NWE imports of US LPG hit all-time high

: LPG
25/09/24

Northwest Europe is on course to receive a record 5.69mn t of US LPG in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing all previous years for the same period.

The total marks a sharp increase from 4.66mn t in the same period in 2024 and exceeds the previous high of 5.09mn t in 2022, according to Kpler data. Imports in the third quarter have already reached 1.72mn t, with a few more shipments likely to arrive before the end of September that could push the total to 1.85mn t, keeping on track to break the annual record by year-end.

The surge reflects structural growth in US supply alongside shifting trade dynamics. Disruptions to movement of US product to China, due to the ongoing tariff dispute, has opened the door for Europe to attract more product.

The consequent influx is weighing on northwest European pricing. The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) propane large cargo value averaged below $500/t in the third quarter of 2025, down from around $570/t in the same time a year earlier and well below the above-$800/t reached during 2021–22.

Since 2021 an increase in US cargoes arriving in Europe has capped local premiums, even during the winter heating season. So far in September, the month when buying interest should be picking up, demand in Europe has been erratic. The steady stream of US supply has discouraged spot purchases that could push prices up to seasonal levels. The few public spot enquires in recent days have all been at a discount to cif ARA paper, and were tabled for delivery dates closer to the back-end of Argus' 10-25 day window. This underlines a lack of urgency and suggests an absence of buying competition.

Forward swap cif ARA spreads appear to confirm this, with the October-November contango at just $2/t.

The contrast with Asia-Pacific is striking. China's propane demand remains robust, but recent supply shortfalls from the Middle East have led to US exporters regaining their top supplier position in August. But these eastbound flows have not been enough to offset the sheer scale of arrivals into Europe.

By Efcharis Sgourou

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25/12/16

Viewpoint: European HVO prices unlikely to ease in 2026

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EU to dilute Ice vehicle phase out: German lawmaker

25/12/15

EU to dilute Ice vehicle phase out: German lawmaker

Brussels, 15 December (Argus) — The European Commission is likely this week to dilute its plan to phase out sales of new internal combustion engine (Ice) vehicles by 2035, according to a lawmaker. "The ban on internal combustion engines is history," said Manfred Weber, the chair of parliament's largest centre-right group EPP. He said the commission will present on 16 December an automotive package that "will revise the CO2 standards for cars, reversing the disastrous ban on internal combustion engines". Weber is a member of Germany's CDU/CSU party, as is commission president Ursula von der Leyen. German chancellor Friedrich Merz has called on the EU to allow the sale of vehicles with highly efficient combustion engines, plug-in hybrids and range-extender EVs beyond 2035. This had faced pushback, with more than 150 European e-mobility firms requesting the commission "stand firm" on its 2035 target. An EU official said the target is now likely to be for a 90pc GHG reduction from 2035 for new vehicles. "As it stands the targets for 2030, but also 2035, are not realistic," said Sigrid de Vries, director general of the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA). "Even with a 90pc target [for reducing GHG by 2035], make no mistake, that will be very, very challenging." The European motor industry has already flagged the possibility of huge fines for manufacturers should they fail to meet existing emissions targets, which are for a 15pc reduction by 2029 compared with a 2021 baseline, and a 55pc reduction from the same baseline in 2030-34. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Aramco Jafurah project still in commissioning: Resend

25/12/15

Aramco Jafurah project still in commissioning: Resend

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Supply surplus masks regional market tightness: IEA

25/12/11

Supply surplus masks regional market tightness: IEA

London, 11 December (Argus) — A large global oil surplus is masking regional tightness in crude and products markets, the IEA said today. In its final Oil Market Report (OMR) for 2025, the IEA said oil prices have only fallen modestly despite the large supply overhang because of "diverging dynamics" across crude, NGLs and products in different regions. This disconnect "notably reflects the high share of exports subject to sanctions (15pc of crude and 11pc of products), lengthening of supply routes and a tight refining system," it said. The IEA's global oil supply and demand balances imply a 3mn b/d supply surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, and more than 3.8mn b/d in 2026. While oil on water has been rising and inventories building in China — global observed inventories rose by 1.4mn b/d in October, to a four-year high, and preliminary data show a further increase in November — there has been a notable absence of stock builds in key Atlantic basin pricing hubs, the IEA said, which is supporting prices and keeping crude futures in backwardation. In products markets, refinery outages and a coming EU ban on imports of products derived from Russia crude has led to three-year high refining margins in November, the IEA said. This trend could continue in 2026 given "limited spare refining capacity outside of China." The IEA said NGLs are increasingly comprising a large share of the overall liquids supply surplus, limiting the overhang's effect on crude prices. The IEA upgraded its 2025 consumption growth forecast by 50,000 b/d to 830,000 b/d, based on an improving macroeconomic outlook and subsiding anxieties about trade tariffs. This would bring overall demand in 2025 to 103.92mn b/d. The IEA's first oil demand growth forecast for 2025, made in April 2024, had consumption growing by 1.15mn b/d. The IEA also upgraded its 2026 demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d, which would bring total demand to 104.79mn b/d. The IEA lowered its supply growth projection for 2025 by 100,000 b/d to 3.05mn b/d and for 2026 by 30,000 b/d to 2.45mn b/d. These were mainly because of disruptions to supplies in sanctioned countries such as Russia and Venezuela, the IEA said. This leaves supply forecast at 106.18mn b/d in 2025 and 108.63mn bd in 2026. The IEA said Russia's crude output fell by 210,000 b/d in November to 9mn b/d, which is 500,000 b/d below its Opec+ target for the month. Russia's oil exports fell by about 400,000 b/d in November to 6.9mn b/d, "as buyers assessed the implications and risks associated with more stringent sanctions." Venezuela's crude output fell by 150,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d "as sanctions and rising geopolitical tensions with the US limited the country's ability to market its oil," the IEA said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Saudi Arabia brings giant Jafurah gas project onstream

25/12/03

Saudi Arabia brings giant Jafurah gas project onstream

Dubai, 3 December (Argus) — Saudi state-controlled Aramco has begun production from the first phase of the giant Jafurah natural gas project, the finance ministry said late on Tuesday. In its 2026 budget statement, the finance ministry listed the phase one start-up as one of Saudi Arabia's achievements in 2025. It didn't specify a date, but it is likely to have been in the past few days. It said production began at 450mn ft³/d, which is two and a half times the rate at which Aramco had long projected. With in-place reserves of 229 trillion ft³ (6.87 trillion m³) of raw gas and 75bn bl of condensate, Jafurah is the largest unconventional gas field in the Mideast Gulf and represents a major pillar of Aramco's ambitious gas expansion plans. Aramco has yet to announce the start up. It previously said it expects to lift sales gas output ꟷ or net production ꟷ to 650mn ft³/d by the end of 2026 in phase one. It is unclear if this stronger-than-anticipated start-up rate could translate into a higher end-2026 target. A second phase is scheduled to come on stream in 2027, to lift production to 2bn ft³/d by the end of the decade, Aramco has said. Aramco has an ambitious programme to expand gas production by more than 80pc by the end of the decade, relative to a 2021 baseline of 9.2bn ft³/d. This implies output of at least 14.7bn ft³/d by 2030, with Jafurah delivering more than one-third of the increase. Jafurah will also produce about 420mn ft³/d of ethane and 630,000 b/d of NGLs and condensate as by-products by 2030. The ethane and NGLs will be sent to the Riyas fractionation plant, which is being built as part of the phase two development. The condensate will be sent to the Juaymah terminal, where Aramco is expanding its storage and export facilities. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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