UK to introduce EV mileage charge, raise fuel duty

: Battery materials, Electricity, Metals, Oil products
25/11/26

The UK government's budget today will include a new mileage-based charge for electric vehicles (EVs) and a gradual increase in fuel duty.

A document from the public finance watchdog OBR, released seemingly in error ahead of the budget announcement at 12:30 GMT, showed the new charge will be £0.03/mile for battery electric and £0.015/mile for plug-in hybrids, effective from the 2028-29 financial year.

The document says that for an average driver this will work out at around half the rate of fuel duty paid by drivers of gasoline and diesel vehicles. But it estimates around 440,000 fewer EV sales as a result, and said 130,000 of that are likely to be offset by a new incentive to buy EVs.

It also said the rate of fuel duty will remain at current levels until September 2026, after which "the 5p cut first introduced in 2022 will be reversed through a staggered approach".

For power markets, the government "will temporarily refund electricity suppliers for 75pc of the domestic portion of the renewables obligation (RO) scheme in 2026-27, 2027-28 and 2028-29", the document says. This will reduce household bills in those years, it says.

By Ben Winkley

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25/12/04

Funds’ Ice gasoil long position down from 45-month high

London, 4 December (Argus) — Sharp swings in European diesel prices in November were driven in part by entities with no physical exposure, as money managers briefly held their largest long positions in Ice gasoil futures in nearly four years. Funds have looked to gasoil futures because of increasing volatility in the contract when compared with Ice Brent crude futures, according to a senior participant in oil paper markets. The daily change in the value of front-month Ice gasoil has averaged 1.66pc so far this year, compared with 1.32pc for front-month Ice Brent. Money managers — hedge funds and pensions funds, along with other entities managing on behalf of clients — have increased their long positions in Ice gasoil futures as the year has progressed. This reached a 45-month high of 153,689 lots in the week to 18 November, according to Ice's Commitment of Traders report. Ice gasoil futures hit $777.50/t on 18 November, the third-highest of the year. Money managers trimmed 10pc of that position the following week, to 137,971 as of 25 November. Ice futures fell below $700/t on that date, pressured by reported progress on a plan to end the conflict in Ukraine. This led market participants to consider what peace would mean for diesel markets: a slow down in Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure and, in the longer term, a possible European return to importing Russian diesel. Funds' long position is still almost double the 74,015 held at the start of 2025, and the average 75,398 held in 2024. Long and the short of it Before peace talks started to progress, money managers' net long positions were the highest in more than three-and-a-half years. An analyst said funds have probably taken an overall position of being long diesel cracks — taking long positions in gasoil futures and short ones in Brent. Permanent cuts to refining capacity in Europe, as well as extensive temporary outages this year, have contributed to a disconnect between gasoil and Brent price movements. As gasoil prices rise, refiners can hit capacity limits, which has capped their crude buying and kept Brent steadier. Managed money held the biggest short position in Brent since at least 2015 on 21 October at 190,639 lots. This has fallen since, but did rebound to 163,975 on 25 November, the eighth shortest since 2015. Funds' involvement in futures has further increased volatility, as they tend to buy and sell futures more quickly than entities with physical exposure. That volatility increases potential losses as well as potential gains. Some funds may have made very large losses this year because of unexpected swings, the paper market participant said. European diesel often prices on a exchange-of-futures-for-physical (EFP) basis, using Ice gasoil futures, meaning the futures price can be an influence on the physical price. European physical diesel cargoes priced at a $45.64/bl premium against North Sea Dated on 19 November, the highest in nearly three years. The following week, when money managers were cutting their long positions, the physical diesel premium fell to $27.15/bl. Ice gasoil futures is a physically-delivered contract, so any price dislocation is generally soon closed as traders look to work an arbitrage between the futures and physical. By Josh Michalowski and Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN

25/12/04

Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN

Edinburgh, 4 December (Argus) — Qatar has pledged to reduce its emissions by 42mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2040 from a 2019 baseline, with the oil and gas sector "at the forefront of national mitigation efforts". Qatar does not provide its total greenhouse emissions for 2019, but said its climate plan encompasses CO2, methane and nitrous oxide gases. It covers the energy sector — oil and gas, power and water — construction and industry, transport, waste and agriculture, forestry and other land use. Parties to the Paris Agreement were required to submit climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), for 2035 to the UN climate body UNFCCC this year. Qatar had previously targeted emission reductions of 25pc, or 37mn CO2e, by 2030, compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. BAU scenarios typically assume emissions based on current policies, leaving room for potential increases. The country's emission cuts in its oil and gas sector will rely on "deploying cleaner fossil fuel technologies, developing engineered sinks to store emissions, diversifying the energy mix, and driving operational excellence across existing facilities and infrastructure", according to its climate plan. Qatar is the world's largest LNG producer, with a production capacity of 77mn t/yr, according to QatarEnergy, and its economy is heavily reliant on hydrocarbon revenues. The country's climate plan highlights the country's vulnerability to response measures to mitigate climate change, resulting from its economy's reliance on hydrocarbons. "Qatar is actively working to reduce the socio-economic effects of global climate action," the plan said, adding that it seeks to balance climate goals with national sustainable development. "Despite many efforts and considering its role as a leading producer and exporter of natural gas, Qatar remains significantly vulnerable to climate response measures," it said. Qatar is part of the Arab Group, a negotiating group in UNFCCC climate talks, which is seeking to focus on cutting emissions from fossil fuels, rather than hydrocarbon production and consumption, through increased adoption of carbon capture technologies. The country said it plays "a pivotal role" in supporting other countries' targets by "reliably supplying them with a cleaner alternative to coal and oil and providing a critical backup for intermittent renewables". Qatar's climate plan sees the secure and affordable supply of lower-carbon energy as well as the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the management of emissions of energy production as the focus to pursue sustainable development and climate action. The country considers itself to be among the leaders in CCS with its Ras Laffan project, and aims to capture 11mn t/yr of CO2 by 2035. Engineering firm Samsung C&T was recently awarded a contract to build a 4.1mn t/yr CO2 facility to process and store emissions from Qatar's LNG liquefaction plants. Qatar, in its climate plan, highlighted the country's water supply vulnerability to temperature increases and heat. The power and water sector accounts for a large share of the country's emissions. Water scarcity is also responsible for increasing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Bahrain through desalination, although its energy sector remains the main source of emissions, according to the country's new climate plan. The country is heavily reliant on fossil fuels for its energy and revenues, while "limited land availability and competing land-use demands constrain large-scale deployment" for the development of solar energy. Rising demand over the peak summer months this year meant that Bahrain had to import LNG for the first time since commissioning its 800mn ft³/d onshore LNG receiving and regasification terminal in 2020. But it is looking at renewables options and is in talks with Saudi Arabia for a link to a large-scale solar facility. Bahrain said that response measures to climate change "may lead to economic losses that, in turn, hinder Bahrain's ability to pursue effective climate action and achieve broader sustainable development objectives." By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Glencore to raise global copper production by 2035

25/12/04

Glencore to raise global copper production by 2035

Sydney, 4 December (Argus) — Global metals producer Glencore expects to increase its copper output to 1.6mn t by 2035, on the back of mine expansions, but faces short-term copper challenges. It plans to produce 1.1mn t of copper in 2029, up from 850,000-875,000t in 2025, Glencore told investors in a capital markets day presentation on 3 December. It will then further increase production to around 1.6mn t by 2035, the company added. Glencore's copper growth will come largely from the planned mine developments and restart projects (see table) over the next few years, including the 2028 reopening of its Alumbrera mine in Argentina. Development work at the company's Collahuasi mine — a joint venture with UK-South African producer Anglo American and Mitsui-owned producer Japan Collahuasi — in Chile will also support its growth plan. The project will increase Glencore's long-term output but has dampened its short-term production outlook. The company cut its 2026 copper production guidance to 810,000–870,000t on 3 December, from 930,000t in February, because of mine plan changes at the site. Total production at Collahuasi fell by 31pc on the year in July-September, from 431,200t to 297,000t, because of lower ore grades, data from Chilean copper commission Chochilco show. The mine will operate at a reduced rate in 2026 because of development work, Anglo American told investors on 29 October. Glencore also cut the upper bound of its 2025 copper production guidance from 890,000t to 875,000t in late October because of operational and ore grade issues. It expects to produce at the lower end of its 850,000–875,000t range over the year. The company mined 583,500t of copper in January-September, down by 17pc on the year. By Avinash Govind Glencore Copper Projects Project Location Date Production (Average LOM, '000t) Alumbrera Restart Argentina 1H 2028 75 Collahuasi - LG stockpile leeching Chile 2028 22 Antapaccay - Coroccohuayco Peru 2H 2029 148 MUMI - Sulphides Democratic Republic of Congo 2031 97 Agua Rica Argentina 2H 2031 156 NewRange - stage 1 USA 2031 18 Collahuasi - New concentrator Chile 2H 2033 142 El Pachon Argentina 2034 338 NewRange - stage 2 USA 2037 55 Antapaccay district Peru 2037 201 *LOM: Life of mine Source: Glencore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LNG to fill the gap as Seoul pledges faster coal exit

25/12/03

LNG to fill the gap as Seoul pledges faster coal exit

South Korea is scrambling for alternatives to coal-fired power to maintain sufficient base-load capacity, writes Evelyn Lee London, 3 December (Argus) — South Korea's pledge to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2040 has thrown its energy strategy into sharp focus, exposing a looming 40GW capacity gap. With nuclear expansion stalling and renewables facing infrastructure hurdles, LNG has become the most likely bridge to fill the potential shortfall. South Korea has formally confirmed its plan to retire 40 out of its 61 existing coal-fired units by 2040, following its declaration during the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil last month to join the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) — a coalition of countries committed to ending coal use for power generation. The phase out timeline for the country's remaining 21 units — some of which were built relatively recently — will be determined through public consultation taking into account economic and environmental feasibility, and a detailed phase-out strategy is expected to be finalised next year, the PPCA says. This aligns with Seoul's intention to establish its 2026-40 long-term power plan by the end of next year. The firm phase-out pledge leaves South Korea scrambling for alternatives to maintain sufficient base-load power capacity. Its current long-term power plan covering 2024-39 was established in February under the previous administration of then-president Yoon Suk-Yeol. It earmarked 28 aging coal-fired units with a combined 14.1GW of capacity for conversion to LNG, and 12 units with 6.8GW of capacity to transition to carbon-free generation, such as pumped storage, hydrogen or ammonia co-firing, all by 2038. The current administration under President Lee Jae-Myung has indicated it does not intend to allow plants to switch to ammonia co-firing , signalling a decisive break from earlier strategies that sought to keep coal in the mix under a low-carbon guise. In line with this, Lee's administration in October cancelled the second round of a clean hydrogen power generation bidding market, which would have subsidised hydrogen and ammonia co-firing under 15-year contracts. Seoul searching An accelerated coal phase-out alongside a ban on approving new nuclear reactors has led to growing expectations that South Korea will lean more heavily on gas-fired plants to maintain its power system at least until renewables capacity catches up. The current electricity plan stipulates building two new 1.4GW reactors and continued use of expiring reactors, resulting in nuclear capacity rising to 35.2GW in 2038 from 26.1GW in 2025. But the Lee administration has ruled out building new reactors, although construction of reactors already under development can proceed as planned. The government has approved the restart of the 650MW Kori reactor 2, in line with the president's stance that expiring reactors may continue operating if safety standards are met. But even with these measures, Seoul must identify more than 40GW of replacement capacity by 2040, based on information currently available. This is roughly equivalent to the country's entire coal-fired fleet, which has accounted for around 28pc of total power output this year. The government aims to expand South Korea's renewable energy capacity to 100GW by 2030 from a previous target of 80.9GW and current capacity of 37.9GW, but its renewables rollout continues to be constrained by insufficient transmission capacity upgrades, mainly driven by local opposition. A law to accelerate grid projects came into force on 26 September, but progress is now being held up by local governments, which are reluctant to approve project permits in a bid to maintain positive public opinion ahead of municipal elections in June next year. Persistent grid bottlenecks have increased the country's reliance on gas-fired generation in recent years, as these plants are located close to the main demand centre around Seoul. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US services PMI rises in November

25/12/03

US services PMI rises in November

Houston, 3 December (Argus) — Economic activity in the US services sector, the biggest part of the economy, expanded further in November, as business activity and new orders rose, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported today. The purchasing managers index (PMI) for services rose to 52.6 in November, up from 52.4 in October, marking the fifth consecutive month above 50, which is the divide between expansion and contraction. Still, the 12-month average of 51.7 was the lowest since August 2024. The business activity/production index rose in November by 0.2 points to 54.5. The new orders index slipped to 52.9, down by 3.3 percentage points from October but above its 12-month average. The backlog of orders approached expansion with a PMI at 49.1, up from 40.8 in October. The prices index fell to 65.4 in November, down from 70 the prior month, signaling slowing gains. The continued expansion in the business activity and new orders indexes and the rising backlog of orders "are positive signs of an emerging recovery for the services sector", ISM said. "On the downside, tariffs and the government shutdown continue to be noted by survey respondents as impacting both demand and costs." The employment PMI rose to 48.9 from 48.2 in October, signaling a slowing contraction. The supplier deliveries index rose by 3.3 points to 54.1, indicating slower deliveries by suppliers, "likely due to air traffic disruptions from the government shutdown and customs impacts related to changing tariffs," ISM said. A higher supplier delivery reading indicates slower deliveries, typically a sign of rising demand and an improving economy. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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