Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial for coup attempt

: Agriculture, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Natural gas
25/03/26

Brazil's former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro will face trial on charges of an attempted coup following his 2022 electoral defeat, the supreme court (STF) ruled today.

In February Brazil's prosecutor-general charged Bolsonaro and seven other people — which include some of his former ministers — of plotting to guarantee that the former president stayed in power despite losing the election to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital of Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents, the prosecutor-general said.

STF's five-judge panel voted unanimously to put Bolsonaro on trial, with top judge Alexandre de Moraes saying that the 8 January insurrection was a result of "systematic efforts" by Bolsonaro and his aides to discredit the election he lost.

If convicted, Bolsonaro could face up to 40 years in jail. He is charged with five crimes, including leading an armed criminal organization, attempted coup and threatening to harm "the Union's assets."

Although it is not clear when court proceedings will begin, they are expected this year, which is unusually fast for Brazil's justice system.

"They are in a hurry, big hurry," Bolsonaro said of the legal proceedings on social media platform X, adding that the case is moving "10 times faster" than Lula's proceeding when he was on trial for the anti-corruption Car Wash investigation. Lula was eventually found guilty of money laundering and corruption and jailed in April 2018, but was later acquitted and freed in November 2019.

Bolsonaro also added that the trial is politically motivated. "The court is trying to prevent me from being tried in 2026, because they want to stop me from running in the elections," he added.

Brazil will hold presidential elections in October 2026. The electoral court voted in June 2023 to make Bolsonaro ineligible to run for any public office until 2030. But he is still seen as a major political force in the country. It is unclear who will serve as Bolsonaro's successor for more conservative voters, although Sao Paulo state's governor Tarcisio de Freitas has emerged as the most likely candidate.

Bolsonaro — who sat in the president's seat from 2019-2022 — also faces several other legal challenges to his conduct as president, including allegations of money laundering, criminal association and embezzlement for allegedly receiving jewelry as gifts from Saudi Arabia related to the sale of state-controlled Petrobras' 330,000 b/d Landulpho Alves refinery in northeastern Bahia state to the UAE's Mubadala Capital. But none of these allegations have moved forward in the judiciary.

During his administration, Bolsonaro privatized several state-owned energy assets and put little priority on environmental protections, policies that Lula has since reversed.

By Lucas Parolin

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25/04/28

Canadians go to polls in general election

Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Voting in Canada is underway today with the governing Liberal party looking to complete a comeback in polling against the Conservative party to clinch its fourth-straight term. There are 343 seats up for grabs in Canada's Parliament and polls throughout the five-week campaign indicate the Liberals have a reasonable chance to win a majority, which would allow them to implement policies without needing the support of other parties. Latest polling figures show the Liberals at 43pc, the Conservatives at 39pc, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 8pc, the Bloq Quebecois at 6pc, and the Green Party at 2pc, according to poll aggregator Canada338 on Monday. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. The key issues for Canadians this election cycle are inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by US president Donald Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Liberal leader Mark Carney's campaign has centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . A fresh face for the Liberals and a foe to rally against in Trump has lifted the fortunes of the party, which some critics speculated only months ago could lose most of its seats. As recent as January, the Liberals were facing a 26-point deficit in polls, but the party mounted a comeback at the expense of both the Conservatives and the left-leaning NDP. The Conservatives would likely have to overtake the Liberals by several percentage points to win enough seats to form a government, based on the past two elections in 2019 and 2021. More Canadians voted for Conservatives than any other party in those races, but the Liberals came away with the most seats, owing to their success in winning tight races. The last polls close on Canada's west coast at 10pm ET with preliminary results expected shortly after. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Little impact on Iran urea exports from port explosion

25/04/28

Little impact on Iran urea exports from port explosion

London, 28 April (Argus) — Iran's urea exports are likely to be little affected by the explosion at Iran's Bandar Abbas port on 26 April, with impacts limited to cargoes in container. Most of Iran's urea exports are in bulk, so the impact to exports should be a curtailment of 50,000-150,000t in May. Loading and discharging activities of bulk cargoes have resumed today at Bandar Abbas. It is not clear how long it will take for full operations at the port to resume, but some local market participants expect this by the end of May. Producers Shiraz and Khorasan are the main exporters from Bandar Abbas port, while Lordegan, Kermanshah, MIS and Razi mainly export from Bandar Imam Khomeini. Pardis exports urea mainly from Assaluye. Both Bandar Iman Khomeini and Assaluye ports are currently operating normally. The explosion , which occurred in the sulphur storage area of the port, has led to force majeure being declared on exports from the port. By Dana Hjeij Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Oil services spell out initial cost of Trump’s tariffs

25/04/28

Oil services spell out initial cost of Trump’s tariffs

New York, 28 April (Argus) — The world's top oil field service firms are starting to count the cost of US president Donald Trump's unprecedented trade wars, amid a challenging outlook caused by tariff-related volatility that has sent oil prices lower and sparked fears of a recession. Halliburton forecasts a 2-3¢/share hit to second-quarter results, with its completion and production unit — which includes the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) business — accounting for 60pc of the expected fallout, and drilling and evaluation making up the rest. Baker Hughes says full-year profit could be reduced by $100mn-200mn, assuming that the tariff levels in effect under Trump's 90-day pause remain in place for the rest of the year. While SLB, the world's biggest oil field contractor, says it is to early to fully assess the potential impact of tariffs, the company is taking proactive steps to shore up its supply chain and manufacturing network, as well as pursuing exemptions and engaging with customers to recover related cost increases. Crude prices slumped to a four-year low earlier this month after Trump's tariffs threw global markets into a tailspin. The oil field service industry argues that it is better prepared for a downturn this time around, given a focus on capital discipline and returns in recent years. Yet the double blow of tariffs and an accelerated return of Opec+ barrels to the market could cause further headaches — even as firms move to mitigate the impact. "We need a bit more clarity and stability in the structure of tariffs so that we can really understand what levers we can pull and then what the overall outcome is going to be," Halliburton's chief financial officer, Eric Carre, says. "There's just a lot of moving parts right now." Global upstream spending will be "down by high-single digits" this year, Baker Hughes says. The company forecasts a low-double digit decline in North America spending by its clients, and a mid-to-high single-digit drop internationally. "A sustained move lower in oil prices or worsening tariffs would introduce further downside risk to this outlook," chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli argues. "The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels." While Baker Hughes' "strong weighting" to international markets and a diversified and local supply chain provide a cushion, the company is seeking to limit the tariff impact for its industrial and energy technology division by exploring domestic procurement alternatives and improving its global manufacturing footprint. The Wright stuff Liberty Energy , whose former chief executive Chris Wright was picked by Trump to serve as his energy secretary, expects modest tariff-related inflationary impacts on engines and other electric components, some of which are being offset by lower prices or volume discounts. "All said, we don't anticipate a significant direct impact from tariffs at the moment," chief financial officer Michael Stock says. Shale producers are also starting to figure out how they may be affected, with Diamondback Energy reviewing its operating plan for the rest of the year. "Should low commodity prices persist or worsen, Diamondback has the flexibility to reduce activity to maximise free cash flow generation," the company says. And Devon Energy aims to boost annual pre-tax free cash flow by $1bn, partly by doubling down on efficiency savings — a strategy that has gained momentum from the recent tariff turmoil. "Given the challenging market and shifting competitive landscape, this is the right moment to focus internally and improve our profitability," chief executive Clay Gaspar says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump works to blunt renewables growth

25/04/28

Trump works to blunt renewables growth

Washington, 28 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump has started to impede development of renewable energy projects he sees as boondoggles, but he is facing challenges to his attempts to halt government funding and tax credits for the sector. Trump has attacked wind turbines and solar projects as part of a "Green New Scam" that should not be built, based on his preference for the fossil fuel-fired and nuclear power plants he says are more reliable and affordable. Trump selected a cabinet of like-minded individuals who oppose renewables and see little urgency to address climate change. He was elected to end the "nonsense" of building renewable resources that are heavily subsidised, make the grid less reliable and raise costs, energy secretary Chris Wright said in an interview on Earth Day. Interior secretary Doug Burgum on 16 April ordered Norwegian state-controlled Equinor to "immediately halt" construction of the 810MW Empire Wind project off New York. Trump had already ordered a freeze on future offshore wind leases , and suspending Empire Wind's permits is likely to spook investors even outside the renewables sphere. To reverse course on a fully permitted project is "bad policy" that "sends a chilling signal to all energy investment", American Clean Power Association chief executive Jason Grumet says. The US last week separately said it would impose anti-dumping duties on solar components imported from four southeast Asian countries that will range from 15pc to 3,400pc. Those duties — in effect from June to support US solar manufacturers — will be in addition to a 10pc across-the-board tariff the US imposed this month on most imports. Solar industry groups have said that steep import duties will make new installations unaffordable, stunting the industry's ability to grow. Trump has had less success in his push to axe support for renewables approved under Joe Biden. On 15 April, a federal judge ordered the administration to unfreeze billions of dollars for clean energy projects provided by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and 2021 infrastructure law. The administration lacks "unfettered power to hamstring in perpetuity two statutes", judge Mary McElroy wrote. In a separate ruling on 15 April, judge Tanya Chutkan prohibited the administration from suspending $14bn in grants distributed to nonprofits under the IRA for a greenhouse gas reduction programme. The administration is appealing both rulings. Targeting the windfall Trump could further undermine the growth of renewables by convincing Republicans in Congress to use an upcoming filibuster-proof budget package to repeal or narrow the IRA's tax credits for wind, solar and other clean energy projects. Critics of that law see the potential for $1 trillion in savings by repealing its tax credits, which could offset the costs of more than $5 trillion in planned tax cuts. But there appear to be enough votes in each chamber of Congress to spare at least some of the IRA's energy tax credits. In the Senate, where Republicans can only afford to lose three votes, Alaska's Lisa Murkowski and three other Republicans signed a joint letter this month saying "wholesale repeal" of the tax credits would fuel uncertainty and undermine job creation. In the House of Representatives, where Republicans have a similarly slim majority, 21 Republicans voiced concerns earlier this year about repealing all of the tax credits. Renewables are on track to overtake natural gas as the largest source of US electricity by 2030 — assuming the tax credits and climate rules enacted under Biden remain intact — the EIA stated this month in its Annual Energy Outlook . The amount of power from renewables under the EIA's existing policy baseline by 2035 will increase by 135pc to 2.8bn MWh, while gas-fired power will decline by 14pc to 1.6bn MWh over the same time period. By Chris Knight Baseline US net power generation Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China's NP/NPS exports hit record high in January-March

25/04/28

China's NP/NPS exports hit record high in January-March

Singapore, 28 April (Argus) — China's NP/NPS exports jumped by more than eightfold to an all-time high of about 614,000t over January-March, latest trade data show, as it is a more affordable alternative to DAP/MAP, given tighter phosphate export availability and higher fertilizer prices globally. This was largely driven by record-high shipments to Brazil and India in the first quarter, both of which did not receive any NP/NPS exports a year earlier. Shipments to Brazil and India reached 315,000t and 94,000t respectively in January-March. China exported more formulas, including NP 8-40-0, to Brazil so far this year as a lower-priced alternative to MAP, given higher fertilizer prices in Brazil. Indian importers are also seeking more NPKs and NPS, such as 20-20-0+13S, because of a lack of DAP fertilizer supply out of China. Such imports into India also allow the importer to maintain a positive margin under the current subsidy and maximum retail price, as compared to importing DAP. China's NPK exports over January-March also nearly tripled from a year earlier to 169,000t, which is also a four-year high, largely driven by an eightfold increase in shipments to the Philippines, its largest importer at about 63,000t. Favourable weather conditions this year led to more local rice production, according to the Philippines' Department of Agriculture, likely contributing to an increase in demand for complex fertilizers. The El Niño phenomenon hit the Philippines in the first quarter of 2024, when prolonged periods of dry spells damaged about 780,000 hectares of crops across 271,000t of agricultural land, which likely affected fertilizer demand and affordability last year. Lower prices of 16-20 from China in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, according to Argus , also likely boosted affordability levels. Some Chinese DAP producers have switched their production line to producing NP/NPS to cater to the growing demand from overseas buyers, alongside the end of the domestic spring season and slowing domestic demand for DAP. The lack of clarity on DAP/MAP exports also supported Chinese phosphate producers in pivoting to more NP/NPS exports . Exports availability of phosphates may reduce shipments of NP/NPS in favour of DAP/MAP. Suppliers are also expecting more demand from Brazil this year, according to market participants, as China is likely to import more soybeans from Brazil in light of recent tariffs imposed on US imports. Firm DAP prices in India are also likely to continue pushing Indian importers to buy more NP/NPS. Importers in India have cancelled at least three sales of DAP above $690/t cfr from Russia and Tunisia. But there was no confirmation of the cancellations from the suppliers. By Camila Tay China NP/NPS exports 2024 (t) Brazil India Australia Vietnam Others Total January 60,600 26,500 38,196 16,219 10,514 152,029 February 129,553 0 12,520 13,993 68,689 224,755 March 124,680 67,900 0 15,481 29,524 237,585 Total 314,833 94,400 50,716 45,693 108,727 614,369 Source: GTT China NPK exports 2024 (t) Philippines Myanmar Laos Australia Others Total January 24,064 8,654 8,977 832 23,449 65,976 February 3,168 12,080 2,628 286 18,916 37,078 March 35,640 10,744 2,009 15,481 2,315 66,189 Total 62,872 31,478 13,614 16,599 44,680 169,243 Source: GTT Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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