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US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

  • : Agriculture, Metals, Natural gas
  • 25/03/19

Adds Powell comments, economic projections.

Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year.

The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed rate cuts of 100 basis points over the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020.

"Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we are looking at," Fed chair Jerome Powell told journalists after the meeting. "The economy seems to be healthy."

Powell acknowledged some of the negative market sentiment in recent weeks, which he said "... probably has to do with turmoil at the beginning of an administration."

"We kind of know there are going to be tariffs and they tend to bring growth down and they tend to bring inflation up," he said, but long-term inflation expectations are "well anchored."

In December the Fed said it expected 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents.

Policymakers and Fed officials Wednesday lowered their estimate for GDP growth this year to 1.7pc from a prior estimate of 2.1pc in the December economic projections. They see inflation rising to 2.7pc for 2025 from the prior estimate of 2.5pc.


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US economy contracts in 1Q on pre-tariff stocking


25/04/30
25/04/30

US economy contracts in 1Q on pre-tariff stocking

Houston, 30 April (Argus) — The US economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time in three years, on less government spending and a surge in imports as companies stocked up on inventories before tariffs take effect. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at an annual 0.3pc pace following growth of 2.4pc in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said today. GDP last fell by 1pc in the first quarter of 2022. Economists surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast 0.3pc GDP growth for the first quarter. Businesses stocked up on imports to get ahead of tariffs that President Donald Trump has wielded to restructure the global trading system. A monthly employment report in two days may show the impacts of Trump's mass federal firings, while Federal Reserve policymakers will meet next week to consider the effects of Trump's policies on prices. Imports, which detract from GDP growth, expanded by 41.3pc after falling by 1.9pc in the fourth quarter. Exports grew by 1.8pc after declining by 0.2pc. Consumer spending rose by an annual 1.8pc in the first quarter following 4pc growth in the fourth quarter. Domestic investment, which includes inventory builds, rose by an annual 21.9pc following a decline of 5.6pc in the prior quarter. Spending on equipment rose by 22.5pc following an 8.7pc decline in the fourth quarter. Government spending fell by 1.4pc after growth of 3.1pc. Federal spending fell by 5.1pc after growth of 4pc. Defense spending was down by an annual 8pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CME launches Black Sea CVB Wheat Argus futures


25/04/30
25/04/30

CME launches Black Sea CVB Wheat Argus futures

Paris, 30 April (Argus) — Traders will be able to trade Black Sea wheat futures and options on the CBOT exchange from 2 June, CME Group said, via new contracts that are financially settled on the Argus 12.5pc protein wheat fob CVB price. The final settlement price will be equal to the arithmetic average of the "12.5pc Romania-Bulgaria fob CVB" under the heading "Wheat $/t" as published by Argus in the AgriMarkets report for each day that it is determined from and including the first calendar day of the contract month to and including the 15th calendar day of the contract month. The settlement is in US dollars per tonne. A total of seven monthly contracts will at all times be available for the following contract months — March, May, July, September and December. Trading terminates on the 15th calendar day of the contract month. Daily settlement will take place on each contract business day at 18:30 CET (17:30 GMT). The contracts are cleared through CME Clearing. The CBOT exchange suspended trading and clearing of all Black Sea futures and options in August 2023. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Sojitz to enter biomethane production in India


25/04/30
25/04/30

Japan’s Sojitz to enter biomethane production in India

Tokyo, 30 April (Argus) — Japanese trader Sojitz has decided to fund Indian biomethane producer IOC GPS Renewables (IGRPL), in efforts to enter biomethane production and sales in India. IGRPL's biomethane project requires over $400mn, Sojitz announced on 30 April, but Sojitz declined to disclose the funding amount. IGRPL is a company jointly launched by Indian biomethane plant constructor GPS Renewables and India's state-controlled refiner Indian Oil. Sojitz will conduct the funding in line with these two companies by the end of May, Sojitz told Argus . IGRPL plans to begin operating 30 biomethane plants in India during the 2026-27 fiscal year to 2027-28, targeting 160,000 t/yr of biomethane production. The company first produces biogas, a mixture of methane and CO2, by processing agricultural wastes using bacteria. It then purifies the biogas to be used as biomethane. IGRPL's biomethane plants will mainly use paddy straws as feedstock, which are usually burned in the country after harvesting rice. The produced biomethane is expected to be supplied to domestic gas firms, and those companies will use the biomethane for blending with conventional city gas. This will help to cut greenhouse gas emissions compared with using only conventional gas derived from fossil fuels, Sojitz said. Sojitz does not plan to export this project's biomethane to Japan for now, the company explained to Argus , but will later consider expanding the biomethane business to other regions by utilising GPS Renewables' technologies. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway's Equinor sees minor fall in 1Q output, profit


25/04/30
25/04/30

Norway's Equinor sees minor fall in 1Q output, profit

London, 30 April (Argus) — Norwegian state-controlled Equinor posted a profit of $2.63bn in the first quarter — a decline of 2pc on the year — as production dropped slightly and it reported lower liquids prices. Although its profit fell compared with a "strong" first quarter of 2024, it was an increase of nearly a one third from the fourth quarter of 2024. Equinor's production was 2.12mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in the January-March period, lower on the year by 2pc. "The production decrease was similar for both gas and liquids," the company said. It cited "strong" operational performance for most of its Norwegian fields, which it said "almost offsets the negative production impact from the shut-in at Sleipner B… and planned and unplanned maintenance at Hammerfest LNG." The Sleipner B platform was shut down in October after a fire . Equinor's US production rose on the year, while its output from international assets fell over the same timeframe owing to its exits from Nigeria and Azerbaijan in 2024. Equinor reported an average liquids price of $70.6/bl in the January-March quarter, down by 7pc on the year. Its realised piped gas prices rose considerably over the same time, to $14.80/mn Btu for Europe and $4.06/mn Btu for the US — increases of 57pc and 74pc, respectively. The company's total first-quarter power generation increased by 9pc on the year, to 1.4TWh, driven by "stronger clean spark spreads in gas to power generation and onshore assets in Brazil." But the renewables share of this slid by 2pc over the same period, to 760,000GWh because of "unfavourable wind conditions." Equinor is considering its legal options with regards to its US Empire Wind project, chief executive Anders Opedal said today. The US government in April ordered work to stop on the planned 810MW wind farm, offshore New York. "We have invested in Empire Wind after obtaining all necessary approvals, and the order to halt work now is unprecedented and in our view unlawful," Odepal said. "This is a question of the rights and obligations granted under legally issued permits, and security of investments based on valid approvals." The company reported a marginal decline in its upstream CO2 intensity in the first quarter 6.1kg CO2/bl, compared with 6.2kg CO2/bl for full-year 2024. There was a similar drop in absolute scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions — at 2.7mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) for the first quarter, compared with 2.9mn t/CO2e a year earlier. Equinor confirmed a cash dividend of $0.37/share for the first quarter and plans to launch a second tranche of its share buyback programme of up to $1.265bn, subject to authorisation at its annual general meeting in May. The first tranche of this year's buyback programme was completed on 24 March with a total value of $1.2bn. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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