Brazil Rio Grande do Sul soy harvest reaches 80pc

: Agriculture
25/04/24

The 2024-25 soybean harvest in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state reached 80pc of the expected area, according to regional rural agency Emater-RS.

Work advanced by 20 percentage points in the southern state between 18-24 April.

That is ahead of the 66pc in the same week last year and the 73pc five-year average for the period.

Stable weather conditions, such as sunny days and dry weather, favored progress, which also helpedlogistics operations.

Rio Grande do Sul expects to produce 15.1mn metric tonnes (t) of soybeans in the 2024-25 season, down by 17pc from 18.6mn t in the 2023-24 crop. The 2024-25 soybean crop is set to be sowed in 6.73mn hectares (ha) and register average yields of 2,240 kg/ha. That compares with 6.7mn ha and 2,809 kg/ha, respectively, in the prior cycle.

Summer corn

Rio Grande do Sul's 2024-25 summer corn harvest advanced by 1 percentage point to 89pc of the sowed area in the week ended 24 April.

That is ahead of the 82pc harvested for the 2023-24 crop at this time a year ago and the 79pc five-year average.

The corn harvest is proceeding more slowly compared with other summer crops. But the occurrence of rain and mild temperatures favored late areas' productive potential.

Emater-RS expects the state to produce 4.8mn t of summer corn in the 2024-25 season, a 6pc increase from the 4.5mn t produced in 2023-24. The crop is set to be sowed in around 696,590ha and yield 6,866 kg/ha. The previous season was planted on 808,916ha, posting average yields of 5,646 kg/ha.

Late figures

Emater released data for the week ended 17 April late because of the Easter holiday.

Rio Grande do Sul's 2024-25 soybean harvest advanced by 10 percentage points in the week ended 17 April, reaching 60pc.

That was above the 53pc in 2023-24 crop at the same time a year ago and in line with the five-year-average.

The summer corn harvest advanced by 3 percentage points to 88pc in the same period. That was above the 80pc in the same period of the prior crop and the five-year-average of 77pc.

By Sofia Zizza

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25/05/23

Ukraine spring crop sowing nearly complete

Kyiv, 23 May (Argus) — Ukrainian farmers had sown 5.32mn hectares (ha) of spring grains and pulses by 22 May, covering 94pc of the total national projected area of 5.68mn ha. Meanwhile, oilseed crop planting was completed on 6.38mn ha, representing 85pc of the projected area of 7.47mn ha. Grains Ukrainian farmers sowed about 258,000ha of corn in the week to 22 May, bringing overall planted areas for 2025-26 to 3.76mn ha, or about 93pc of the total national projected area of 4.02mn ha, agriculture ministry data show see data and charts . At the same time, this was slightly below last year's 3.81mn ha sown by 23 May 2024. The planting campaign has already reached projected figures in most of main producing regions, but there is some delay between planting progress reports and the situation in the fields. The ministry continued to report spring wheat and spring barley sowing progress in the week ending on 22 May, but planting of early spring crops is likely to have finished in the fields, market participants said. Ukrainian farmers sowed only 500ha with spring barley in the past week, down from 9,700ha the previous week, with overall spring barley planted areas at 743,600ha, or 96pc of the 776,100ha projected for 2025-26. About 782,200ha were planted at the same time last year. Spring wheat planted areas rose by only about 100ha in the week to 22 May to 215,300ha, or about 95pc of the national projected area of 227,500ha. This was below the 252,500ha planted at the same time last year. Oilseeds Ukraine's farmers kept a mixed pace of oilseed planting in the week to 22 May, with soybean areas surpassing those of a year ago, while sunflower seed (SFS) areas lag behind. Ukrainian farmers sowed 431,100ha with SFS in the reporting week, slightly above the 411,200ha sown in the previous seven days. Overall SFS area planted by 22 May reached 4.35mn ha, or about 86pc of the projected area for 2025-26 of 5.06mn ha. This was below the 4.96mn ha planted at the same time last year. As for soybeans, Ukrainian farmers sowed 292,800ha of the crop in the week to 22 May, bringing overall planted areas to 2.03mn ha for 2025-26, or about 84pc of the total projected area of 2.41mn ha, compared with 2.64mn ha a year earlier. This was above the 1.83mn ha planted at the same time a year earlier. By Alexey Yeromin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican GDP outlook dims on tariffs: IMEF

25/05/21

Mexican GDP outlook dims on tariffs: IMEF

Mexico City, 21 May (Argus) — Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF lowered its 2025 growth forecast for a fourth consecutive month, citing the growing impact of US tariffs on the economy. GDP is now expected to grow just 0.1pc in 2025, according to IMEF's May survey, down from 0.2pc estimates in April, 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. The number of respondents forecasting a contraction in GDP rose to 16, or 37pc of the sample, from nine in April. While the US has granted some exemptions and discounts for Mexican goods meeting regional content rules, IMEF said the effective tariff rate on Mexican exports remains higher than that for Canada, Brazil, India, Vietnam and others. "We're already seeing the [tariffs'] impacts," said IMEF economic studies director Victor Herrera, adding that May trade data will likely show a sharp drop in Mexican exports to the US. Trade is also being hit by a screwworm outbreak in cattle that led to port closures last week and curtailed beef exports, which account for $1.3bn in annual exports. More automakers could relocate or scale back production in Mexico, Herrera said, after Stellantis confirmed plans to shift some operations to the US and recent reports Nissan may close one or both of its Mexican plants. In response, Mexico this week sent deputy economy minister Luis Rosendo Gutierrez to Tokyo to meet with Mazda, Nissan, Toyota and Honda executives. IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 200,000 in May from 220,000 in April. Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported only 43,500 new jobs over the past 12 months as of 5 May. Beyond trade, IMEF flagged uncertainty from recent constitutional reforms and the potential for a US tax on remittances as additional risks to growth. The group held its 2025 inflation forecast steady at 3.8pc, despite Mexico's consumer price index rising to 3.93pc in April from 3.80pc in March . IMEF noted concerns about a potential rebound in inflation later this year after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc on 8 May — the third such cut in 2025. The group now sees the end-2025 rate at 7.75pc, down from 8pc previously. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.80/$1, slightly lower than the Ps20.90/$1 forecast in April. The peso recently strengthened to Ps19.34/$1, though Herrera said this reflected dollar weakness more than peso strength. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA to set biofuel mandate 'very soon': Zeldin

25/05/21

EPA to set biofuel mandate 'very soon': Zeldin

New York, 21 May (Argus) — Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Lee Zeldin stressed Wednesday that the US is working quickly to propose and finalize new biofuel blend mandates. EPA last week sent proposed Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 — and likely at least one future year — to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review, the final step before a draft rule can be released. Zeldin referenced that process at a Senate hearing Wednesday and said "we expect the proposed rule to be finalized and released very soon." Asked by US senator Pete Ricketts (R-Nebraska) whether the agency was planning on releasing something by summer or fall, Zeldin said he was eyeing a "much, much faster" timeline. "We'll finalize this as quickly as we possibly can," he said. Zeldin has stressed at recent House and Senate hearings that the agency is expediting the months-delayed rulemaking. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, EPA requires oil refiners and importers to blend annual amounts of different types of biofuels into the conventional fuel supply. EPA decisions on volume mandates — and on requests for exemptions from small refiners — are highly influential for crop feedstock demand, biofuel production margins and retail fuel prices. Zeldin said last week at a House subcommittee hearing that EPA was also weighing what to do with a backlog of requests from small refiners for exemptions from program requirements. "None of these were getting approved at all in the last administration," Zeldin said. "We want to get caught up as quickly as we can." EPA has not commented more recently on its specific timeline and plans, but the agency said earlier this year that it wanted to get the frequently delayed biofuel program back on its statutory timeline. The Clean Air Act requires new volumes to be finalized 14 months in advance of a compliance year, which in this case would require proposed volumes for 2027 to be released soon for public comment and then finalized before November this year. A coalition of industry groups, including the American Petroleum Institute and Clean Fuels Alliance America, have pushed the agency to hike the biomass-based diesel mandate from 3.35bn USG this year to a record-high 5.25bn USG next year. Other groups, including fuel marketers, have urged more caution given a sharp drop in biofuel production to start 2025 and uncertainty about the future of a federal clean fuel tax credit being renegotiated in Congress. As part of the White House process, outside groups can seek meetings with the Trump administration to present their views on a pending regulation. Meetings are scheduled through 4 June on the proposed volumes — and through 9 June on a related rule to cut last year's cellulosic biofuel quota — though the US has expedited the process before. Last year, President Joe Biden's administration cancelled previously scheduled meetings on the initial proposal to cut cellulosic targets as a way to more speedily exit the review process. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Weather, crush margins to cushion RSO from UK-EU deal

25/05/21

Weather, crush margins to cushion RSO from UK-EU deal

London, 21 May (Argus) — The establishment of a UK-EU Sanitary and Phytosanitary Zone (SPS), announced at the UK-EU summit this week, could boost flows of UK-origin rapeseed oil (RSO) to the bloc. But pressure from increased availability on fob Dutch mill RSO prices could be somewhat offset by lower crush margins in Europe and international weather markets. The UK's share in the EU's RSO import mix fell markedly after the country exited the bloc in 2020. The UK accounted for just 7pc of extra-EU imports across the last two marketing years (July-June) to date, customs data show, compared with an average of 41pc between 2016 and 2020 (see chart). Agreed removals of some certifications and routine checks on EU-bound UK exports are likely to boost the volumes of UK RSO going to the EU, market participants said. But the pressure of increased supply from the UK on cargoes loading in the Netherlands could be cushioned by less attractive crushing margins and a wait-and-see approach to farmer selling. Relatively low rapeseed crush margins — which have fallen by around €10/t on the year for August-September-October positions, market participants told Argus — has weighed on EU domestic crushing activity. This has largely offset price support from thin biofuel-sector demand in Europe and could limit the impact of greater supply potential from the UK. And UK rapeseed supply is set to fall below previous years' levels, with planted areas forecast at a record-low 240,000 hectares (ha) in 2025-26 by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s local attache. Farmers have been deterred from rapeseed production by unattractive margins and unfavourable growing conditions in the prior season, according to the USDA. This, paired with forecast firming domestic demand, could limit available supply to the EU compared with pre-Brexit marketing seasons. Participants across the rapeseed market are now monitoring crop conditions in producing regions, with many farmers holding back from committing to new-crop sales. UK crop conditions are rated 59pc good-to-excellent as of April, latest Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board data show — roughly in line with the previous three-year average of 61pc for this stage in the season. But recent dry weather across the UK and Europe could lead to some uncertainty, with producers awaiting forecast rainfall later this week to offer greater clarity on crop conditions. Further afield, global RSO supplies could come under some pressure from a deteriorating Ukrainian production outlook and low Australian soil moisture levels. By Megan Evans UK share of extra-EU RSO imports '000t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US budget bill would prolong 45Z, boost crops

25/05/13

US budget bill would prolong 45Z, boost crops

New York, 13 May (Argus) — A proposal from House Republican tax-writers would extend for four additional years a new tax credit for low-carbon fuels and adjust the incentive to be more lenient to crops used for biofuels. Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee on Monday introduced their draft portion of a far-reaching budget bill, which included various changes to Inflation Reduction Act clean energy subsidies. But the "45Z" Clean Fuel Production Credit, which requires fuels to meet an initial carbon intensity threshold and then ups the subsidy as emissions fall, would be the only incentive from the 2022 climate law to last even longer than Democrats planned under the current draft. The proposal represents an early signal of Republicans' plans for major legislation through the Senate's reconciliation process, which allows budget-related bills to pass with a simple majority vote. The full Ways and Means Committee will consider amendments at a markup this afternoon, and House leaders want the full chamber to vote on the larger budget bill before the US Memorial Day holiday on 26 May. Afterwards, the proposal would head to the Republican-controlled Senate, where lawmakers could float further changes. But the early draft, in a chamber with multiple deficit hawks and climate change skeptics that have pushed for a full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, is remarkable for not just keeping but expanding 45Z. The basics of the incentive — offering benefits to producers instead of blenders, throttling benefits based on carbon intensity, and offering more credit to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) — would remain intact. Various changes would help fuels derived from US crops. The most notable would prevent regulators measuring carbon intensity from considering "indirect land use change" emissions that attempt to quantify the risks of using agricultural land for fuel instead of food. Under current emissions modeling, the typical dry mill corn ethanol plant does not meet the 45Z credit's initial carbon intensity requirement — but substantially more gallons produced today would have a chance at qualifying without any new investments in carbon capture if this bill were to pass. The indirect land use change would also create the possibility for canola-based fuels, which are just slightly too carbon-intensive to qualify for 45Z today, to start claiming some subsidy. Fuels from soybean oil currently qualify but would similarly benefit from larger potential credits. Still, credit values would depend on final regulations and updated carbon accounting from President Donald Trump's administration. Since the House proposal does not address the current law's blunt system for rounding emissions values up and down, relatively higher-carbon corn and canola fuels still face the risk of falling just below 45Z's required carbon intensity threshold but then being rounded up to a level where they receive zero subsidy. The House bill would also restrict eligibility to fuels derived from feedstocks sourced in the US, Canada, and Mexico — an attempt at a middle ground between refiners that have increasingly looked abroad for biofuel inputs and domestic farm groups that have lobbied for 45Z to prioritize US crops. That language would make more durable current restrictions on foreign used cooking oil and significantly reduce the incentive to import tallow from South America and Australia, a loss for major renewable diesel producers Diamond Green Diesel, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum. The provision would also hurt US biofuel producer LanzaJet, which has imported lower-carbon Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as a SAF feedstock to the chagrin of domestic corn ethanol producers. The bill would also require regulators to set more granular carbon intensity calculations for different types of animal manure biogas projects, all of which are treated the same under current rules. Other lifecycle emissions models treat some dairy projects at deeply negative carbon intensities. Those changes to carbon intensity calculations and feedstock eligibility would kick in starting next year, meaning current rules would remain intact for now. The proposal would however phase out the ability of clean energy companies without enough tax liability to claim the full value of Inflation Reduction Act subsidies to sell those tax credits to other businesses. That pathway, known as transferability, would end for clean fuel producers after 2027, hurting small biodiesel producers that operate under thin margins in the best of times as well as SAF startups that were planning to start producing fuel later this decade. Markets unresponsive, but prepare for new possibilities There was little immediate reaction across biofuel, feedstock, and renewable identification number (RIN) credit markets, since the bill could be modified and most of the changes would only take force in the future. But markets may shift down the road. Limiting eligibility to feedstocks originating in North America for instance could continue recent strength in US soybean oil futures markets. July CBOT Soybean oil futures closed 3pc higher on Monday at 49.92¢/lb on the news and have traded even higher today. The spread between soybean oil and heating oil futures is then highly influential for the cost of D4 biomass-based diesel RIN credits, which are crucial for biofuel margins and have recently surged in value to their highest prices in over a year. The more lenient carbon accounting will also help farmers eyeing a long-term future in renewable fuel markets and will support margins for ethanol and biodiesel producers reliant on crops. Corn and soy groups have pushed the government for less punitive emissions tracking, worried that crop demand could wane if refiners could only turn a profit by using lower-carbon waste feedstocks instead. The House bill, if passed, would still run up against contradictory incentives from other governments, including SAF mandates in Europe that restrict fuels from crops and California's efforts to soon limit state low-carbon fuel standard credits for fuels derived from vegetable oils. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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