La Nina may cut Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn

: Agriculture, Fertilizers
25/12/19

Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn crop may face slight losses following the La Nina climate phenomenon, which delayed soybean planting.

Farmers plant soybeans and winter corn in the same area, so delays in the oilseed planting could push back grain sowing.

Areas sown outside the official planting window for the 2025-26 corn crop are subject to adverse weather conditions and risk reaching their reproductive stages of grain filling and flowering, which are more sensitive to water stress, at the height of winter in Brazil, when the weather is dry.

The deadline for concluding soybean sowing in the center-west — which encompasses Goias, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso do Sul states — was 10-25 October for winter corn to be sown and developed with low climatic risk. The closing period for a winter corn crop with medium climatic risk was 21 October-5 November, according to market participants.

Irregular weather at the start of the 2025-26 soybean planting caused a delay in some regions. Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states finalized sowing in the weeks ended 5 December and 13 December, respectively. Planting in Goias state reached 97pc completion by 13 December.

If corn planting is significantly delayed, farmers may also reduce the technology for planting. Planting outside the ideal window can harm productivity and, hence, the profitability of the crop. Prices of inputs needed for grain cultivation are higher this season, which can demotivate farmers to invest amid uncertain output. Production costs for Mato Grosso's 2025-26 winter corn crop rose from the previous one, with fertilizer costs estimated at R1,418/hectare ($256.50/ha) from R1,342/ha a year prior, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea.

But current estimates have yet to reflect this scenario. National supply company Conab kept its third estimates, released in December, mostly stable from the first outlook for the season published in October. Brazil is expected to produce 110.5mn metric tonnes (t) of corn in the second crop, 2.4pc less than the previous cycle's 113.2mn t. The drop reflects the expected 6pc decrease in yields to 6,105 kg/ha from 6,496 kg/ha. This may come despite the nearly 4pc increase in planted area to 18.1mn ha (181,000km²).

Corn prices are expected to remain stable in the coming months, according to Investment bank Itau BBA forecasts. The 2024-25 corn season — considering the first, second and third crops — increased by nearly 21pc, or 24.2mn t, but high domestic demand helped sustain prices. Total 2025-26 corn output may drop by 1.5pc, or 2.2mn t, but it is expected that prices may be firm due to the competition between domestic and export markets.

La Nina effects

La Nina provoked irregular rainfall in October-November and consequently delayed the 2025-26 soybean planting window.

The La Nina phenomenon is an abnormal cooling of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. The consequence of this phenomenon in Brazil is a delay in the start of regular rainfall, reducing volumes in the south and increasing humidity in the north and northeast. Although classified as low intensity and short duration, with a peak between November-December, this year's La Nina has been altering rainfall patterns in Brazil and is expected to last until early 2026. The trend is that the country will resume its usual climate patterns as of February.

2025-26 soy crop should maintain record

But Brazil is still on track to produce a record amount of oilseed despite delays to the 2025-26 soybean planting. Although irregular rainfall at the beginning of the season delayed planting in major producing states, the return of regular rainfall should compensate losses caused by a possible drought in southern Rio Grande do Sul state.

Even with Conab's third estimate still forecasting a record harvest of 177.1mn t, 3.3pc above the the 2024-25 cycle, the forecast is lower than the 177.6mn t in Conab's first projection. The drop is a result of lower estimates for nationally planted area, which fell to 48.9mn ha in the third estimate from 49.1mn ha in the first.

By Sofia Zizza

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25/12/19

Argentina wheat yields rise, low protein confirmed

Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Argentina's record-breaking wheat yields this year are pushing estimates for the production even higher, though lower-than-normal protein levels have also been confirmed. The Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (SAGyP) raised its estimate for wheat production for the 2025-26 marketing year to 26.8mn metric tonnes (t) from its November forecast of 24.7mn t. The previous record was 22.15mn t, set in 2021-22, according to SAGyP. The increased production expectations came despite SAGyP trimming its estimate for area planted to 6.8mn hectares (ha) (68,000km²) from 6.9mn ha in November. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bage) also raised its estimate this week to 27.1mn t from the 25.5mn t it forecast at the end of November. Bage's estimate for the previous record is 22.4mn t, also set in 2021-22. SAGyP and Bage's revisions follow a similar action by the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) last week, who raised its estimate for the 2025-26 wheat crop to 27.7mn t from its November forecast of 24.5mn t. While these groups usually provide different figures for Argentina's production, a unanimous increase of the three projections all but ensures Aregntina's record wheat crop this year. Reports this week also confirmed expectations of low protein levels for the record crop. Laboratories associated with BCR and the Bahia Blanca Grain and Products Exchange (BCP) both reported average protein levels below 10pc in wheat harvested in their regions. The average protein level across 28 years of data in the BCP's region was 11pc. Corn, soybeans supported by rains The steady rains that boosted wheat yields have also provided good soil moisture levels for Argentina's corn and soybean crops. Corn planting advanced by more than 10 points in the week through 17 December to nearly 70pc complete, Bage said. Soil moisture levels were adequate to optimal in 93pc of the area planted, and 88pc of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition. Rains last week in Argentina's so-called core agricultural region replenished soil moisture in many areas, though corn planted in parts of Santa Fe province need more rain to develop well, BCR said. SAGyP raised its estimate of the area planted with corn to 10.5mn ha from the 10.3mn ha in November. Soybean planting also advanced in the week through 17 December by 8.7 percentage points to more than 67pc finished, Bage said. Soil moisture levels were adequate to optimal for nearly 93pc of the area planted and 93pc of the crop was in good to excellent condition. Barley acres trimmed Argentina's barley harvest continued in the week, surpassing 40pc complete, SAGyP said. SAGyP trimmed its estimate of the area planted to 1.4mn ha from the 1.45mn ha in November and as a result cut its forecast for production to 5.6mn t from 5.8mn t. By Jeffrey T. Lewis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

France raises barley export estimates, tweaks wheat

25/12/19

France raises barley export estimates, tweaks wheat

Paris, 19 December (Argus) — The outlook for French wheat exports to countries outside of the EU this marketing year fell in the latest report from agricultural and sea products agency FranceAgriMer (FAM), but projections for barley exports to non-EU members rose. Barley exports are projected at 6.1mn t in 2025-26 (July-June) in FAM's December report, up by 2pc on the previous estimate but still the second-smallest amount since 2020-21. The projection includes 3.4mn t for non-EU markets, reflecting a 150,000t rise since FAM's estimates last month. FAM projects France's wheat exports (excluding durum) for the 2025-26 marketing year at 15.1mn t, broadly in line with its estimate last month but reflecting a shift of 250,000t of wheat from non-EU destinations to exports within the bloc. This puts exports to the non-EU market at 7.6mn t, more than double the previous year but still failing to recover to exports of just over 10mn t in 2022-23 and 2023-24. Rebound in winter-planted areas for 2026 crop French producers have had relatively favourable conditions for winter crop planting, with wheat, barley and rapeseed areas all set to rise on the year ahead of the 2026 harvest, according to the agriculture ministry. The ministry in its December report made the following projections of areas for the 2026 crop: Wheat (excluding durum) at 4.56mn hectares (ha), up by 2pc on the year but just below the average for the crops in 2021-25 Durum wheat at 199,000 ha, up by 1pc on the year but 15pc below the past five-year average Barley at 1.23mn ha, up by 3pc on the year but 2pc below the five-year average Rapeseed at 1.33mn ha, up by over 6pc on the year and by more than 9pc on the five-year average French producers had almost finished wheat planting as of 1 December, ahead of schedule, with crop development further along and conditions better than at the same point last year. Barley planting was slightly behind but planting conditions were better, compared with the previous year's crop. Higher yields than expected for 2025 corn France's 2025 corn harvest at 13.6mn t is down by 8pc on the year but broadly in line with the average in 2020-24. This restores a more positive outlook the crop after the ministry last month cut its estimate , citing the effects of hot and dry summer weather on yields. By Claudia Jackson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Amsul to steer Brazil’s N imports in 2026

25/12/19

Viewpoint: Amsul to steer Brazil’s N imports in 2026

London, 19 December (Argus) — Ammonium sulphate imports will continue to match urea imports in Brazil next year, as high urea prices and increased availability of amsul have been steadily leading farmers away from the former and towards the latter. Brazil's urea imports have historically been 2mn-3mn t/yr higher than its amsul imports, but urea's lead has eroded as amsul has become more affordable for farmers. Amsul is also more easily available and has less volatile pricing. Brazil's amsul imports almost tripled over 2018-24, rising to more than 6mn t/yr, while urea imports increased by almost 2mn t/yr to around 8mn t/yr over the same period. Argus- assessed amsul prices averaged $178/t cfr over August-November, which is when Brazil does its lion's share of its amsul buying, in line with the same period last year. Amsul prices averaged $244/t cfr over August-November 2020-24. Brazil imported nearly equal volumes of urea and amsul in January-November this year, at around 6.7mn t of each product, trade data show. Going into 2026, Brazil will maintain its position as the only market capable of absorbing leftover amsul in the market, but Chinese output will probably fall next year, which could compensate for some Chinese supplies being redirected to Brazil and away from other regions. Mexico re-imposed an $181/t import duty on Chinese amsul on 25 November. The onset of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism from 1 January may keep European buyers away from Chinese imports, at least in the first quarter. Depending on the specifics of the regulation, some Chinese amsul producers may be rendered uncompetitive in the European market. Meanwhile, the Chinese caprolactam-grade amsul industry is likely to adopt a more "self-disciplined" strategy next year, keeping operating rates below 80pc and being more cautious to commit to contracts of affreightment. Most compacted amsul shipments from China to Brazil are covered by contracts of affreightment, which can lead to a build-up of unsold amsul in Brazil during the peak season, which may pressure equivalent urea purchases or offers. Buyers usually expect the price per nitrogen unit to be lower in amsul than urea, as amsul requires additional logistical and operational costs to bring the fertilizer to the fields and to apply. Twice the volume of amsul is required compared with urea for an equivalent amount of nitrogen. Affordability has been a key concern globally this year, with record highs for urea prices. Brazil is no exception, with the Argus nitrogen affordability index for Brazil averaging 0.87 over January-November, compared with 1.05 in the past four years. The lower the index, the worse fertilizer affordability is for farmers against their crop sales, making lower-cost nitrogen sources such as amsul more attractive. Weather conditions also affect urea-amsul substitution. Amsul is less volatile than urea, with the latter losing its nitrogen content easily during heatwaves or period of heavy rainfall, reducing the amount of nutrient available for the crop. Amsul can be stored more easily for long periods in warehouses compared with urea, which is more sensitive to heat. Availability and pricing are important considerations but there are a few barriers to amsul increasing its market share against urea. Corn is the main crop that can substitute urea with amsul. But falling corn prices are discouraging farmers from investing in the crop. Using more amsul over a long period can change the acid-to-alkaline balance of the soil, hampering yields, market participants said. The extent to which amsul can be successfully substituted depends on the region, the soil specifications in each field and which other fertilizers are being combined with it in NPK blends. Brazil can successfully swap amsul for urea as a raw material for most blends, but not those with single super phosphate, as the combined sulphur content would be too high. The availability of suitable trucks has also been a concern this year, preventing inland amsul transport. Record grain exports will continue to compete with fertilizer imports for trucks at Brazilian ports in 2026, meaning urea will be easier to transport as half as much is needed compared with amsul. Lastly, Brazil's fertilizer storage capacity is small and fertilizers compete with agricultural products for warehouse space, preventing large volumes being imported. By Upasruti Biswas, Gisele Augusto and Bruno Castro Brazil's amsul vs. urea imports mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank

25/12/19

Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank

Dalby, 19 December (Argus) — Global beef production will decline in 2026, marking the first contraction in animal protein output in six years, according to the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026 by Netherlands-based investment bank Rabobank. Herd rebuilding in North America and Brazil, combined with structural adjustments in China, will tighten supply and keep prices firm across major markets, according to the report. North America Beef cattle numbers in the US and Canada fell for six straight years in 2020-25, but stronger profitability is slowing liquidation and supporting herd rebuilding. US beef cow slaughter dropped by 19pc on the year in 2025, with the culling rate projected at 8.5pc for 2026, below the long-term average. Canada is also stabilising its herd, while Mexico faces supply constraints from disease-related import restrictions. Per capita beef supplies will likely fall by 6pc from 2020 highs, maintaining upward pressure on prices. Feeder cattle prices rose by 26pc in the US and 28pc in Canada in 2025, with further increases likely in 2026, according to Rabobank. North American imports have narrowed the supply gap, but trade tensions may cap volumes. Exports from the region will likely decline because domestic demand remains strong. Brazil and Argentina Brazilian beef production will likely fall by 5-6pc in 2026 to 10.5mn t because producers may retain cattle to rebuild herds. But exports will likely hit a record 4.4mn t because of strong global demand, a weak Brazilian real and reduced competition from other suppliers, despite lower output. China is set to remain Brazil's largest buyer, while trade diversification targets Mexico and other markets. Domestic consumption will likely drop by up to 9pc because high prices are pushing consumers toward cheaper proteins. Argentina faces similar dynamics. Production is expected to hold steady at 3.23mn t, but exports will likely reach the second-highest level on record at 880,000t, because of competitive pricing and strong demand from China, the US and EU. Local consumption will likely fall by 4pc on the back of an accelerating shift to poultry and pork. China China's beef production rose in early 2025 because of herd liquidation but will likely decline slightly in 2026 due to shrinking inventories. Beef prices will rise because of tighter supply, while the country's imports may ease by 2-3pc because of global supply constraints and higher prices. Imports account for 30pc of China's total supply. Meanwhile, retail demand remains resilient, with growth in online channels, but food service recovery will be modest. Australia and New Zealand Australian beef production will remain near record highs at 2.85mn t in 2026, supported by large cattle inventories and strong export demand from the US, Japan, South Korea and China. Prices are expected to hold firm, with the National Young Cattle Indicator forecast at A$4.30-4.80/kg ($2.84-3.17/kg). New Zealand beef output will recover gradually. The cattle population is projected to rise by 3pc and export prices are forecast to stay 15pc above the five-year average in 2026. By Amy Phillips Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian local urea sales on track for record in December

25/12/18

Indian local urea sales on track for record in December

Amsterdam, 18 December (Argus) — Indian urea sales to end-users could reach close to 6mn t this month, which would set a fresh record for offtake in any month. It has been a strong start to sales so far in December, in what typically marks the peak consumption month for the winter rabi season. Domestic urea production is relatively stable at the equivalent of 2.6mn t/month, latest provisional data indicate. Urea sales were 5.2mn t in December 2024. The highest amount sold in any month on record was 5.4mn t in July this year . The country's urea stocks were around 6.3mn t in mid-December, down from 7.1mn t at the start of the month , the data show. The strong sales figures this month are likely to be the key driver behind Indian importer and supplier NFL's earlier-than-expected tender issuance on Tuesday , closing on 2 January and seeking 1.5mn t of urea for shipment up to 20 February. India is typically the largest urea importer, and its regular state-backed tenders are closely watched in the international urea market. The country has bought 9.23mn t of urea this calendar year through tenders. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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