The US light sweet crude benchmark will be roughly $2/bl lower this year than previously expected with a shifting trade war continuing to add uncertainty, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today.
WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $61.81/bl in 2025, the agency said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), lower by $2.07/bl from its April forecast. The US light sweet benchmark will fall further yet to $55.24/bl in 2026, or $2.24/bl lower from the prior STEO.
Brent prices were revised downward by similar amounts and are now forecast at $65.85/bl in 2025 and $59.24/bl in 2026.
The latest STEO reflects tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump on 2 April but not a subsequent 90-day suspension of tariffs to some countries. The EIA estimates the tariff suspensions will likely have some offsetting effects to a subsequent escalation in Chinese tariffs, which were also not included in the latest outlook.
A tariff-induced slowdown in the economy is expected to weigh on oil consumption, which the EIA projects will not keep pace with rising output.
Global production of oil and liquid fuels was raised to 104.13mn b/d for 2025 and to 105.43mn b/d for 2026. These are higher from the prior forecast by 30,000 b/d and 80,000 b/d, respectively.
Global consumption is now expected to average 103.71mn b/d in 2025, higher by 70,000 b/d from the previous forecast. Consumption in 2026 is forecast at 104.61mn b/d, lower by 70,000 b/d.
In the US, domestic consumption is projected to average 20.5mn b/d in 2025, higher by 120,000 b/d compared to last month's STEO. Consumption was lowered for 2026 by 50,000 b/d at 20.44mn b/d.
Domestic production will come in at 13.42mn b/d in 2025 and 13.49mn b/d in 2026, the EIA said. This is lower by 90,000 b/d and 70,000 b/d compared to the April STEO.
