Only 10 of the 22 new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — climate plans — submitted so far have reaffirmed commitments relating to phasing down coal power or transitioning away from fossil fuels, think-tank E3G said today.
These mostly fall short of the goal of the Paris Agreement, it said, and it called on UN Cop 30 climate summit host Brazil to turn "signal into substance".
NDCs from Japan, Singapore and Moldova mention the priorities of phasing down coal and transitioning away from fossil fuels, two key outcomes under the UN climate body UNFCCC's first global stocktake (GST) agreed at Cop 28 in Dubai. The GST, an assessment of climate action progress under the Paris Agreement, included an historic call to transition away from fossil fuels. But very little progress has been made on its implementation so far.
The UAE in its new NDC stipulates that it "integrates the outcomes of the GST", while the Maldives and Moldova, which are heavily reliant on energy imports, have goals to reduce dependency on fossil fuel imports, citing energy security reasons, according to E3G.
The think tank noted that 11 countries that have submitted plans are part of coalitions aiming at phasing out fossil fuels. But none "have introduced country-wide moratoriums on fossil fuel exploration and drilling," E3G said. Canada and Mexico have partial bans, while the UK has announced bans on new drilling licenses in the North Sea, it said, but most countries do not explicitly pledge to divest from fossil fuel assets in their new NDC.
Except for the UK, major emitters' NDCs and implementation fall short of what is needed to keep global warming within "safe limits".
"With the September NDC deadline fast approaching, Brazil has a critical chance to turn that signal into substance," and rally countries to submit climate plans with credible strategies to move beyond fossil fuels, E3G said. Looking at Brazil, which is hosting Cop 30 in Belem in November, E3G said the country has pledged that "in the medium and long term, it will seek to gradually replace the use of fossil fuels with electrification solutions and advanced biofuels." But Brasilia is looking to develop its oil and gas, including in the environmentally sensitive equatorial margin. It will offer 332 oil and gas blocks in an auction this week — the first since December 2023 — including 47 in the equatorial margin's Foz do Amazonas basin.
A separate report today from civil society organisation Oil Change International noted that Brazil "is among the 10 largest expanders of oil and gas to 2035." The country's plans to ramp up oil and gas output "sets a detrimental example", Oil Change said. But Brazil "exemplifies the difficulties that emerging economies with oil and gas reserves face when trying to balance poverty eradication, industrialisation and climate goals", it added.
The US is set to account for 58pc of carbon emissions from new oil and gas fields over 2025-35 — around 16pc of the remaining carbon budget — while Brazil's projected share of carbon emissions is 1.4pc, Oil Change found.
Oil Change put the global cumulative CO2 emissions from projected new oil and gas extraction at just under 46bn t. The carbon budget refers to a limit on CO2 emissions, in order to keep the global rise in temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as sought by the Paris agreement.
The reports were released to coincide with the beginning of the "halfway point" climate talks, hosted by the UNFCCC in Bonn, Germany. These technical negotiations are scheduled for 16-26 June.
