26/02/12
Indonesia’s RKAB cuts threaten sulphur demand
Singapore, 12 February (Argus) — Proposed cuts to Indonesia's nickel production
quotas will potentially weigh on operating rates at high-pressure acid leaching
(HPAL) plants and raise production costs. Indonesia's energy and mineral
resources ministry (ESDM) is expected by market participants to reduce this
year's nickel ore work plans and budgets (RKAB) quotas to 250mn–260mn t, down
sharply from 370mn t in 2025, which has caused consternation in the market since
January. Concerns intensified after French miner Eramet confirmed on 11 February
that its subsidiary Weda Bay Nickel (WBN) — the world's largest nickel mine —
was allocated just 12mn wet metric tonnes (wmt) of RKAB for 2026, a steep drop
from 42mn wmt last year. The announcement triggered a prompt spike in benchmark
nickel prices, with the three-month London Metal Exchange (LME) contract
settling at $17,940/t on 11 February, up by 4.4pc on the day. Sulphur and
sulphuric acid are crucial feedstocks for producing nickel matte and mixed
hydroxide precipitate (MHP) via the RKEF and HPAL processes respectively, with
sulphuric acid in Indonesia typically generated by burning sulphur in on-site
plants. The tightened RKAB quotas may lead to two potential outcomes. Producers
may need to increase nickel ore imports from the Philippines or New Caledonia to
maintain feedstock supply, raising production costs. But export availability
from both sources remains constrained, with the Philippines already channelling
most ore sales to China, while New Caledonia continues to face operational
challenges. Meanwhile, surging sulphur prices have already eroded margins. Argus
assessed granular sulphur cfr Indonesia at $542.50/t on a midpoint basis on 5
February, a rise of $367/t, or 196pc, from 3 January 2025. The sharp increase
has been driven in part by robust demand from Indonesia's rapidly expanding
nickel industry, which imported 5.35mn t of sulphur in 2025, 48pc higher than a
year earlier. The rise in sulphur prices combined with limited ore supply may
push margins for downstream products such as MHP into negatives. The second
possible outcome is curtailed operating rates. Battery metals producers were
mostly running at above nameplate capacities at their HPAL units through most of
2025, market sources said. A reduction in utilisation would directly impact
demand for both sulphur and sulphuric acid. But this remains unlikely, given
that HPAL facilities are typically required to operate at high rates for
cost-efficiency. Higher production costs or lower capacity utilisation rates may
lead to weaker demand or delays in new Indonesian projects. The latest RKAB
quota reductions are expected to primarily affect operations in the Indonesia
Weda Bay Industrial Park (IWIP) in North Maluku, the main recipient of WBN
nickel ore. IWIP hosts Chinese producer Huafei, which requires around 1.67mn
t/yr of sulphur at capacity, and Indonesian firm Blue Sparking, which came on
line last month and requires 666,667 t/yr of sulphur at capacity. Stainless
steel producer Tsingshan's Guangqing project, slated for commissioning in 2027
and expected to add another 666,667 t/yr of sulphur demand, may also face
delays. By Deon Ngee Send comments and request more information at
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