Private-sector analysts raised Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast for a fourth consecutive month in the central bank's September survey, while still signaling slow growth this year into next.
The median 2025 growth estimate rose to 0.5pc in the September survey from 0.4pc the previous month, still edging higher from the 0.18pc low forecast in May. Still, the 2026 forecast decreased to annual growth of 1.35pc from 1.4pc, the sixth reduction in the projection in the last seven months.
The 2025 formal job creation forecast fell sharply to 232,000 jobs from 1.21mn in August, after social security agency IMSS clarified that only 130,000 of the 1.3mn positions posted in July were new jobs, with the rest being existing positions reclassified under new labor reforms to include digital platform workers. For 2026, analysts now expect 341,000 new jobs, down from 387,000.
Foreign trade remained the top risk to near-term GDP growth in the September survey, just ahead of public safety concerns. Rule of law, market uncertainty and stagnation tied for third place.
Inflation expectations for year-end 2025 fell to 3.85pc from 4.97pc, down for a second consecutive month. The consumer price index (CPI) quickened to 3.57pc in August from 3.51pc, the lowest annual headline rate since December 2020.
On 25 September, statistics agency Inegi reported modest CPI acceleration in late August and early September as the base effect that had slowed inflation began to fade. September CPI data will be published on 9 October.
The forecast for the central bank's end-2025 target rate dropped to 7pc from 7.25pc, with more cuts expected from the current 7.5pc — the lowest since June 2022. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points on 25 September, its sixth reduction of 2025 and the second quarter-point move after four half-point cuts.
Analysts also revised the peso outlook, projecting Ps19.01/$1 by end-2025 compared with Ps19.50/$1 in July. The 2026 forecast moved to Ps19.80/$1 from Ps20.00/$1. The dollar has weakened by about 10pc against the peso this year.
