Trump talk of Iran attacks spreads market risks

: Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
25/06/18

The prospect of wider escalation in the Middle East if the US joins Israel's attacks on Iran is affecting marine insurance, freight and middle distillate prices, even though the flow of energy commodities out of the Mideast Gulf so far remains unfettered.

US president Donald Trump's repeated hints at a potential US role in Israel's bombing campaign against Iran prompted Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to warn of "irreparable damage" to the US if it joins the attacks.

Trump in remarks to reporters at the White House today said he presented an "ultimate ultimatum" to Tehran and said of a potential US air raid on Iran, "I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do."

Khamenei in a televised address today denounced Trump's "absurd, unacceptable rhetoric to openly demand that the Iranian people surrender to him." Iran will oppose any "imposed peace", Khamenei said.

"The harm the US will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily," Khamenei said.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is causing a surge in Europe-bound freight rates for medium range tankers loading in the US Gulf coast. Mideast Gulf middle distillate premiums are at multi-month highs. Additional War Risk Premiums (AWRP) in the Mideast Gulf could rise sharply in the coming days as the number of insurance underwriters willing to commit at current levels appears to be shrinking.

Some LNG carriers that have held off from transiting the strait of Hormuz in recent days have since sailed through or have approached the strait, while no carriers loaded in the Mideast Gulf have slowed from sailing via the strait.

Few barriers to US participation

Domestically and internationally, there is no significant pushback against a potential US involvement.

The isolationist wing of Republican politicians and media figures loyal to Trump are urging him to avoid involvement in an Israel-Iran war.

A group of Democratic senators on Tuesday circulated legislation to require Trump to ask for congressional authorization to use force against Iran, but senate majority leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) would not commit to allowing a vote on the resolution.

"Dismantling Iran's nuclear program is what this is all about," Thune said in a televised interview Tuesday. "It can happen diplomatically, voluntarily, or can happen via force."

There is also no unanimity among the other G7 leaders on the future course of conflict. The group in a statement on 16 June that Trump endorsed called Iran "the principal source of regional instability and terror."

The Pentagon is ready to execute on any order by Trump, US defense secretary Pete Hegseth told a Senate panel today. Hegseth declined to say if Trump made any decision on an attack.

Mixed messages on talks

Trump claimed today that Iran's government has reached out to him for a diplomatic solution and has expressed willingness to send a high ranking official to the White House. The offer is "courageous", Trump said, but added that "I said it's very late to be talking."

Iran's mission to the UN subsequently denied a request for a meeting at the White House.

Trump said today that Russian president Vladimir Putin reached out with an offer to mediate in the Israel-Iran conflict. The conversation took place on 14 June, according to the Kremlin.

"I said, do me a favor, mediate your own," Trump said, referring to Russia's war in Ukraine. "Let's mediate Russia first. Okay?"

By Haik Gugarats

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25/07/12

Trump threatens Mexico, EU with 30pc tariffs

Washington, 12 July (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday said the US will impose 30pc tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and the EU beginning on 1 August. In a move that could significantly disrupt crude, refined product and other commodity flows, Trump made public on his social media platform letters sent to Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Friday threatening the new tariffs. Trump also vowed to raise the tariffs even higher if Mexico or the EU were to retaliate with their own measures. The threats follow similar letters sent to leaders of other countries this past week, including a 35pc tariff on Canadian imports , likewise starting on 1 August, and a 50pc tariff on Brazilian imports . In his letter to Sheinbaum, Trump repeated previous justifications for higher tariffs by pointing to "Mexico's failure to stop the Cartels" smuggling fentanyl into the US. "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done is not enough," Trump wrote. "If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 30pc that we charge," Trump wrote to Sheinbaum. His letter to von der Leyen included similar language. Trump's previous executive orders regarding tariffs on Mexico and Canada carved out exemptions for goods compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. A White House official on Friday, following Trump's 10 July Canadian tariff announcement, said the exemption will remain in place, with a caveat that Trump has yet to determine the final form of application. Regarding the EU, Trump argued the 30pc figure "is far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity we have with the EU". Mexico's ministries of the economy, foreign affairs, finance, security and energy said in a statement Saturday that they met with their US counterparts on Friday to begin negotiations to head off the new tariffs before 1 August. "We stated at the meeting that [the new tariff plan] was unfair treatment and that we disagreed." After receipt of the new tariff letter, von der Leyen said Trump's tariffs "would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic". The US has clinched only one limited trade deal, which keeps in place a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK while granting a lower-tariff import quota for UK-made cars. Trump has announced a deal with Vietnam, setting tariffs at 20pc. By David Ivanovich Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US to loan 1mn bls crude to Louisiana refinery: Update

25/07/11

US to loan 1mn bls crude to Louisiana refinery: Update

Adds details on crude quality issues from Mars pipeline. Washington, 11 July (Argus) — ExxonMobil will borrow up to 1mn bl of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for its 522,500 b/d refinery in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, in response to a disruption to offshore supply of crude for the facility. ExxonMobil warned suppliers last week of "serious quality issues" related to elevated levels of zinc in crude supplied by the Mars pipeline, which brings crude from a series of deepwater fields in the Gulf of Mexico to shore, according to market sources. In letters to suppliers ExxonMobil said the crude quality issues were "... significantly affecting the operations at our Baton Rouge Refinery," and that it would stop accepting Mars crude "... in an effort to avoid further damages." The US Department of Energy said today it had approved the loan to ExxonMobil, called an exchange, to ensure a stable supply of transportation fuels in Louisiana and the US Gulf coast. The agency said the crude loan will support ExxonMobil's "restoration of refinery operations that were reduced due to an offshore supply disruption." Chevron, one of the producers that contributes crude to the Mars pipeline, said it has "identified a potential contributing source to the Mars crude composition changes, which is associated with the start-up of a new well." Chevron said it was working to resolve the matter and does not expect it to affect current production guidance. In April Chevron started production from a new deepwater field , Ballymore, which ties into the Mars system. Shell, which owns a majority stake in the Mars pipeline, did not respond to a request for comment. Mars premium to WTI falls The August Mars premium to Nymex-quality WTI has dropped nearly $1/bl in the last week. The August Argus Mars volume-weighted average assessment on Thursday was a 9¢/bl premium to the Nymex-quality WTI Cushing benchmark, nearly $1/bl lower than a week earlier. Mars averaged a 63¢/bl premium for the August trade month through Thursday, but was at a $1.40-$1.50/bl premium at the start of the trade month. The August trade month started 26 June and ends 25 July. The SPR, which consists of four underground storage sites in Texas and Louisiana, held 403mn bl of crude as of 4 July. Under the exchange announced today ExxonMobil will eventually return the borrowed crude — along with additional crude as payment for the loan — to the SPR. The SPR's Bayou Choctaw site connects to refineries in Baton Rouge through the Capline pipeline. In 2021, the Department of Energy authorized a loan of up to 3mn bl from the SPR to ExxonMobil's refinery in Baton Rouge to address disruptions related to Hurricane Ida. ExxonMobil was initially scheduled to return the crude in 2022, but that deadline has been repeatedly pushed back, most recently to require a return of the crude by March 2026. By Chris Knight, Eunice Bridges and Amanda Smith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Congress resumes push to cut US shipping pollution

25/07/11

Congress resumes push to cut US shipping pollution

New York, 11 July (Argus) — US lawmakers reintroduced two bills Thursday to slash greenhouse gas emissions from the shipping industry. Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island) and Alex Padilla (D-California), along with US House of Representatives members Doris Matsui (D-California) and Kevin Mullin (D-California), reintroduced the International Maritime Pollution Accountability Act, which would impose pollution fees on large ships calling at US ports. The bill targets vessels over 5,000 gross tonnes with a $150/t fee on carbon, plus fees on nitrogen oxides at $6.30/lb, sulfur dioxide at $18/lb, and fine particulate matter at $38.90/lb. Ship operators would only pay the carbon fee if no equivalent global measure from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is in place. Revenue would go toward modernizing the Jones Act fleet with low-emission ships, electrifying shipbuilding, and addressing pollution at US ports. The group also reintroduced the Clean Shipping Act of 2025, led in the House by Representatives Robert Garcia (D-California). It directs the Environmental Protection Agency to impose carbon intensity standards for marine fuels, targeting 30pc lifecycle CO2-equivalent emissions reduction from 2030, 58pc from 2034, 83pc from 2040, and 100pc from 2050. It also requires all ships at berth or anchor in US ports to emit zero emissions by 2035. The lawmakers say the proposed bills also close a major loophole. Marine shipping is largely exempt from fuel taxes unlike other transport sectors. They say the plan will also support US manufacturing and help reduce the US trade deficit. The International Maritime Pollution Accountability Act is endorsed by environmental and advocacy groups including Friends of the Earth, Sierra Club and Ocean Conservancy, among others. The original bills were introduced in 2023 and expired without being enacted. The bills follow the IMO's decision in April to adopt a net-zero framework and a global carbon price proposal for shipping. The US delegation was absent from IMO's April meeting, issuing a statement that "President Trump has made it clear that the US will not accept any international environmental agreement that unduly or unfairly burdens the US or the interests of the American people ." By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil advances oil, gas decarbonization strategy

25/07/11

Brazil advances oil, gas decarbonization strategy

Sao Paulo, 11 July (Argus) — Brazil is implementing a roadmap to increase crude output without boosting net emissions from the sector, a key argument for its claim to leadership on climate issues ahead of the Cop 30 UN summit. Although Brazil does not plan to phase out fossil fuel use, it is working to reach net zero emissions by 2050, and slashing greenhouse gases from its hydrocarbons production is part of this strategy. Brazil's oil industry already has a carbon footprint at 14.88kg CO2 equivalent (C02e)/bl of oil equivalent (boe), which is well below the global average of 20kg CO2e/boe, according to the hydrocarbons regulator ANP. But with oil and gas production slated to increase steadily over the next decade, Brazil's government and producers are eyeing a range of options to further slash emissions. "Brazil can double oil output without increasing net emissions by employing existing technologies," Heloisa Borges, the director of oil, gas and biofuels at the government energy planning and research agency (Epe) said. As part of these efforts, the government called on Epe, ANP and state-owned company Pre-Sal Petroleo to present a roadmap to decarbonize the sector. The plan presented in late June outlines options including adopting new technologies and expanding existing emissions reductions techniques, such as leak detection and reducing flaring. "Expanding methane capture not only reduces emissions, but it allows companies to use this gas to substitute other fuels, such as diesel in their operations," Borges said. Other fuel substitution operations include using natural gas as fuel for drilling rigs and electrification of production operations, the study said. State-controlled Petrobras is already advancing its decarbonization strategy. The company's most recent five-year plan earmarks R5.3bn ($950mn) for emissions reductions in its operations as well as $1bn for research and development of new technologies. Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is a key element, according to Lilian Melo, executive director of the Petrobras' research, development and innovation center Cenpes. The company uses high-pressure separation technology to remove CO2 from oil at the mouth of a reservoir and inject it back into the reservoir after the fluids are separated. This technology significantly reduces emissions, especially because crude produced from pre-salt blocks has high CO2 content, Melo said. The CCUS is used on 23 of Petrobras' offshore platforms in the pre-salt. Petrobras is also working to expand electrification of its on and offshore platforms. Power generation is responsible for 65pc of Petrobras' production-related emissions, according to Melo. The company announced this week a contract with Hitachi Energy to assess electrification of its offshore oil operations. Catch and keep Other oil producers are working to reduce the carbon footprint of their operations, including Eneva, which is also weighing investments in carbon capture and storage. The company is conducting a preliminary study to assess the technical viability of injecting CO2 into fields in the Parnaiba basin in Maranhao state. The Gaviao Real field has been operating for more than 10 years and is expected to become depleted in coming years, when it could potentially be converted to store CO2. Eneva is also weighing investments in carbon storage in the Parana basin, where the company has four exploratory blocks. Preliminary seismic data indicates that these blocks also have salt caverns and the company believes that there is significant potential to offer carbon storage to ethanol mills in areas adjacent to the blocks. Despite Brazil's ambitious emissions reduction plan, it has no intention of pulling back on exploration and production. With few exceptions, the Brazilian government is aligned on developing oil and gas reserves to boost economic growth and energy security and holds that the aim does not hurt its role in climate leadership. Brazil's energy sector GHG emissions mn t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Saudi Arabia leads June Opec+ production increase

25/07/11

Saudi Arabia leads June Opec+ production increase

Singapore, 11 July (Argus) — Saudi Arabia drove a substantial increase in Opec+ production last month in a bid to mitigate potential supply disruptions stemming from the 12-day Israel-Iran war. Opec+ crude production rose by 830,000 b/d to 35.1mn b/d in June, according to Argus estimates, 290,000 b/d above its collective target for the month (see tables). Saudi Arabia accounted for most of this, boosting output by 600,000 b/d to 9.75mn b/d — 380,000 b/d above its required production of 9.37mn b/d for the month, as published by the Opec secretariat. Saudi production is normally in line with its Opec+ targets. But fears that the Israel-Iran conflict could cause regional production shutdowns and disrupt exports through the strait of Hormuz saw Saudi Arabia substantially increase output as a contingency measure, sources familiar with the numbers told Argus. Most of the additional output went into domestic storage and some was moved on to ships or storage tanks outside the Mideast Gulf, the sources said, stressing that it did not enter the market. Some output was also rerouted through the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's supply to market — or physical sales — in June was 9.35mn b/d, the sources said, adding that the country's Opec+ commitments are based on its supply to market and not production. This would imply that Saudi Arabia was in line with its Opec+ target in June. Argus' monthly estimates are based on wellhead production. Saudi oil facilities were targeted in a missile attack in 2019 that temporarily shut in 5.5mn b/d of crude output. And Iran has long threatened to shut the strait of Hormuz — through which around 17mn b/d of Mideast Gulf crude and refined products is exported — if attacked. Regional oil production and oil exports through the strait were not affected during the Israel-Iran conflict during 13-24 June. China allocations rise Saudi Arabia's share of the Chinese crude market is increasing thanks to higher output and attractive term formula prices in recent months, with the August-loading allocation to China hitting a two-year high. Refiners in China are set to receive a collective 1.65mn b/d of August-loading Saudi crude, according to market sources. This is 130,000 b/d higher than their July allocations and appears to be the largest amount since September 2023, Argus estimates. The increase was driven by a higher allocation granted to one state-owned refiner, with other Chinese customers' allocations unchanged on the month. Aramco lifted its August formula prices to Asia-Pacific by 90¢-$1.30/bl from July, higher than expectations of a 50-80¢/bl rise based on the wider backwardation — prompt premiums to forward values — in Mideast Gulf benchmark Dubai crude last month. Most Saudi term grades still represented good value on a delivered China basis next to spot medium sweet crudes from the Atlantic basin despite the price hikes, participants in China said. This together with strong seasonal demand may have prompted refiners to keep their term nominations high. Buying interest in Saudi crude was strong elsewhere as well. One northeast Asian refiner said it had asked for and will receive slightly above its usual amount. Other refiners based in Asia-Pacific said they requested and will receive their usual volumes of August-loading Saudi term crude. Requests from European buyers were not significantly higher than usual, traders said. Two European refiners told Argus that they nominated and received their full contractual volumes for August. And demand from other refiners may also have been steady because of firm refining margins and summer demand. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Opec 9 22.20 21.46 21.96 +0.24 Non-Opec 9 12.90 12.81 12.86 +0.04 Total Opec+ 18 35.10 34.27 34.81 +0.29 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Opec wellhead production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Saudi Arabia** 9.75 9.15 9.37 +0.38 Iraq 3.96 3.94 4.09 -0.13 Kuwait 2.43 2.43 2.47 -0.04 UAE 3.04 2.94 3.09 -0.05 Algeria 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.00 Nigeria 1.55 1.53 1.50 +0.05 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.25 0.27 0.28 -0.03 Gabon 0.24 0.22 0.17 +0.07 Equatorial Guinea 0.05 0.06 0.07 -0.02 Opec 9 22.20 21.46 21.96 +0.24 Iran 3.37 3.42 na na Libya 1.34 1.37 na na Venezuela 0.96 0.98 na na Total Opec 12^ 27.87 27.23 na na *revised ** Saudi Arabia's supply to market in June was 9.35mn b/d †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Russia 9.02 8.98 9.16 -0.14 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.78 -0.02 Azerbaijan 0.46 0.47 0.55 -0.09 Kazakhstan 1.84 1.80 1.50 +0.34 Malaysia 0.37 0.37 0.40 -0.03 Bahrain 0.17 0.17 0.20 -0.03 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.17 0.15 0.12 +0.05 Total non-Opec 12.90 12.81 12.86 0.04 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump talk of Iran attacks spreads market risks

Few barriers to US participation

Mixed messages on talks

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Trump threatens Mexico, EU with 30pc tariffs

Trump threatens Mexico, EU with 30pc tariffs

US to loan 1mn bls crude to Louisiana refinery: Update

US to loan 1mn bls crude to Louisiana refinery: Update

Congress resumes push to cut US shipping pollution

Congress resumes push to cut US shipping pollution

Brazil advances oil, gas decarbonization strategy

Brazil advances oil, gas decarbonization strategy

Saudi Arabia leads June Opec+ production increase

Saudi Arabia leads June Opec+ production increase

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