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Weak demand keeps US N220 below N100 in 2025

  • : Oil products
  • 25/12/29

US N220 base oil held a discount to N100 base oil for the entirety of 2025, marking the first time mid-viscosity grades have averaged below light-viscosity grades for a full year.

Weaker demand for mid-viscosity grades used in trucking and agriculture pushed their prices to a discount to lighter grades starting in July 2024, with the discount holding since then.

The Argus US Group II N220 domestic spot price averaged a discount of 30¢/USG to N100 in 2025. The two grades averaged at parity in 2024.

N220 in 2019 averaged a premium of 6¢/USG to N100, but lockdowns during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 resulted in a significant drop in demand for N220. Demand from industrial and agricultural sectors has fallen further since the pandemic.

The weekly average N200 spot price fell by 54¢/USG in 2025 from a year prior. The N100 spot price fell by 25¢/USG.

Group II N220 demand has weakened in the past two years because of softer demand from the heavy-duty engine oil (HDEO) market and inconsistent demand from the agricultural sector. HDEO demand is closely tied to trucking activity, which is declining because of growing economic weakness in the US. Agricultural activity has also slowed because of reduced exports from the US for several key crops.

The spread change is mostly attributed to lower N220 demand, but some refiners also reduced their output of N100 in 2024-25, tightening spot supplies of the grade. Multiple US producers have prioritized Group III production starting in 2023. This caused a yield loss on Group II light grades in particular and elevated the spot price compared to N200. Group II N100 supplies are starting to increase, but the initial yield loss from Group III production is keeping spot volumes more limited.

The oversupply of N220 is expected to continue into 2026 because of a lack of demand growth in its key sectors. Some market participants are expecting that there will be more length on N100, so the spread will likely narrow.

Additionally, US refiners are not seeing increased opportunities to export N200 at higher prices because of global oversupply of Group II base oils. This oversupply on the global market is expected to remain throughout 2026.


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