Ministers gathering for the second week of the UN Cop 30 climate summit are tasked with piecing together informal negotiations, including on a potential roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, responses to the lack of ambition in new climate plans, and other topics on the official agenda.
Ministers will have to wrap up talks held in informal presidency consultations on four key topics — unilateral trade measures, climate finance obligations, emissions reporting and responses to climate plans — even though it remains unclear how a potential deal might look.
The Brazilian Cop 30 presidency released a note on 17 November highlighting where parties continue to disagree. Gaps remain on finance, with some countries eyeing a work programme, while developed countries reaffirm that their obligations towards developing countries are covered under the new $300bn/yr finance goal agreed last year in Baku. There are also five options on the response to climate plans. One is to have an "annual consideration" under official negotiations of the report weighing country targets and actions, while another is to have an unnamed roadmap to accelerate implementation, international co-operation and investment to be published before Cop 31.
Some negotiating groups, including the alliance of small island states (Aosis) and the Environmental Integrity Group (EIG) are supporting the creation of a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap, while the "EU strongly welcomes the idea for a roadmap being discussed at Cop 30," energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said. Germany, Spain, Switzerland and the UK have also signalled support. But UK energy minister Ed Miliband pointed out the difficulty for some countries to move away from fossil fuels, including reliance on hydrocarbons for energy and jobs.
Brazil and Colombia are also supporting the roadmap. But few other developing oil producers have spoken in favour of it, pointing to their dependence on hydrocarbons, the need for increased finance flows and a just transition. "It's acceptable that Nigeria is ready to transition, but transitioning now has to be consistent with a bunch of economic priorities," the director general of Nigeria's national council on climate change Omotenioye Majekodunmi said. Transitioning away from fossil fuels "must recognise the very strong differences in economic opportunities," she said. The Arab Group, which includes major oil producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE, wants to focus on the climate finance obligations of developed countries.
The calls for a fossil fuel roadmap have yet to turn into something more tangible, according to the presidency. Brazilian environment minister Marina Silva said that she does not expect a decision on this at this Cop but welcomes the "beginning of the construction". Even if a roadmap fails to materialise in Belem, the pressure on fossil fuels is likely here to stay at climate summits.
Official talks
Ministers will also need to agree on official items this week, including adaptation, just transition and the UAE dialogue, which aims to advance the implementation of the global stocktake (GST). The GST agreed two years ago at Cop 28 in Dubai featured the call to transition away from fossil fuels and triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, which has since received some pushback.
To help them, the Brazilian presidency asked countries to finish all technical works on the agenda items by 18 November. Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni struck a positive note about negotiations at the end of the first week, saying several texts have already been approved, but conceded that a lot of work remained to be done.
An informal text on the just transition work programme featured options with language on fossil fuels and the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies, but the paragraphs face opposition. The text recognises the role of transitional fuels — largely natural gas — while transition minerals have been included within the scope of the programme.
"To get, you must give, and being honest, we need to be giving more," UN climate body UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said. "The issues that may not be priorities for you are clearly issues and priorities for other nations," he added.
