German B7 diesel premiums surge on quota rise

: Oil products
25/12/11

Traders in Germany are offering B7 diesel for January at a €10-17/100l ($11.70-19.92/100l) premium to December prices, a record high for the period, as a result of an increase in Germany's CO2 levy and greenhouse gas (GHG) quota.

The offered premium is significantly higher than Argus' estimates of €8.50/100l for B7 diesel (see chart) for the period, likely because traders have priced in some market uncertainty as they were waiting for the transposition of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) into national law. The vote by the German federal cabinet yesterday to implement RED III should provide some clarity on the legal framework for 2026, although some grey areas remain.

The GHG quota will rise to 12pc in 2026 from 10.6pc currently, requiring companies to submit more GHG certificates when selling fossil fuels. The vote confirmed market participants' expectation that advanced fuels can no longer be double-counted towards fulfilling the GHG quota. The removal of this double-counting provision could make blending biofuels more attractive and raise prices for both biofuels and GHG certificate transfers.

Market participants also expect a decline in biofuel imports from Asia-Pacific, as some imports from the region are unlikely to meet the criteria to generate European GHG certificates. This is because of the planned cancellation of the 'legitimate-expectations' rule, which currently protects buyers of illegitimate GHG certificates from having them revoked. Lower Asia-Pacific volumes will affect biofuels' availability in Europe and likely support prices.

Some uncertainty about the specific design of the sub-quota for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs), such as e-fuels and green hydrogen has also been lifted. A November draft included a penalty of around €120/GJ for non-compliance with the RFNBO sub-quota, instead of the previously proposed €70/GJ. The cabinet meeting on 10 December confirmed this higher penalty.

But some traders remain uncertain on which price to use for the CO2 levy next year, with some using a CO2 price of €68/t of CO2e for their calculations — the price set for companies unsuccessful in a new CO2 auction system for the levy.

The CO2 levy will transition next year from a fixed-price model, currently at €55/t of CO2e, to an auction system where the price of an emission allowance can fluctuate between €55/t and €65/t. One emission allowance corresponds to one tonne of CO2 equivalent. Companies that are unsuccessful in auctions can subsequently buy emission allowances at a fixed price of €68/t. The price could also be even higher in the secondary market for companies that do not participate in auctions.

But there is some uncertainty about the auction process. The auctions will not start until next summer and the specific CO2 costs will not be fully clear until then. Some traders are so planning additional cash reserves to cover any increases in payments.

This is also why some fuel suppliers are still holding back on announcing January prices because of these regulatory uncertainties, further increasing market uncertainty. But the cabinet decision yesterday could push traders to finalise their pricing for January.

Reported premiums for heating oil are between €2.50/100l and €4.50/100l, which is roughly in line with Argus' calculations.

By Marcel Pott

CO2 levy per 100l			€
Kosten pro t CO2	B0/HE	B7	E5	E10

45 €	12,04	11,21	10,43	10,07
55 €	14,72	13,70	12,75	12,31
65 €	17,40	16,19	15,07	14,55
68 €	18,20	16,93	15,76	15,22
B7 with 6.8l FAME; E5 with 4.8l ethanol and E10 with 9.66l ethanol

GHG compliance costs per 100l			€
	B0	B7	E5	E10
2025	9,13	9,70	6,83	6,74
2026	16,33	14,99	11,68	10,72
Compliance with the GHG quota through blending and purchasing certificates, compliance with the RFNBO mandate through penalty

Cumulative costs of GHG quota and CO₂ levy

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25/12/11

Commodity rail shippers push for more train data

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — Industrial shippers of commodities like grain and petrochemicals want federal regulators to widen the scope of proposed rules that would require Class I railroads to report more data on their on-time service performance. US rail regulator the Surface Transportation Board (STB) in September put the industry on notice that it intends to issue rules to require that each of the six biggest railroads, including Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, report two new categories of performance data to the agency. The first would benchmark railroads' shipments against their original estimated time of arrival (OETA) and the second would measure "industry spot and pull" data, or ISP, to determine whether shipments are picked up and delivered within their planned service window. The board action aims to address rail shippers' long-running concerns that unpredictable rail service is a wild card in their supply chains, as many shippers rely nearly completely on rail to get their goods to market. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), an industry group that lobbies for US refiners and petrochemical manufacturers, applauded the STB for working to address "chronic freight rail service failures." The OETA is meant to track a carrier's targeted arrival time when it dispatches a cargo and then flag the percentage of weekly shipments that reach their destinations no later than 24 hours after an intended target, the STB said in its proposal. The AFPM, whose members include companies like Dow, Occidental Chemical and Ineos who collectively ship about 2.5mn carloads a year, said OETA data should be broken out by region, terminal, and corridor "to reveal localized bottlenecks often masked by system averages." As proposed, the STB's OETA measurement would apply to manifest train service, where trains haul an assortment of railcar types, and not to unit trains, which exclusively haul one railcar type or bulk commodity, such as coal, grain or crude. Grain shippers and the US Department of Agriculture disagreed with the STB's decision to exclude unit train shipments from the OETA measurement. The National Grain and Feed Association, whose members include Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge and other biofuels makers, said that late unit train deliveries of commodities like grain, ethanol or coal "can result in proportionally greater harm to the shipper/receiver" than smaller manifest shipments. The USDA agreed that unit train shipments should be included in the OETA measurement, and pointed out that about 75pc of US railed corn and soybean shipments in 2023 traveled in trains hauling more than 75 railcars, which would not be captured by manifest shipment data. Demand for agricultural products is highly seasonal, and missed delivery windows "can halt processing lines, disrupt export programs, and force shippers to carry excess private car inventory to buffer uncertainty," the agency said. The Association of American Railroads (AAR), which lobbies on behalf of Class I railroads, pushed back on industry requests to widen the OETA to include unit train shipments, and told the STB that several railroads do not currently generate the metrics. Adding the reporting requirements "would add regulatory burden, waste resources, and misrepresent service on the network," the AAR said. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Supply surplus masks regional market tightness: IEA

25/12/11

Supply surplus masks regional market tightness: IEA

London, 11 December (Argus) — A large global oil surplus is masking regional tightness in crude and products markets, the IEA said today. In its final Oil Market Report (OMR) for 2025, the IEA said oil prices have only fallen modestly despite the large supply overhang because of "diverging dynamics" across crude, NGLs and products in different regions. This disconnect "notably reflects the high share of exports subject to sanctions (15pc of crude and 11pc of products), lengthening of supply routes and a tight refining system," it said. The IEA's global oil supply and demand balances imply a 3mn b/d supply surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, and more than 3.8mn b/d in 2026. While oil on water has been rising and inventories building in China — global observed inventories rose by 1.4mn b/d in October, to a four-year high, and preliminary data show a further increase in November — there has been a notable absence of stock builds in key Atlantic basin pricing hubs, the IEA said, which is supporting prices and keeping crude futures in backwardation. In products markets, refinery outages and a coming EU ban on imports of products derived from Russia crude has led to three-year high refining margins in November, the IEA said. This trend could continue in 2026 given "limited spare refining capacity outside of China." The IEA said NGLs are increasingly comprising a large share of the overall liquids supply surplus, limiting the overhang's effect on crude prices. The IEA upgraded its 2025 consumption growth forecast by 50,000 b/d to 830,000 b/d, based on an improving macroeconomic outlook and subsiding anxieties about trade tariffs. This would bring overall demand in 2025 to 103.92mn b/d. The IEA's first oil demand growth forecast for 2025, made in April 2024, had consumption growing by 1.15mn b/d. The IEA also upgraded its 2026 demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d, which would bring total demand to 104.79mn b/d. The IEA lowered its supply growth projection for 2025 by 100,000 b/d to 3.05mn b/d and for 2026 by 30,000 b/d to 2.45mn b/d. These were mainly because of disruptions to supplies in sanctioned countries such as Russia and Venezuela, the IEA said. This leaves supply forecast at 106.18mn b/d in 2025 and 108.63mn bd in 2026. The IEA said Russia's crude output fell by 210,000 b/d in November to 9mn b/d, which is 500,000 b/d below its Opec+ target for the month. Russia's oil exports fell by about 400,000 b/d in November to 6.9mn b/d, "as buyers assessed the implications and risks associated with more stringent sanctions." Venezuela's crude output fell by 150,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d "as sanctions and rising geopolitical tensions with the US limited the country's ability to market its oil," the IEA said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

N Zealand's gas output falls for 8th quarter in Jul-Sep

25/12/11

N Zealand's gas output falls for 8th quarter in Jul-Sep

Sydney, 11 December (Argus) — New Zealand's July-September gas production fell on the year for the eighth consecutive quarter, diverging from industrial gas demand, while gasoline imports rose and crude production dropped, data from the country's business, innovation and employment ministry (MBIE) show. Net gas production fell by 16pc on the year to 25.5PJ (681mn m³) in July-September, down from 30.2PJ a year earlier, data from the MBIE's New Zealand Energy Quarterly show. The country's gas stocks also fell by 2.4PJ over the same period, indicating a drawdown of inventories. New Zealand's conservative government also launched a procurement process for an LNG import terminal in October. Industrial users consumed 10.3PJ of gas over the quarter, up by 14pc on the year, largely because of the restart of Canadian methanol producer Methanex's 1.72mn t/yr Motunui plant. Methanex idled its plant in August–October 2024 and May–early July 2025 to support gas-fired power generation. The site has operated normally since then. New Zealand's gas-fired electricity generation fell in July-September. Utilities burned 7PJ over the quarter, down from 9.2PJ a year earlier, because of strong renewable generation. The country's hydroelectric and geothermal generation rose by 23pc and 6.5pc on the year, respectively. New Zealand's gasoline imports rose by 7.4pc on the year in July-September (see table). New Zealand also restarted oil and gas exploration in September , and extended permits for the 5,600 b/d Maari oil field for a decade in August. By Avinash Govind New Zealand energy production and imports b/d Jul-Sep '25 Apr-Jun '25 Jul-Sep '24 q-o-q ± % y-o-y ± % Gasoline imports 49,972 50,531 46,516 -1.1 7.4 Diesel imports 65,093 67,306 61,411 -3.3 6 Jet fuel imports 28,406 28,923 28,884 -1.8 -1.7 Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) 15,056 13,954 15,687 7.9 -4 Gas production (PJ) 26 26 30 -0.9 -16 Source: New Zealand's Ministry of Business, Innnovation and Employement Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US fuel groups eye compromise in E15 talks

25/12/10

US fuel groups eye compromise in E15 talks

New York, 10 December (Argus) — Major US fuel groups agree on the framework for a bill that would authorize a higher ethanol blend in gasoline and revamp a separate program requiring biofuel blending. But there is more work ahead before a final deal can be reached, sources told Argus . The American Petroleum Institute withdrew support earlier this year for a slimmer bill allowing year-round sale of gasoline blends with 15pc ethanol (E15), kickstarting a new round of negotiations. The group has since been pitching the White House and biofuel groups on a larger bill that would both allow E15 and restrict small refiners' ability to skirt biofuel quotas. The oil group, ethanol advocates and fuel retailers last week publicly endorsed the general framework of a bill to allow year-round E15 and limit small refinery blending exemptions, and negotiations are ongoing. The issue has the attention of President Donald Trump, who asked a farmer at a White House event this week if E15 would be "a big deal". The US requires oil companies to annually blend biofuels, while allowing small refiners to seek hardship exemptions. Sales of ethanol blends above 10pc are limited in the summer due to smog rules. Whether the groups can compromise and persuade Congress to act will shape crop demand, biofuel production margins and retail fuel prices in the coming years. Past proposals to legalize E15 year-round, a longtime priority for the ethanol industry, have failed. The idea The American Petroleum Institute's pitch for reining in exemptions is to reduce the number of eligible companies and to make it harder for them to prove distress, according to five people familiar with the group's lobbying. A Trump administration plan that would require refiners without exemptions to blend more biofuels to compensate for refiners with exemptions has raised the stakes of the debate and riled larger oil companies. The oil group has floated restricting exemptions to companies with limited collective refining capacity, excluding larger enterprises like Delek that own multiple smaller units. The group has also proposed scrapping a Department of Energy hardship scoring system that has yielded unpredictable results over the years and that a 2022 Government Accountability Office study found was "critically flawed". Instead, refiners would have to prove that hardship stems directly from the biofuel program, and regulators could offer "proportional" exemptions based on the evidence, three of the people said. The US currently waives either all or half of the blend mandates for refiners that prove hardship. The Trump administration this year granted dozens of requests for exemptions from prior-year mandates, and more petitions are pending. More work ahead While these ideas address longstanding concerns from biofuel and crop groups that waivers curb demand for their products, the American Petroleum Institute also wants to permanently bar regulators from requiring other oil companies offset biofuel volumes lost to exemptions — a tougher sell in the Farm Belt. Another concern is timing. The American Petroleum Institute initially pushed for the exemption changes and ban on redistributing biofuel obligations to take effect next year. But some energy lobbyists want a delay until 2028, fearing that immediate changes could delay the Trump administration's work to finalize new biofuel blend mandates, three people said. New quotas for 2026 and 2027 are already late. Oil interests outside the American Petroleum Institute could also push back if negotiations advance. Refiners so far have been divided. Some want to protect their ability to win lucrative exemptions, while others have long taken issue with special rules for their competitors and hotly oppose Trump's plan to make them blend more biofuels to compensate. Even if the groups reach a deal, convincing Congress is its own challenge. An E15 proposal last year was pulled out of a larger spending package at the last minute , and farm-state lawmakers have been unsuccessful more recently in their efforts to add E15 to a defense bill. One option lobbyists have eyed is adding any new E15 agreement to legislation to fund the government after 30 January. The Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, said that it "continues to have serious discussions with multiple stakeholder groups and we are encouraged by the progress of those conversations". The American Petroleum Institute and ethanol industry group Growth Energy declined to comment. The Environmental Protection Agency said it is "committed to strengthening American energy security and supporting American farmers" but noted that changing rules around E15 and small refinery exemptions "requires an act of Congress". It is not clear how much more ethanol drivers would burn if the US permitted year-round E15. Most gas stations do not currently offer the blend, which advocates blame on regulatory hurdles deterring retailers from investing in new infrastructure. Rising vehicle fuel efficiency and electric vehicle sales have also cut into liquid fuel demand. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bundeskabinett beschließt Anpassung der THG-Quote

25/12/10

Bundeskabinett beschließt Anpassung der THG-Quote

Hamburg, 10 December (Argus) — Das Bundeskabinett hat am 10. Dezember ein Gesetz zur Umsetzung der RED III in nationales Recht beschlossen. Das Gesetz wird voraussichtlich nicht vor dem 1. Januar verabschiedet, soll aber rückwirkend ab dann gelten. Damit passt der Gesetzgeber die Treibhausgasminderungsquote an und schafft die Doppelanrechnung fortschrittlicher Kraftstoffe ab. Preise für THG-Zertifikate steigen bereits. Die Gesetzesvorlage, die das Kabinett beschlossen hat, entspricht weitestgehend einem Entwurf vom 29. Oktober, der im November durchgesickert ist . So soll unter anderem die Quotenhöhe bis 2040 auf 59 % steigen. Für 2026 wird sie 12 % betragen. Flugzeug- und Schiffskraftstoffe sind von der Quotenverpflichtung ausgenommen. Das Gesetz beendet zudem die Anrechenbarkeit von Palmölprodukten, insbesondere Palmölmühlen-Abwasser (POME), auf die THG-Quote, wie bereits in einem früheren Ministerialentwurf vorgesehen. Allerdings tritt das Verbot für POME sowie die Pflicht für Kraftstoffproduzenten, Vor-Ort-Kontrollen durch eine zuständige Behörde eines EU-Mitgliedstaats zuzulassen, erst 2027 in Kraft. Damit bleibt 2026 ein Übergangsjahr. Der Gesetzentwurf bestätigt auch das Ende der Doppelanrechnung für fortschrittliche Biokraftstoffe, ein zentraler Unsicherheitsfaktor für Marktteilnehmer. Nach geltendem Recht können fortschrittliche Biokraftstoffe mit dem zweifachen ihres Energiegehalts auf die THG-Quote angerechnet werden, sofern das Mindestmandat für fortschrittliche Kraftstoffe erfüllt ist. In der Folge müssen Inverkehrbringer künftig mehr Biokraftstoffe auf dem Markt bringen oder THG-Zertifikate kaufen, um die Quote zu erfüllen. Die Änderung zur Abschaffung der Doppelanrechnung gilt jedoch für das gesamte Verpflichtungsjahr und alle Folgejahre, was bedeutet, dass sie rückwirkend ab dem 1. Januar 2026 greift. Die einzige Ausnahme gilt für Kraftstoffe, die vor dem 1. Januar 2026 in Verkehr gebracht wurden. Das Gesetz tritt am zweiten Tag nach seiner Veröffentlichung im Bundesgesetzblatt in Kraft, wobei einzelne Abschnitte aus verfahrensrechtlichen Gründen einen Tag früher wirksam werden. Der Gesetzentwurf muss nun dem Bundesrat und dem Bundestag zur Beratung vorgelegt werden. Die Zustimmung des Bundesrats ist nicht erforderlich. Der Bundestag könnte jedoch noch Änderungen einbringen. Erst nach Zustimmung des Bundestags kann das Gesetz dem Bundespräsidenten zur Unterzeichnung vorgelegt und anschließend im Bundesgesetzblatt veröffentlicht werden. Der Abschluss des Gesetzgebungsverfahrens wird im ersten Quartal 2026 erwartet. Änderungen bei Unterquoten, RFNBOs und Biomethan Das Mandat für fortschrittliche Biokraftstoffe aus Rohstoffen gemäß Anhang IX der RED III wird ebenfalls erhöht und soll bis 2040 9 % erreichen, wie bereits im Entwurf vom 29. Oktober vorgesehen. Das Mandat für erneuerbare Kraftstoffe nicht biogenen Ursprungs (RFNBOs) — wie E-Fuels und grüner Wasserstoff — fällt höher aus als im vorherigen Entwurf. Es steigt bis 2034 auf 2,5 % des Energiemixes eines verpflichteten Unternehmens, statt 1,8 % im Entwurf von Oktober, und erreicht 2040 8 % statt 4 %. Die Strafzahlung bei Nichterfüllung beträgt 120 €/GJ. Importiertes Biomethan kann auf die THG-Quote angerechnet werden, sofern bestimmte Bedingungen wie der Anschluss an das EU-Gasnetz erfüllt sind. Kleinere Anpassungen umfassen die Absenkung des Basiswerts für Emissionen von 94,1 kg CO2e/GJ auf 94 kg CO2e/GJ, um die EU-Vorgaben zu harmonisieren, sowie die Verschiebung der Frist für die Anmeldung beim Hauptzollamt vom 15. April auf den 1. Juni des Folgejahres. Markt reagiert mit Preissprung Der Markt für THG-Zertifikate reagierte sofort. Zertifikate der Kategorie "Andere" für 2025 werden am 10. Dezember rund 20 €/t CO2e höher gehandelt als am Vortag, und auch die Preise für Zertifikate für 2026 und 2027 steigen. Die Preise für 2025-Zertifikate steigen, obwohl sie von der Gesetzesänderung nicht direkt betroffen sind, da sie als Ersatz für 2027-Zertifikate gelten, weil überschüssige Erfüllung aus 2025 auf 2027 übertragen wird. Zudem könnte HVO künftig eine zentrale Rolle bei der Erfüllung der THG-Quote spielen, was die Zertifikatspreise beeinflussen kann. Die Nachfrage nach fortschrittlichem HVO könnte deutlich steigen, da es unbegrenzt auf die THG-Quote angerechnet werden kann — sowohl als Beimischungskomponente als auch als Reinkraftstoff — und in den meisten bestehenden Diesel-Fahrzeugflotten eingesetzt werden kann. Das Ende der Doppelanrechnung könnte auch die Nachfrage nach nicht-fortschrittlichen Biodiesel-Sorten wie RME (Rapsbasis) und UCOME (Altspeiseölbasis) erhöhen. Deren Anrechenbarkeit ist zwar auf einen bestimmten Prozentsatz des Energiemixes eines Unternehmens begrenzt, doch wurde diese Grenze in der Vergangenheit nicht immer ausgeschöpft. Von Max Steinhau & Chloe Jardine Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

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German B7 diesel premiums surge on quota rise

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