China's NP/NPS exports hit record high in January-March

China's NP/NPS exports jumped by more than eightfold to an all-time high of about 614,000t over January-March, latest trade data show, as it is a more affordable alternative to DAP/MAP, given tighter phosphate export availability and higher fertilizer prices globally.

This was largely driven by record-high shipments to Brazil and India in the first quarter, both of which did not receive any NP/NPS exports a year earlier. Shipments to Brazil and India reached 315,000t and 94,000t respectively in January-March.

China exported more formulas, including NP 8-40-0, to Brazil so far this year as a lower-priced alternative to MAP, given higher fertilizer prices in Brazil. Indian importers are also seeking more NPKs and NPS, such as 20-20-0+13S, because of a lack of DAP fertilizer supply out of China. Such imports into India also allow the importer to maintain a positive margin under the current subsidy and maximum retail price, as compared to importing DAP.

China's NPK exports over January-March also nearly tripled from a year earlier to 169,000t, which is also a four-year high, largely driven by an eightfold increase in shipments to the Philippines, its largest importer at about 63,000t. Favourable weather conditions this year led to more local rice production, according to the Philippines' Department of Agriculture, likely contributing to an increase in demand for complex fertilizers. The El Niño phenomenon hit the Philippines in the first quarter of 2024, when prolonged periods of dry spells damaged about 780,000 hectares of crops across 271,000t of agricultural land, which likely affected fertilizer demand and affordability last year. Lower prices of 16-20 from China in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, according to Argus, also likely boosted affordability levels.

Some Chinese DAP producers have switched their production line to producing NP/NPS to cater to the growing demand from overseas buyers, alongside the end of the domestic spring season and slowing domestic demand for DAP. The lack of clarity on DAP/MAP exports also supported Chinese phosphate producers in pivoting to more NP/NPS exports . Exports availability of phosphates may reduce shipments of NP/NPS in favour of DAP/MAP.

Suppliers are also expecting more demand from Brazil this year, according to market participants, as China is likely to import more soybeans from Brazil in light of recent tariffs imposed on US imports. Firm DAP prices in India are also likely to continue pushing Indian importers to buy more NP/NPS. Importers in India have cancelled at least three sales of DAP above $690/t cfr from Russia and Tunisia. But there was no confirmation of the cancellations from the suppliers.

By Camila Tay