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IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast

  • : Crude oil, LPG, Oil products
  • 25/04/15

The IEA has sharply lowered its forecast for refinery run growth this year, citing escalating tensions in global trade.

In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, the energy watchdog said it expects growth in global crude runs of 340,000 b/d, down by 40pc from its previous forecast of 570,000 b/d.

The IEA sees total global crude runs averaging 83.2mn b/d this year.

Increased throughput from non-OECD countries still drives this year's growth, with the IEA expecting an increase of 830,000 b/d to 47.6mn b/d. The IEA has not adjusted this figure, as stronger runs in China through the first quarter of this year and higher Russian forecasts have offset downgrades in other non-OECD countries.

Chinese crude runs in January and February averaged 15.2mn b/d, around 470,000 b/d higher than the IEA's forecast, it said. The body raised its Russian forecasts from the second quarter as Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have slowed.

The IEA forecasts OECD refinery runs will fall by 490,000 b/d this year because of refinery closures, resulting in a cut from its previous forecast of 100,000 b/d, to 35.6mn b/d. OECD Europe runs are forecast to fall by 310,000 b/d on the year to 10.9mn b/d.

OECD crude runs rose by 200,000 b/d on the year in February, 40,000 b/d higher than the IEA expected. Throughput was particularly weak in the first quarter of 2024, when extreme cold cut US run rates.

In Mexico, state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery has still not reached stable operations having started up in mid-2024. The refinery ran no crude in January because of crude quality constraints, the IEA said, and February output there was 7,000 b/d. The IEA estimates the refinery's second crude unit will come online in the fourth quarter.

The IEA said refiners will add more than 1mn b/d of global capacity in 2026, but it forecast growths in crude runs of only 300,000 b/d for that year. Assuming all new and expanded refineries come into operation by then, producers will have to cut runs at older refineries, it said.

Capacity additions will be largest in Asia-Pacific. The IEA expects China's 320,000 b/d Panjin refinery to come online in the second half of 2026, and for producers to add capacity of 480,000 b/d in India.

It sees growth in crude runs as focused on the Mideast Gulf, and runs across the OECD falling.


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25/04/30

US economy contracts in 1Q on pre-tariff stocking

US economy contracts in 1Q on pre-tariff stocking

Houston, 30 April (Argus) — The US economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time in three years, on less government spending and a surge in imports as companies stocked up on inventories before tariffs take effect. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at an annual 0.3pc pace following growth of 2.4pc in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said today. GDP last fell by 1pc in the first quarter of 2022. Economists surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast 0.3pc GDP growth for the first quarter. Businesses stocked up on imports to get ahead of tariffs that President Donald Trump has wielded to restructure the global trading system. A monthly employment report in two days may show the impacts of Trump's mass federal firings, while Federal Reserve policymakers will meet next week to consider the effects of Trump's policies on prices. Imports, which detract from GDP growth, expanded by 41.3pc after falling by 1.9pc in the fourth quarter. Exports grew by 1.8pc after declining by 0.2pc. Consumer spending rose by an annual 1.8pc in the first quarter following 4pc growth in the fourth quarter. Domestic investment, which includes inventory builds, rose by an annual 21.9pc following a decline of 5.6pc in the prior quarter. Spending on equipment rose by 22.5pc following an 8.7pc decline in the fourth quarter. Government spending fell by 1.4pc after growth of 3.1pc. Federal spending fell by 5.1pc after growth of 4pc. Defense spending was down by an annual 8pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Repsol sees Spanish refineries back to normal in a week


25/04/30
25/04/30

Repsol sees Spanish refineries back to normal in a week

Madrid, 30 April (Argus) — Repsol said it expects its five Spanish refineries to return to normal operations within a week following Monday's nationwide power outage. The company confirmed that power was restored to all its refineries on Monday evening, allowing the restart process to begin. It will take three days to restart the crude distillation units and 5-7 days to restart the secondary conversion units, with hydrocrackers taking the longest, according to chief executive Josu Jon Imaz. A momentary and as-yet unexplained drop in power supply on the Spanish electricity grid caused power cuts across most of Spain and Portugal, disrupting petrochemical plants and airports, as well as refineries. Imaz noted that Repsol was fortunate that its refineries avoided damage from petroleum coke formation and other solidification processes during the shutdown. Repsol's 220,000 b/d Petronor refinery in Bilbao was the first to restart, thanks to electricity imports from France, he said. State-controlled petroleum reserves corporation Cores has temporarily reduced Spain's obligation to hold 92 days of oil product consumption as strategic reserves by four days, mitigating potential supply issues from the outage. Imaz declined to speculate on the cause of the power outage. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New Zealand's Auckland airport delays new runway plans


25/04/30
25/04/30

New Zealand's Auckland airport delays new runway plans

Sydney, 30 April (Argus) — New Zealand's Auckland airport, the country's largest, will delay plans for a second runway for at least 10 years because of operational and efficiency measures, it said on 29 April. Its plans to build a second runway by 2028 would be delayed by a decade, but operational innovation could extend that timeline further. The airport's master plan anticipates 38mn passengers/yr will transit through Auckland by 2047, up from 18.6mn in the 2024 fiscal year to 30 June, with air cargo growing by 40pc to 223,000 t/yr by 2047. The airport has yet to reach pre-Covid-19 passenger numbers and its main user, state-controlled carrier Air New Zealand, has reported ongoing problems with aircraft availability , which has slashed its available seat kilometres — a metric used to calculate capacity — in January-June. Auckland's passenger numbers for the first three months of 2025 dipped by 1pc on the year and on the quarter (see table) with domestic travel plummeting while international transits increased slightly on the quarter. Auckland's available seats to the US dropped by 18pc during March because of cancelled services, the airport said. New Zealand's jet fuel imports totalled 26,000 b/d in the January-March quarter, data from analytics firm Kpler show. Official data for October-December 2024 show 34,000 b/d of imports, up by 17pc on the quarter. The New Zealand government is exploring options for increasing fuel security, including developing biofuels, in the wake of twin reports into the nation's situation released in February. By Tom Major Auckland Airport passenger traffic (mn) Jan-Mar '25 Oct-Dec '24 Jan-Mar '24 q-o-q % ± y-o-y % ± Total 4.93 4.99 5 -1 -1 International 2.79 2.75 2.79 1 0 Domestic 1.86 2.24 2.21 -17 -16 Source - Auckland Airport Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

DG Fuels eyes larger, later Louisiana SAF plant


25/04/29
25/04/29

DG Fuels eyes larger, later Louisiana SAF plant

New York, 29 April (Argus) — US renewable fuels company DG Fuels intends to produce more sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) than it initially planned at its flagship Louisiana project, albeit on a later timeline. DG Fuels president Christopher Chaput told Argus that the company is working to reach a final investment decision on its Louisiana facility by the first quarter of next year and is on track to start delivering "meaningful" amounts of SAF from the site in 2030, later than initially expected. The company continues to look at other potential facilities across the country but is prioritizing its Louisiana plant, which will use the Fischer-Tropsch chemical process to gasify agricultural waste into low-carbon fuels. "Not exclusively, but we are focusing really, really, really hard on the first project, which is Louisiana," Chaput said. Potential sites in Nebraska and Minnesota are the next-furthest along, and the company still owns land in Maine where it could build a similar SAF plant. The facilities would use similar technology but draw from different feedstocks, such as local forest or agricultural waste, and different types of hydrogen. The plan in Louisiana is to produce blue hydrogen, which involves capturing carbon emissions and is eligible for a federal tax credit. That Louisiana facility has also expanded in size, and Chaput says it could ultimately produce 195-200mn USG/yr of fuel — up from estimates last year and an initial projection of 120mn USG/yr. Chaput says the plant's size — which would give it the highest capacity of all Fischer-Tropsch SAF plants planned globally according to Argus estimates — will be an advantage for ultimately producing a cost-competitive fuel. Other potential DG Fuels facilities would be similarly large, a different approach from some other US developers like Aether Fuels, Natural State Renewables and now-defunct Fulcrum Bioenergy that have eyed a similar production process on smaller sites. Some biofuel producers already operational today use a separate process to produce SAF, hydroprocessing vegetable oils and animal fats, and have higher production capacities. But that pathway could ultimately be limited by feedstock constraints and competition from renewable diesel, analysts say, which has spurred investors and airlines to look at other potential pathways. While plants eyeing production in the 2030s might be less exposed to immediate policy risks, biofuel producers in the US have struggled to start 2025 as margins crash from the halting rollout of a new federal tax credit and delayed blend mandates. President Donald Trump's aggressive efforts to curb renewables have scared climate tech start-ups, though Trump has also voiced general support for some other clean energy sources, including biofuels. A government loan to support US refiner Calumet's efforts to produce more SAF was briefly halted this year and then [unpaused]( https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2656961) after a Republican US senator intervened. And policies abroad — including increasingly stringent SAF mandates in the EU and UK — could ultimately support clean fuel developers in the US even if incentives shift stateside. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers


25/04/29
25/04/29

Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers

Washington, 29 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has offered to offset the 25pc tariff on foreign-made auto parts, scheduled to start on 3 May, and to exempt auto parts from any additional tariffs they face from other import taxes imposed in recent months. Trump, who today announced the change in tariffs ahead of a political rally in Michigan, a key US car manufacturing state, cast his decision in terms of giving US automakers a reprieve from his tariff policies. But as in other cases when he changed his mind on tariffs, the US auto industry will still face a substantial burden from import taxes imposed since Trump took office. Trump's 25pc tariffs on foreign cars went into effect on 3 April, and a 25pc tariff on imported auto parts was scheduled to go into effect on 3 May. Under an executive order Trump signed today, the auto makers can be partially refunded the cost of the tariffs on imported auto parts, subject to a cap of 15pc of the value of an assembled car until April 2026, dropping to a 10pc cap until April 2027. The refund cannot exceed 3.75pc of a car's manufacturer suggested retail price in the first year, dropping to 2.5pc in the second year. The idea behind the adjustment is to force US automakers to become wholly reliant on auto parts made in the US in the next two years, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick explained. In theory, at least, a US-made car that is made with 85pc domestic components would not face an additional tariff cost. A separate executive order clarifies that the tariffs on foreign-made cars and auto parts will not be calculated in addition to any other tariffs Trump has imposed on Canada and Mexico, and will not be counted on top of tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum and their derivative products. "This is just a little transition," Trump told reporters at the White House today, announcing the latest reversal of his tariff policy. "We're just giving them a little chance, because in some cases, they can't get the parts fast enough." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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