US producer Core raises coal sales volume outlook

: Coal, Electricity, Petroleum coke
25/05/08

US coal producer Core Natural Resources plans to sell more coal in 2025 than previously anticipated, with stronger domestic utility demand expected to offset challenging seaborne market conditions and some production setbacks.

Core projected on Thursday that it will ship around 75.5mn-81mn st (68.5mn-73.5mn metric tonnes) of thermal and metallurgical coal this year, up from its February forecast of 72.5mn-79mn st.

The new expectations for this year still are lower than the combined 85mn st sold in 2024 by Arch Resources and Consol Energy before the two companies merged in January to form Core.

On the thermal side, Core has 75.6mn st of coal under contract to ship this year, including 26.5mn st of high calorific-value (CV) thermal coal, 41.9mn st of Powder River basin (PRB) coal and 7.2mn st of metallurgical coal.

While the global trade environment is "uncertain", there are domestic opportunities because of continued US electricity load growth, chief executive Paul Lang said on Core's first-quarter earnings call.

Overall US electricity generation was 3pc higher in 2024 than in 2023. And in the first four months of this year, generation was 3.9pc higher than in January-April 2024 as coal-fired generation climbed by around 20pc, more than offsetting a "small" decline in natural gas power, Lang said.

Colder-than-normal weather during the first quarter resulted in surging natural gas prices and higher power prices in the PJM Interconnection, causing generators to dispatch more coal power than expected and trimming inventories.

Utilities are in the market earlier this year than they had been recently, seeking both spot and term coal volumes, Core senior vice president Robert Braithwaite said.

"We actually have a couple [requests for proposals] out today," Braithwaite said. One solicitation is for deliveries through 2030 and one is for deliveries through 2028, he said, without naming the prospective buyers.

Core also expects a number of international headwinds to be short-lived. While there has been "a bit of a price wall" for potential high-sulfur thermal coal business to India because of recent drops in petroleum coke prices, "we would expect that to pick back up in the coming months", Braithwaite said. In addition, if there is a trade deal between China and the US, China may resume buying US thermal coal and petroleum coke, he said. This would tighten the supply of coal and petroleum coke going into the Indian market and support higher fuel prices, according to Braithwaite.

And although seaborne metallurgical coal markets remained muted during the first quarter, growing blast furnace capacity in southeast Asia is anticipated to strengthen export demand for US coking coal, Lang said.

Last quarter, the company sold 2.31mn st of metallurgical coal. Record quarterly production at Core's metallurgical coal-producing Leer mine in West Virginia limited the impact of a longwall outage at Leer South, which was sealed in January to extinguish a fire.

Core said it resumed continuous miner operations at Leer South in February and expects to restart longwall production by the middle of this year.

In addition, there were three longwall moves at the producer's Pennsylvania mining complex during the quarter. Lang noted that there is a fourth longwall move currently in progress at the complex, and the fifth and final planned move for 2025 will occur in the back half of the year.

Core's total coal sales during the first quarter fell to 20.1mn st of thermal and metallurgical, down from 21.3mn shipped by Consol and Arch combined a year earlier.

Core sold 7.1mn st of high CV thermal coal at an average price of $63.18/st last quarter, and 10.7mn st of PRB coal priced at an average of $14.93/st. In the first quarter of 2024, Consol's Pennsylvania mining complex sold 6.1mn st of high CV coal and Arch shipped 12.8mn st out of the PRB and from its high-CV West Elk mine in Colorado.

By Anna Harmon

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25/06/12

UK ETS emissions fell by 11pc on the year in 2024

Seville, 12 June (Argus) — Emissions in sectors covered by the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS) declined by 11.5pc year on year in 2024, data published by the UK ETS authority show, slowing their decline slightly from the previous year. Stationary installations covered by the UK ETS emitted 76.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), down by 12.9pc from 2023, the data show. But this was offset somewhat by a 2pc increase in aviation emissions to 8.99mn t CO2e. Overall UK ETS emissions now have declined for two consecutive years, having fallen by 12.5pc in 2023. Emissions under the scheme rose by 2.5pc in 2022, as a strong rebound in aviation activity following earlier Covid-19 restrictions outweighed declining stationary emissions. Stationary emissions have decreased in every year since the scheme launched in 2021. The majority of the decline in stationary emissions under the UK ETS last year took place in the power sector, where emissions dropped by 18.2pc to 30.6mn t CO2e. The country's last coal-fired plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, closed in September last year. And the share of gas-fired output in the generation mix dipped as wind, solar and biomass production and electricity imports edged higher. Industrial emissions also declined, by 8.9pc to 46.1mn t CO2e. The iron and steel sector posted the largest relative drop of 30pc to 6.54mn t CO2e. Emissions from crude extraction fell by 6.4pc to 6.0mn t CO2e, while emissions from gas extraction, manufacture and distribution activities decreased by 8.9pc to 5.3mn t CO2e. The chemicals sector emitted 2.28mn t CO2e, down by 5.2pc on the year. A total of 43 installations were marked as having surrendered fewer carbon allowances than their cumulative emissions since the launch of the UK ETS, as of 1 May. A further two installations failed to report their emissions by the deadline. "Appropriate enforcement action" will be taken against operators that fail to surrender the required allowances, the UK ETS authority said. Overall greenhouse gas emissions across the UK economy dropped by a smaller 4pc last year, data published by the government in March show. This decline also was driven principally by lower gas and coal use in the power and industry sectors, with smaller declines in transport and agriculture, not covered by the UK ETS, and an increase in buildings emissions, also out of the scheme's scope. Emissions under the EU ETS in 2024 dipped by a projected 4.5pc from a year earlier, based on preliminary data published by the European Commission in April. The UK and EU last month announced that they will "work towards" linking the two systems together. By Victoria Hatherick UK ETS emissions mn t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA seeks end to power plant CO2, mercury rules

25/06/11

EPA seeks end to power plant CO2, mercury rules

Washington, 11 June (Argus) — The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Wednesday proposed the repeal of CO2 and mercury emissions standards for power plants, its latest steps in an effort to undo many of the regulations enacted by President Donald Trump's predecessors The agency said the repeals will help bring about an end to the "war on much of our domestic energy supply" waged by previous administrations, while saving consumers money "We have chosen to both protect the environment and grow the economy," EPA administrator Lee Zeldin said. "There was this false binary choice made before we got here." Together, the repeals would save more than $1bn/yr for American families, Zeldin said. The standards, finalized last year by EPA during the administration of former president Joe Biden, cover CO2 emissions from existing and new coal-fired power plants and new natural gas-fired units, as well as mercury emissions from coal- and oil-fired power plants. At the time, EPA said the CO2 rules will lead to a 90pc reduction in emissions from coal-fired power plants, while it tightened the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) for coal- and oil-fired units by 67pc and included new emissions-monitoring requirements. In addition, the MATS for lignite-fired units were tightened by 70pc to put them in line with the standards for other coal plants. The CO2 rule includes standards for new coal and gas units and guidance for existing coal-fired power plants, the latter of which vary by unit type, size and other factors such as whether a power plant provides baseload or backup power. It does not include standards for existing gas-fired generators, which EPA had proposed in 2023 but last year decided to scrap in favor of a "new, comprehensive approach". While the CO2 regulation would be fully repealed, Zeldin said the agency is proposing to only undo last year's "gratuitous" changes to MATS, such as the new lignite standards. "If finalized no power plant will be allowed to emit more than they do now or as much as they did one or two years ago," he said. In addition to repealing the two Biden regulations, EPA is proposing to undo the Clean Power Plan, developed by the agency during the administration of former president Barack Obama. It would do this in part by reversing a previous agency determination that it could regulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power plants, and by also finding that those emissions "do not contribute significantly to dangerous air pollution." The Clean Power Plan has never been enforced, and the US Supreme Court in 2022 ruled the agency lacked the authority to regulate CO2 emissions from power plants in the way envisioned by that approach. Unlike during Trump's first term, when EPA first sought to repeal the Clean Power Plan, the agency this time around is not proposing any replacement. The previous replacement rule was struck down by the US District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals in 2021. The lack of a new rule could make EPA more vulnerable to legal challenges, which are all but certain to be filed by environmental groups and some states. "This administration is transparently trading American lives for campaign dollars and the support of fossil fuel companies, and Americans ought to be disgusted and outraged that their government has launched an assault on our health and our future," Sierra Club climate policy director Patrick Drupp said. Zeldin said he was not concerned about any potential litigation. "I would say with great enthusiasm and excitement for the future, I know we are absolutely going down the right path," he said. Coal and electric sector groups cheered EPA's proposal. "Today's announcement nullifies two of EPA's most consequential air rules, removing deliberately unattainable standards and leveling the playing field for reliable power sources, instead of stacking the deck against them," National Mining Association president Rich Nolan said. EPA in March included the CO2 and mercury rules among 31 Obama and Biden-era regulations and actions it planned to review and potentially repeal. Since then, the White House has identified more than 60 fossil fuel-fired power plants that will have two extra years to comply with the more-stringent MATS, giving them a reprieve while EPA works to formally repeal the regulations. The March announcement also included a reconsideration of the 2009 endangerment finding for GHG emissions, which underpins all of the major climate regulations EPA issued in recent years. "I don't have anything to announce today as it relates to any proposed rulemaking that may be to come on that topic," Zeldin said. EPA will open a 45-day public comment period on each proposed repeal once they are published in the Federal Register . By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EIA raises US 2026 renewables outlook

25/06/11

EIA raises US 2026 renewables outlook

Houston, 11 June (Argus) — The US renewable energy fleet remains on track to provide an increasing portion of the country's total electricity over the next two years, even with some changes in the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest projections. Renewable energy is on track to supply almost 1.1bn MWh in 2025 and 1.2bn MWh in 2026, enough to account for roughly 25pc and 27pc of all US generation in those years, EIA said Tuesday in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The 2025 estimate is less than 1pc lower than the agency's forecast in May, while the 2026 outlook is about 2pc higher. Renewables in 2024 generated almost 948mn MWh, about 23pc of all US generation. EIA attributes the higher share from renewables to projects coming on line through the end of 2026. The agency expects developers to add about 32,500MW of utility-scale solar to the grid this year, which would surpass the record high of 30,000MW in 2024. EIA anticipates about 7,700MW of new capacity from the wind sector this year. Wind capacity in 2024 expanded by about 5,100MW, its lowest showing since 2014. The month-over-month change in the larger renewables outlook corresponds with higher expectations for wind and solar generation next year. Wind farms are now on track to provide about 506mn MWh in 2026, while utility-scale solar farms will generate around 350mn MWh, each about 2pc higher from May's outlook. If the solar projection bears out, it would surpass hydropower in 2025 as the second most prevalent form of renewable generation in the US. In the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) territory, EIA expects non-hydropower renewable generators are on pace to supply nearly 179mn MWh in 2025, down by less than 1pc from last month's outlook. But the 216mn MWh now anticipated from the sector in 2026 marks an almost 10pc increase from May's predictions for the Texas grid. EIA's lowered its predictions for non-hydropower renewables in the New York Independent System Operator's footprint by less than 1pc for 2025 and by 4pc for 2026, to 11.5mn MWh and just under 13mn MWh, respectively. Revisions to other regional forecasts were minimal. EIA increased its expectations for non-hydropower renewables in the areas managed by the PJM Interconnection, ISO-New England and Midcontinent Independent System Operator by less than 1pc for both 2025 and 2026. Renewable energy resources for EIA's purposes include conventional hydropower, wind, solar projects larger than 1MW, geothermal and certain forms of biomass. By Patrick Zemanek Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Lighter crude slates cut US Gulf HS coke supply

25/06/11

Lighter crude slates cut US Gulf HS coke supply

Houston, 11 June (Argus) — US Gulf coast high-sulphur fuel-grade petroleum coke spot availability has tightened in recent weeks as sulphur content and overall coke output have dipped because of lighter crude slates. US Gulf coke production is down by 15-25pc on account of refineries using lighter crudes, according to multiple sources. "Overall spot availability of cargoes from US refineries is low," one trader said. At least three or four refiners in both Texas and Louisiana that would typically produce 6.5pc sulphur fuel-grade coke have been producing closer to 5pc sulphur or less because lighter crudes tend to be sweeter, specifically cutting high-sulphur availability. US Gulf sour crude prices have risen so far in June because of low supply, a halt to Chevron's Venezuelan crude imports and concerns surrounding Canadian wildfires . July Mars was at about a $1.40/bl premium to US benchmark WTI at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma last week, about 30¢/bl higher than a week earlier and $1/bl firmer than at the start of the trade month, encouraging refiners to buy more light, sweet domestic crudes. Sour crudes tend to be heavier and contain more of the Conradson carbon that makes up petroleum coke. "WTI is pretty cheap right now," a second trader said. "Many refineries are using that, and it's a lighter crude." The threat of high US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude imports earlier in the year may have also encouraged refiners to switch away from these crudes, which make higher volumes of 6.5pc sulphur coke. Refiners may be taking more Latin American crudes, which tend to produce lower sulphur content coke. Colombian Castilla Blend and Vasconia have climbed by $3-$4/bl against WTI this year because of higher demand, and Colombia's crude exports to the US reached a five-month high in April, according to Kpler data. US Gulf coast asphalt prices have also been higher than coker yields in recent weeks, which may be contributing to lower coke production. Asphalt production has declined because of a narrow light-heavy crude spread, partly caused by the limited sour crude availability, and refinery outages in the first quarter. Coker yields have been below asphalt values for 10 consecutive weeks, with the Argus -calculated coker yield holding a $14.50/short tonne discount to Gulf asphalt on 6 June. Traders seeking replacement high-sulphur supply could be further tightening the fob US Gulf spot market. Traders receiving mid-sulphur under high-sulphur contracts are looking to sell that supply into the mid-sulphur market at a higher return, rather than use it to fulfil contractual obligations for high-sulphur coke. "If I expected to get 6pc and I get 4.5pc, I'm going to go into the market and buy 6pc," another trader said. This may explain why some recent refiner sales have gone at significantly higher levels than netback prices from traders selling contracted supply into delivered markets. Although there are not a lot of downstream buyers seeking fob-basis cargoes, traders are needing to cover short positions, while there are "not a lot of refinery tonnes out there", a fourth trader said. "We are not able to find any spot cargo from refineries," the first trader said, which is supporting prices "even though demand is not great." But the tighter availability from refiners is not causing prices to rise, as there is still a lot of contracted volume in traders' hands, and demand has been relatively weak. Traders still have a lot of volume to move in July and August, a fifth trader said. Another factor is higher supply from refiners outside the US Gulf: Spanish refiner Repsol has begun producing high-sulphur coke at one of its refineries , and there is also new high-sulphur supply from Mexico . Weak demand for high-sulphur coke from buyers in India, China and Turkey, where coal has been competitive, still pushed the fob US Gulf 6.5pc sulphur coke price down by 50¢/t last week. The spread between mid- and high-sulphur has also been narrowing because of the tightness in high-sulphur combined with greater mid-sulphur availability. The 4.5pc sulphur US Gulf price's premium to 6.5pc sulphur has held at $4.50-$5/t over the past three assessment weeks, down from $11/t on the week of 15 April and the lowest since early February. By Lauren Masterson and Hadley Medlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EQT signs 10-year gas deals with Duke, Southern

25/06/11

EQT signs 10-year gas deals with Duke, Southern

New York, 11 June (Argus) — US natural gas producer EQT has signed 10-year firm supply deals with US utilities Duke Energy and Southern Company for a combined 1.2 Bcf/d of gas beginning in 2027. EQT previously disclosed it struck deals to sell 800mn cf/d and 400mn cf/d of gas to "investment-grade utilities" in the southeastern US, but it has not disclosed the buyers. Those previously unnamed utilities are North Carolina-based Duke, which has contracted for 800mn cf/d from EQT, and Georgia-based Southern, which has contracted for 400mn cf/d, according to people with knowledge of the matter. EQT declined to comment for this story. Duke and Southern did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The deals represent about 20pc of EQT's production and allow EQT to take advantage of contracted capacity it holds on Mountain Valley Pipeline, which ferries gas from West Virginia to Virginia. EQT, the second-largest US gas producer by volume, has been the owner of Mountain Valley Pipeline since acquiring its previous owner Equitrans Midstream in July 2024. The gas supply deals are "two of the largest long-term physical supply deals ever executed in the North American natural gas market," EQT chief executive Toby Rice said in October 2023. The deals also underpin EQT's broader strategy of trying to sell more gas directly to large end users, including utilities, LNG export terminals and data centers, instead of selling into the volatile US spot gas market with the use of financial hedges. The deals also give EQT more exposure to pricing hubs in the southeastern US, where gas trades at a premium to gas sold within the Appalachian production region, where EQT operates. For Duke and Southern, the long-term agreements guarantee available gas supply as the utilities convert coal-fired power generation facilities to gas-fired generators while scrambling to meet surging power demand from planned data centers running artificial intelligence software. Those drivers of gas demand are also behind US pipeline companies Williams, Kinder Morgan and Boardwalk Pipeline Partners trying to build out more gas transportation capacity into the southeast, FactSet manager of natural gas research Connor McLean told Argus . Duke Energy plans to add 5GW of new gas-fired power generation through 2029 across its territory, the company said earlier this month. Duke Energy Carolinas and Southern Company hold most of the contracted capacity on Williams' planned 1.6 Bcf/d Southeast Supply Enhancement expansion of its Transcontinental (Transco) pipeline, which is expected to enter service in the fourth quarter of 2027, US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission filings show. That expansion project will make available new gas transportation capacity from the terminus of the Mountain Valley Pipeline in Virginia to end markets in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Duke Energy Carolinas, whose service territory includes North Carolina and South Carolina, holds 1 Bcf/d of contracted capacity on Southeast Supply Enhancement. Southern Company, whose service territory includes Georgia and Alabama, holds 400mn cf/d. By selling into those regions, EQT will be taking 1.2 Bcf/d of gas it was previously selling into the comparatively low-priced Tetco M-2 market and selling it instead into the higher priced Transco zone 4 and 5 South markets. The spot price for gas in the Transco zone 5 South region — which covers gas downstream from compressor station 165 near the terminus of Mountain Valley Pipeline in Virginia to the Georgia-South Carolina border — in 2024 averaged $2.69/mmBtu, and the Transco zone 4 index — spanning Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi — averaged $2.41/mmBtu. The Tetco M-2 receipts index over the period averaged $1.67/mmBtu. The supply deals with Duke and Southern are "the main driver" behind EQT's anticipated corporate gas price differential — or the average price at which it sells its gas relative to the US benchmark price — tightening to around 30¢/mmBtu in 2028 from an anticipated 60¢/mmBtu this year, EQT's Rice said in April. EQT is also in talks with a dozen proposed power projects in the Appalachian production region, he said. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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