisan language that gave expedited permitting treatment for all types of energy resources. A number of House Democrats who had backed the bill also withdrew their support. American Clean Power plans to work with both parties in the Senate to make changes. "This is not the final draft," representative Scott Peters (D-California) said during floor debate Thursday, vowing to work with his colleagues in the Senate to address House Democrats' concerns. By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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