New regulations for heavy-duty vehicles are accelerating the transition to alternative fuels in Germany and will significantly reduce the fuel demand of the country's logistics industry. Decarbonisation is also taking hold on its waterways.
Heavy-duty transport on roads and rivers has traditionally been a major section of demand for fuels in Europe, particularly for diesel. In Germany, freight transport accounted for almost 28pc of total road fuel consumption in 2023, according to data from the transport ministry (BMV).
Commercial vehicles also cause about a third of greenhouse gas emissions on German roads, according to the economic co-operation and development ministry. And because long-distance road freight transport runs almost exclusively on diesel, the government has introduced incentives for decarbonisation in this area in recent years through regulatory changes such as the CO2 toll. The government's 2030 climate protection programme defines the goal of electrifying one third of German truck mileage by 2030. And tightened EU fleet limits for heavy-duty vehicles are putting pressure on manufacturers to drive innovation in this direction.
These incentives are now having an effect — vehicle manufacturers have significantly expanded their product ranges of heavy-duty vehicles with alternative fuels, and logistics companies are increasingly converting their fleets.
In a report on the market development of climate-friendly technologies in heavy duty road transport — prepared by NOW on behalf of BMV in November 2024 — manufacturers forecast that around 75pc of newly-registered heavy commercial vehicles in Germany will be emission-free or low-emission by 2030. This trend will accelerate.
For manufacturers, electrified trucks remain the primary technology for the time being. They are expected to account for 48pc of all new registrations in Germany in 2030, compared with 37pc across Europe. They are complemented by hydrogen combustion engines and, in individual cases, plug-in hybrids or low-emission fuels such as bio-LNG.
While many in the logistics industry are planning towards the EU's general net zero target by 2050, some companies are going far beyond this target. For example, the Reber Group plans to be climate neutral by 2035. It is gradually converting its diesel trucks to alternative fuels such as HVO100, LNG and CNG and has acquired its first e-trucks. HVO100 is described as a viable bridge technology that can be used in existing diesel drives and can reduce CO2 emissions by up to 90pc. In addition, there is a "close co-operation with vehicle manufacturers and OEMs to test new drive technologies," Mirko Kauffeldt, Reber Logistik managing director told Argus. As electric trucks are becoming increasingly more range-rich and the charging infrastructure is growing steadily, this technology will prevail in the long term, Reber said.
But Kauffeldt also identified challenges that are slowing down the decarbonisation of logistics in Germany — in addition to the lacklustre pace in the construction of charging infrastructure and often long delivery times for alternative fuel vehicles, many market participants lack certainty as to which type will lead in the long run. The high acquisition costs of trucks with alternative drives and uncertainties about the feasibility of reselling e-trucks in particular are also slowing down switching. Without subsidies, electric trucks are at least twice as expensive to purchase as diesel. But according to a June 2024 study by the Fraunhofer Institute, market ramp-up and further development of the technology will significantly reduce costs for battery and fuel cell systems for heavy trucks by 2030. The study's authors conclude: "Battery-electric trucks represent the most promising technology with a high degree of safety in order to at least reach the cost level of today's diesel trucks."
"The fact that the EU wants to exempt emission-free trucks from the toll by 2031 is a step in the right direction" [to make e-trucks competitive], Kauffeldt said.
Decarbonisation of inland waterway transport
German inland waterway shipping is also making progress with decarbonisation. But the effect on fuel demand is likely to be rather small compared with decarbonisation of road freight transport.
According to the Federal Association of German Inland Shipping, barges on German waterways mainly come from the Netherlands and Belgium. Polish and Czech operators are also active in the east. These operators do not usually bunker their fuel in Germany.
In addition to the continuous renewal of its inland waterway fleet, Rhenus Logistics has launched a new fleet that "combines an electrified engine with flexibly interchangeable drive types — in this case diesel engines in accordance with the Euro 6 standard, electric batteries and a hydrogen fuel cell", Philip Tomaskowicz, managing director of Rhenus Partnership, told Argus. Additionally, the diesel engines are operated with HVO100.
Reducing emissions is not the only reason for fleet modernisation at Rhenus: "Our industry is facing the tangible effects of climate change as low water," Tomaskowicz said. Accordingly, the new fleet is designed to be operational at water depths as low as 1.2m.
Rhenus cannot predict whether "hydrogen, electric batteries, methanol, ammonia or another system will prevail in the future". Hence the new fleet is an opportunity to test the combination of different fuels in practice. The expansion of supply infrastructure for hydrogen, for example, is necessary to further advance decarbonisation on waterways, in addition to targeted subsidy programmes.
