US utilities are considering additional extensions to coal plant retirements in response to recent policy changes, even though the benefit for the coal industry may be short-lived.
US utilities are still mostly reviewing US president Donald Trump's executive orders issued earlier this month plus other actions initiated by his administration.
One of the more concrete recent actions were the two-year exemptions from complying with updated Mercury and Air Toxics Standards granted to dozens of power plants on 15 April. But even though utilities had applied for these exemptions, the majority of those that spoke to Argus indicated they are still evaluating their options.
"Granting a two-year compliance extension at Labadie and Sioux will enable Ameren Missouri to further refine its compliance strategy and optimize planned monitoring mechanisms to ensure accuracy," said Ameren Missouri director of environmental services Craig Giesmann. "We are committed to selecting cost-effective solutions that minimize the impact on customer rates."
Ameren's 1,099MW Sioux plant is scheduled to be closed by 2028 and the 2,389MW Labadie plant has no concrete retirement date.
Tennessee Valley Authority said it is "carefully reviewing" the mercury and air toxics exemptions "for how it might apply and benefit our efforts to support load growth across our seven-state region." The federal utility was granted exemptions for all of its coal facilities, including units of the Cumberland and Kingston plants that had been scheduled to close by the 1 July 2027 compliance deadline for the new mercury and air toxics standards.
NRG Energy and Xcel Energy also said they are still considering how to proceed.
"It will take our regulatory and environmental teams some time to evaluate and access the new guidelines, so we do not have any update to share at this time," NRG said. The utility was granted exemptions for four coal plants with a combined 7,092MW of capacity. None of these units currently has concrete retirement dates scheduled.
Companies need to take into account other factors before committing to extending a coal unit's life, including natural gas price expectations and whether government regulations will stay in place. In addition, the planning process for retiring and adding generating assets takes time.
These factors also are being taken into account by utilities that do not have coal units on the list of mercury rule exemptions but could be affected by other efforts the Trump administration is making to try to preserve coal generation.
"Whatever impacts may arise from policy changes this year will be assessed in a future [Integrated Resource Plan], with the best analysis of information available at that time," utility PacifiCorp said. The utility just filed its latest integrated resource plan with state regulators on 31 March and does not expect to file another one until early 2027.
Another utility that did not have coal units on the list of mercury rule exemptions but would be affected by other regulatory actions said it is considering extending coal unit operations by a few years.
A US coal producer reported receiving increased inquiries from utilities about the feasibility of continuing to get coal supply beyond power plant units' planned retirement dates. Both buyers and sellers that talked to Argus agree that contract flexibility is gaining importance.
But "even if you roll back some regulations and push deadlines on various retirements and certain requirements out into the future, you still can not justify taking more coal unless it is going to be competitive" with natural gas, one market participant said. While profit margins for dispatching coal in US electric grids were above natural gas spark spreads for a number of days this past winter, that was an anomaly when compared with recent years.
Coal may bridge generating gap
But recent policy changes could help utilities use coal generation to bridge any gaps in generating capacity caused by delays in bringing other energy sources online.
These include possible delays in adding solar generation following increased tariffs the Trump administration has imposed on imports from China as well as legislation moving through some state governing bodies aimed at inhibiting renewable projects.
On 15 April, the Texas Senate passed a bill that would impose restrictions on solar and wind projects, including new permits, fees, regulatory requirements, and taxes. Separately, North Carolina legislators are reviewing a bill that proposes reducing solar tax breaks from 80pc to 40pc and limiting locations for utility-scale projects.
Other states are moving forward with efforts to encourage less carbon-intensive generation. Colorado governor Jared Polis (D) on 31 March signed legislation classifying nuclear energy as a "clean" power source.
Increased renewable energy generating capacity still is expected to be the "main contributor" to growth in US electricity generation, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). But EIA's latest outlook did not take into account the coal-related executive orders Trump signed on 8 April.
"We are currently evaluating these developments, and they will be reflected in the May STEO," EIA chief economist Jonathan Church said.
Most market participants do not expect substantial long-term changes to come from recent coal-supporting efforts because of various other factors including the fundamental economics of coal-fired power plants.
