US adds 177,000 jobs in April, jobless rate steady

: Crude oil, Metals
25/05/02

The US added 177,000 jobs in April, topping expectations, even as the new US administration's campaign of tariffs against allies and trading partners heightened business and consumer uncertainty.

Economists surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast job gains of 130,000 for April.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2pc in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. Job gains for March were revised lower by 43,000 to 185,000.

The unexpectedly strong job report comes two days after the government reported the economy contracted at a 0.3pc annual rate in the first quarter, largely on a surge in imports as companies sought to build inventory ahead of the impacts of President Donald Trump's import tariffs. Consumer and business confidence have tumbled and economists have raised the odds of a US recession this year.

US job gains averaged 152,000 in the 12 months prior to April.

Federal government employment declined by 9,000 jobs in April and has fallen by 26,000 since January as mass federal layoffs take effect. Employees on paid leave or receiving severance pay are counted as employed, BLS said, so most of the announced federal job cuts do not yet show up in the data.

Health care added 51,000 jobs in April, while transportation and warehousing added 29,000 jobs, more than double the average in the prior 12 months. Financial activities added 14,000 jobs.

Construction added 11,000 jobs and manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs.

Leisure and hospitality jobs grew by 24,000 and health care and social assistance added 78,000 jobs.

Average hourly earnings rose by a 3.8pc annual rate, unchanged from the pace in March.

By Bob Willis

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25/12/19

Viewpoint: Indonesia’s MHP surge to hit nickel prices

Singapore, 19 December (Argus) — Indonesia is likely to expand its mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP) plant capacity further in 2026, supported by record-high cobalt prices and strong production economics, a move that could deepen nickel oversupply and weigh on prices. Current output Indonesia's MHP output is projected to reach 482,000t in nickel metal equivalent this year — almost a 50pc rise from 2024, according to Argus estimates. Argus -assessed 37pc nickel payable MHP prices have fallen by 2.6pc on the year to $127.40/metric tonne unit (mtu) so far in 2025, while Class 1 nickel prices have dipped from $17,000/t to around $15,350/t over the same period. Nickel prices will likely remain depressed in the low-$15,000s/t range in 2026 because supply expansion is outpacing demand growth. Demand has slowed as the electric vehicle (EV) market growth has cooled in recent years, with annual growth in global EV car sales slowing from 26pc in 2024 to 23pc in 2025. Nickel demand growth could also face further headwinds from increasing competition from other battery types such as nickel-free lithium-iron-phosphate and high-manganese chemistries. This could increase the nickel surplus, further weighing down on overall nickel prices. Indonesia has consolidated its position as the leading global MHP supplier after most Western plants halted operations in late 2023. The country currently hosts around 10 operating MHP projects with a combined designed capacity of about 440,000 t/yr of nickel. Most projects are owned by Chinese giants Ningbo Lygend, Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM), and Huayou, in collaboration with local producers Merdeka, Harita Nickel, and PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI). MHP capacity expansion More MHP projects are expected in the near-term, bolstered by elevated cobalt prices, as MHP typically contains 2-5pc of cobalt. Refineries have been seeking cobalt alternatives because of constrained supply following export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) since February. Indonesia's cobalt feedstock capacity is projected to hit around 65,000 t/yr in 2026, while global cobalt supply is expected to hit 210,000t over the same period, according to Argus data. The lucrativeness of MHP in comparison with other nickel products, such as nickel pig iron (NPI), is another driver for investment. MHP production cost: $10,500–11,000/t (December estimate) Processing cost to convert MHP into nickel metal: $3,000–3,500/t Total cost for MHP to nickel metal: $13,500–14,500/t NPI to nickel metal cost: $14,000–14,500/t Additionally, cobalt by-product sales (around $2,000/t) help offset MHP production costs, effectively reducing net costs to $11,500–12,500/t, making MHP more lucrative than NPI. Outlook Concerns are mounting that rapid expansion of Indonesia's MHP capacity will further pressure on nickel prices. Argus forecasts Indonesia's MHP capacity to nearly double on the year to 862,000 t/yr in 2026, as several HPAL projects are scheduled to be commissioned in 2026. While not all capacity will translate into production, any additional output will add to an already oversupplied market, intensifying the glut. The overall nickel surplus is estimated at 212,000t in 2025 and is projected to reach 288,000t in 2026, according to Argus data. Indonesia has tightened its efforts to regulate nickel pricing and oversupply this year, reverting the validity period for RKAB mining quotas to one year. The government also suspended some nickel mines due to a lack of reclamation and post-mining guarantees, while lands were seized from Weda Bay Nickel and Tonia Mitra Sejahtera for lacking forestry permits. These policy changes have yet to significantly impact nickel prices, but remain critical factors that could disrupt supply and influence the price outlook. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

25/12/18

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

Washington, 18 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives on Thursday approved a bill designed to fast-track permitting for energy projects and reduce related litigation risks. But a last-minute change Republicans made to exclude some offshore wind and solar projects led some Democrats and a major clean energy group to withdraw support, complicating the bill's chances of passage in the Senate. The Republican-controlled House voted 221-196 to pass the SPEED Act, with 11 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote for what would be the most significant changes to federal permitting in years. The bill will now advance to the US Senate, where proponents will likely need to agree to make significant changes if they hope to pick up the votes of at least seven Democrats to avoid a filibuster. The bill "finally brings common sense by cutting red tape that dramatically increases the cost and, in some cases, just makes it economically unfeasible to do projects", House Republican majority leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said. The SPEED Act focuses on revising project reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which is a source of delay and litigation risk for pipelines and renewable projects alike. The bill would require federal agencies to narrow those reviews and uphold those decisions even if federal courts find them to be inadequate. The bill would also provide permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals, averting a repeat of events like the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. "We applaud the House for advancing the SPEED Act, a bipartisan, commonsense step toward fixing a federal permitting system that's long been broken," oil industry group the American Petroleum Institute said. Republican leaders were hoping 30-40 Democrats would join them to support the SPEED Act. The bill had broad bipartisan support when it was drafted because of provisions meant to prevent permitting delays that have plagued both oil and gas pipelines and renewable energy development. But Republican leaders, to satisfy far-right conservatives, made a change to the bill earlier this week that would prevent its expedited permitting procedures from benefiting any project that Trump's administration has blocked or revisited since 20 January. The Trump administration has targeted multiple offshore wind and solar projects this year and has ordered the developer of the nearly complete 704MW Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island to stop construction. That change fractured a bipartisan coalition that had spent months working on technology-neutral permitting language. The American Clean Power Association, the largest industry group for US renewable energy, on Wednesday withdrew its support of the bill , arguing the "poison pill amendment" that Republicans made eviscerated bipartisan language that gave expedited permitting treatment for all types of energy resources. A number of House Democrats who had backed the bill also withdrew their support. American Clean Power plans to work with both parties in the Senate to make changes. "This is not the final draft," representative Scott Peters (D-California) said during floor debate Thursday, vowing to work with his colleagues in the Senate to address House Democrats' concerns. By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US inflation slows to 2.7pc in November

25/12/18

US inflation slows to 2.7pc in November

Houston, 18 December (Argus) — US inflation unexpectedly slowed in November, according to the government's first monthly report following a federal shutdown that led to no data reported for October. The consumer price index (CPI) in November rose by 2.7pc from a year earlier, the smallest gain since July and down from 3pc in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Thursday. The BLS did not collect survey data for October due to a lapse in appropriations because of the 43-day federal government shutdown that ended on 12 November. President Donald Trump sacked the BLS director in August after labor market revisions revealed unexpected job losses in prior months. "November's CPI data have to be treated cautiously, given that CPI data collection resumed only on the 14th after the end of the shutdown," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note after the report. CME's FedWatch tool after the report showed a 26.6pc chance the Federal Reserve will cut its target rate in January, up from 24.4pc on Wednesday. The Fed last week cut its target rate by a quarter point, the third such reduction this year, and penciled in only one such cut next year and in 2027. So called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, slowed to a 2.6pc annual pace in November from 3pc in September. Services less energy services, a measure of core services inflation, rose by 3pc in November compared with a 3.5pc gain in September. The energy index rose by 4.2pc on the year, up from a 2.8pc gain in September, BLS said. The gasoline index rose by an annual 0.9pc in November compared with a 0.5pc decline in September. The fuel oil index rose by 11.3pc in November, surging from a 4.1pc gain in September, and the energy services index rose by 7.4pc in November, accelerating from a 6.4pc gain in September. The shelter index rose by 3pc in November, slowing from 3.6pc in September New vehicles rose by 0.6pc in November while used vehicles rose by 3.6pc. The food index rose on the year by 2.6pc in November following a 3.1pc gain in September. Meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose by 4.7pc in November. Medical care services rose by 3.3pc in November after a 3.9pc gain in September. Household furnishings and decorations, which are affected by import tariffs, rose by 4.6pc after a 4.1pc gain in September. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ithaca first to try new UK North Sea regime

25/12/18

Ithaca first to try new UK North Sea regime

London, 18 December (Argus) — UK-listed upstream producer Ithaca Energy has begun the approval process for a development in the North Sea, the first since the government softened its approach to the region. Ithaca has submitted a development summary and environmental statement for the Fotla field to the offshore regulator Opred. It outlines a two-well tie-back to the Britannia platform, which processes liquids from the Greater Britannia Area, including Ithaca's Alder field. Ithaca indicates that if the process is successful, drilling will begin in the first half of 2027, with first oil in the final quarter of that year. This is the first submission of an offshore proposal since the UK government published its 'North Sea Future Plan' alongside its budget in late November. That enables "limited oil and gas production in areas that are already part of an existing field, or in areas adjacent to already licensed fields, linked via a tieback, to help ensure they remain economically viable". Developers are not permitted to explore for oil and gas at these sites, and a ban remains on new oil and gas licensing. London's stance on North Sea development has delayed the Rosebank project, in which Ithaca holds a 20pc stake, and the company's west of Shetland Cambo project. Ithaca expects its production to average 119,000-125,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) this year. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Traders offer CBAM paid import at discount to NW EU HRC

25/12/18

Traders offer CBAM paid import at discount to NW EU HRC

London, 18 December (Argus) — Some traders are starting to offer imported hot-rolled coil at varying discounts to Argus ' benchmark north EU HRC index inclusive of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), suggesting they do not believe they will have to pay default values for the material. One trader was this week offering Indian HRC at a discount of €10/t to the monthly average of the Argus index for May 2026. Indian fixed-price cfr offers are around €470/t, while April is currently trading around €665/t on the CME Group's north EU HRC contract, for which Argus ' index is the cash-settlement basis. This suggests the trader believes it will not have to pay default values for the material; India's default value of 4.7t and the relevant benchmark of 1.37 would imply a CBAM cost of almost €270/t and an all-in cost of €740/t, assuming a carbon price of €80/t. Another trader reportedly offered Indonesian material at a steeper discount to the index for April arrival. Indonesia's default value of over 9t, against the benchmark of 1.37/t, would imply a carbon cost alone of over €617/t, suggesting it also assumes it will not pay the default value. The mill in question has informed market participants its direct emissions intensity is around 1.2t. The offers suggest, unsurprisingly, traders expect CBAM costs to be factored into the domestic market price, as reflected by Argus ' index. They also suggest traders believe domestic material will retain a premium to imports: at a recent Eurometal conference in Dusseldorf, some buyers suggested domestic material from one or two mills may in effect become the marginal tonne, as CBAM increases import costs. Increased complexity in importing — predominantly driven by CBAM and revisions to the EU safeguard — is steadily pushing the market towards buying on delivered duty paid terms, meaning buyers run no duty risk. This is typically being absorbed by traders. Most ddp offers have risen in recent weeks, in response to a flurry of leaked CBAM documents. Traders had been offering around €570/t ddp a few weeks back, but these offers have now mainly climbed to €600-620t ddp, reflecting more prohibitive default values and an expectation that prices will rise in the first quarter, enabling traders to book more profit. There was an offer reported yesterday at €585/t ddp Antwerp from Asia for April-May. The origin of the material was unclear, but some said it was from Vietnam. The rise in ddp offer volumes and prices has led to an increase in trading on the CME Group's north EU HRC contract in the last week or two. A 15,000t deal traded on 16 December for the fourth quarter of 2026 at €684/t, which derivatives traders said was likely an attractive buying price. Over the first three days of this week, around 36,700t traded on the CME contract, compared with just over 41,000t the whole of last week and 11,260t the preceding week. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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