Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US

: Agriculture, Biofuels, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Oil products
25/07/10

Brazil will consider reciprocal tariffs if US president Donald Trump goes ahead with his threat of a 50pc charge on imports from Brazil, its president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said.

"Any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's economic reciprocity law," Lula posted on social media late on Wednesday.

He defended Brazil's sovereignty and said the country "will not accept any form of tutelage".

He rebutted Trump's claim that the US has a "very unfair trade relationship with Brazil", pointing to its long-running trade surplus.

The US is Brazil's second-largest trading partner behind China, receiving $40.3bn worth of exports in 2024, according to the Brazilian secretary of foreign trade.

It is the main market for Brazilian manufactured goods.

The national confederation of industries (CNI), a lobby group, called for negotiations with the Trump government "to preserve the countries' historical trade relationship". A group representing the powerful agribusiness lobby in congress, FPA, also called for diplomatic negotiations.

A letter that Trump sent on Wednesday to Lula is one of the 22 that the US leader has sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will charge on imports from those countries.

By Constance Malleret

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25/12/09

Brazil steel quotas fill ahead of AD ruling

Sao Paulo, 9 December (Argus) — Brazilian importers moved quickly to secure most quota allocations for cold-rolled coil (CRC) and coated steel ahead of upcoming anti-dumping rulings. The CRC probe has exceeded its expected deadline and could conclude before year-end, while the coated steel case is scheduled for 12 January. Duties on targeted products are likely to exceed $200/metric tonne (t), market participants said, citing previous anti-dumping decisions in Brazil. Importers can still benefit from the quota system, which is less restrictive than the potential anti-dumping tariffs. Importers can bring in up to 93,478t of CRC and 293,239t of coated steel under lower tariffs within the 10-12pc range. Volumes exceeding this threshold are subjected to 25pc tariffs. Buyers claimed 21,600t of CRC in 19 November-2 December, up from 7,000t bought from 5-19 November. The coated steel 293,239t quota allocation has been 75pc filled in the first six weeks of quota renewal. Quota volumes reset every four months, reducing import costs on 19 steel products. Each company is allocated a volume based on its import history. Once that limit is reached, buyers have two options: pay a 25pc tariff or wait for the next quota period, which begins on 24 February. Buyers filled 294,985t of the 497,130t total quota for the four-month period ending 23 February. Nearly 60pc of the allocation has been filled in just six weeks since volumes reset. By Isabel Filgueiras Brazil steel import quotas metric tonnes Product Full Quota Consumed by 2-Dec Difference from 19-Nov Balance by 2-Dec Share consumed (%) Hot-rolled HRC, ≥600mm wide, 4.75–10mm thick 1,285 157 0 1,128 12.2 HRC, ≥600mm wide, 3-4.75mm thick 3,111 57 57 3,054 1.8 HRC, ≥600mm wide, ≤3mm thick, ≥275 MPa 9,520 2,967 2,832 0 31.2 HRC, ≥600mm wide, ≤3mm thick 23,490 4,799 2,239 18,691 20.4 HRC, ≥600mm wide 9,798 2,512 1,359 7,286 25.6 Flat-rolled, ≥600mm wide 468 96 0 372 20.6 Cold rolled CRC, ≥600mm wide, 1-3mm thick 47,950 31,613 11,847 16,337 65.9 CRC, ≥600mm wide, 0.5-1mm thick 36,255 22,869 5,680 13,386 63.1 CRC, ≥600mm wide 9,273 6,311 4,088 2,962 68.1 Galvanized HDG, ≥600mm wide, <4.75mm 144,286 98,198 12,318 46,088 68.1 GL, ≥600mm wide 147,038 110,154 -122 36,884 74.9 HDG, ≥600mm wide 1,915 946 208 969 49.4 Wire rod Wire rod, circular section <14mm dia 32,535 4,770 133 27,765 14.7 Tubes Seamless tubes ( oil, gas industry) 6,295 2,480 591 3,815 39.4 Submerged arc welding steel pipes, >406.4mm OD 490 16 16 474 3.4 Welded circular steel pipes, >406.4mm OD 420 34 0 386 8.1 Welded circular (oil, gas industry) 1,679 387 20 1,292 23.0 Beams I-beam, ≥80mm 17,121 5,300 335 11,821 31.0 H-beam, ≥80mm 4,201 1,319 0 2,882 31.4 Source: Siscomex Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico inflation accelerates to 3.8pc in November

25/12/09

Mexico inflation accelerates to 3.8pc in November

Mexico City, 9 December (Argus) — Mexico's inflation quickened to an annual 3.8pc in November, driven by acceleration in fruit and vegetable prices and rising core inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated from 3.57pc in October, statistics agency Inegi said Tuesday, after accelerating to 3.76pc in September from 3.51pc in July, which was the lowest annual headline inflation rate since December 2020. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, sped up to 4.43pc from 4.28pc in October. This marked a seventh month above the 4pc level — the high-end of the central bank's target inflation range. Within core, consumer goods inflation accelerated to 4.37pc in November from 4.12pc in October, while services quickened to 4.49pc in November from 4.44pc in the previous month. The three largest contributors to CPI in November, as weighted by Inegi, were electricity rates, with the end of seasonal subsidies, fares for secondary public transportation and tomato prices. Non-core inflation accelerated in November to 1.73pc from 1.18pc in October. Agriculture prices, particularly fruit and vegetable prices, have been slowed this year by favorable climate conditions. But a change is emerging. And while annual inflation for fruit and vegetables contracted 7.79pc in November, this compares to the 10.27pc annual contraction the previous month. The segment has seen rising inflationary pressure, noted Banorte, driven by extreme rainfall in several states in October and nationwide roadblocks in November organized by freight truck associations. Energy prices slowed to 0.54pc from 1.07pc in October, with Banorte noting "remarkable stability" in the segment for most of 2025, "aided by government actions and favorable international benchmarks. However, the latter have been mixed recently, with improvements for gasoline but higher prices in both natural and LP gas." November headline and core inflation surprised to the high side, surpassing forecasts of 3.76pc for the headline print and 4.36pc for core at Banorte. Banorte noted the latest data positions headline and core inflation to be above the central bank's year-end forecasts of 3.5pc and 4.1pc, respectively. However, Banorte expects the central bank to issue an additional quarter-point rate cut to its target interest rate to 7.00pc from 7.25pc, when it meets 18 December — citing dovish remarks in the central bank's quarterly presentation. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trans Mountain exports rise to record in November

25/12/09

Trans Mountain exports rise to record in November

Houston, 9 December (Argus) — Exports of Canadian heavy crude from Vancouver, British Colombia, increased in November to an all-time high because of rising Canadian production and favorable pipeline arbitrage economics. Total waterborne exports out of the 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain pipeline system averaged 547,000 b/d in November, eclipsing the prior record of 528,000 b/d in March, according to Kpler and Vessel Tracker data. Heavy crude loadings accounted for 522,000 b/d of November's total, surpassing the previous record of 442,000 b/d in October. The remaining 5pc of exports were synthetic and light Canadian crudes. November-loading supply of Canadian crude received support from peaking seasonal production in Canada during the colder months, and an open shipping arbitrage from Edmonton, Alberta, to the Westridge terminal in British Colombia. Canadian crude and condensate production is forecast to average a record 4.87mn b/d in the fourth quarter, according to Argus Consulting, a division of Argus Media. Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge rejected 4pc of November heavy crude nominations and 6pc of light nominations on its 3.1mn b/d Mainline due to strong US demand for Canadian crude. In September, when most November cargoes would have changed hands, prompt CMA WTI Nymex traded on average at a 79¢/bl premium to March CMA Nymex futures. The backwardated market pushed the growing volume of Canadian production to the Trans Mountain system for export, rather than into storage. Western Canadian Select at Hardisty, Alberta, traded for the November trade month on average at an $8.10/bl discount to November nomination low-TAN Cold Lake fob Vancouver, according to Argus pricing, indicating that sending cargoes to Westridge was lucrative for shippers with the longest and largest volume commitments on Trans Mountain. The tolls for committed shippers to send heavy crude on the Trans Mountain line range from $7.71-9.11/bl, depending on the length and size of shippers' commitments. But the arbitrage may be less important when the Mainline is fully apportioned, with market participants in a backwardated market more focused on getting barrels exported, rather than using the most profitable export route. China was the largest destination for Trans Mountain cargoes in November, all of which were heavy sour cargoes and most high-TAN, with loadings rising by 15pc to a record 442,000 b/d. Chinese demand for November-loading heavy Canadian crude was strong because it was one of the most competitively priced options into China for the cycle, market sources said. The remaining 106,000 b/d headed to the US west coast, including all the waterborne synthetic and light crudes and four Cold Lake shipments. Phillips 66 ceased crude processing at its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery in October, pressuring demand for Canadian crude in the US west coast. The refinery imported 12 cargoes of Canadian crude over January-September this year, according to EIA data. By John Cordner Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ExxonMobil expects to double Permian output by 2030

25/12/09

ExxonMobil expects to double Permian output by 2030

New York, 9 December (Argus) — ExxonMobil expects to double production from the prolific Permian basin by the end of the decade on the back of technology improvements and efficiency gains. The US major's output from the region is likely to advance to around 2.5mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) over that timeframe from 2024 levels. That would also represent an increase of 200,000 boe/d from what the company expected a year ago. ExxonMobil is counting on the Permian for growth well into the next decade. The company aims to double recovery rates from the region, using new technology such as a patented lightweight proppant to squeeze more resource out of the basin. It has also upped expected cost savings from last year's acquisition of shale giant Pioneer Natural Resources. Booming Permian output — as well as contributions from other so-called advantaged assets such as Guyana and LNG — are helping the company to increase anticipated earnings and cash flow to 2030. ExxonMobil now expects to achieve $25bn in earnings growth and $35bn in cash flow growth by 2030 compared with 2024, an increase of $5bn for both metrics at constant prices, without any increase in capital spending. "We are more profitable than we were five years ago, and we expect that to continue as the advantages we've unlocked position us for even greater opportunities in the years ahead," chief executive officer Darren Woods said in prepared remarks ahead of a presentation. The major said it is on track to buy back $20bn of shares this year, and plans to maintain that pace through 2026 assuming reasonable market conditions. Total production is seen increasing to 5.5mn boe/d by 2030, with the company's advantaged assets accounting for 65pc of that boost. ExxonMobil lifted a target for structural cost savings by $2bn to $20bn by 2030 compared with 2019 levels. Capital spending for next year was pegged in a range of $27bn-$29bn, with overall production reaching around 4.9mn boe/d. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ boosts production in November

25/12/09

Opec+ boosts production in November

London, 9 December (Argus) — The eight core members of Opec+ that are unwinding production cuts increased crude output by 160,000 b/d in November, Argus estimates. The rise means the eight have increased output by 2.25mn b/d since they started unwinding production cuts on a monthly basis in April 2025. But the eight's combined production in November, of 33.15mn b/d, was 90,000 b/d below their collective target for the month. This was largely due to compensation requirements and upstream limitations in some members. The same producers are scheduled for another increase in December, when their collective targets rise by 137,000 b/d. After this, the group has agreed to pause output rises between January and March to account for a seasonal drop in demand. The eight still have 1.24mn b/d of voluntary cuts left to unwind. The wider Opec+ group, which includes 18 members with output targets, increased production by 90,000 b/d to 36.25mn b/d in November. The largest increase came from Kazakhstan, which boosted output by 50,000 b/d to 1.73mn b/d on higher production from its Tengiz oil field — 170,000 b/d above its target for the month. Kazakhstan remains the alliance's biggest overproducer and is yet to deliver on its pledges to compensate for past overproduction . In contrast, Iraq continued to deliver on its compensation requirements. Its November output fell by 20,000 b/d to 4.09mn b/d — some 170,000 b/d below its target for the month. Saudi Arabia and the UAE each increased their production by 40,000 b/d. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production mn b/d Nov Oct* Nov target† Difference to target Opec 9 23.03 23.05 23.28 -0.25 Non-Opec 9 13.22 13.11 13.32 -0.10 Total Opec 18 36.25 36.16 36.60 -0.35 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Opec wellhead production mn b/d Nov Oct* Nov target† Difference to target Saudi Arabia 10.05 10.01 10.06 -0.01 Iraq 4.09 4.11 4.26 -0.17 Kuwait 2.56 2.57 2.57 -0.01 UAE 3.40 3.36 3.40 0.00 Algeria 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.01 Nigeria 1.48 1.52 1.50 -0.02 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.24 0.26 0.28 -0.04 Gabon 0.20 0.21 0.18 0.02 Equatorial Guinea 0.03 0.04 0.07 -0.04 Opec 9 23.03 23.05 23.28 -0.25 Iran 3.34 3.39 na na Libya 1.32 1.32 na na Venezuela 1.00 1.00 na na Total Opec 12^ 28.69 28.76 na na *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Nov Oct* Nov target† Difference to target Russia 9.43 9.41 9.53 -0.10 Oman 0.82 0.79 0.81 0.01 Azerbaijan 0.44 0.44 0.55 -0.11 Kazakhstan 1.73 1.68 1.56 0.17 Malaysia 0.37 0.35 0.40 -0.03 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.14 0.15 0.12 0.02 Total non-Opec 13.22 13.11 13.32 -0.10 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US

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