Viewpoint: Rising Guyanese crude flows open new markets

: Crude oil
26/01/02

Increasing Guyanese crude production in the second half of 2025 has contributed to wider discounts against North Sea Dated and an expansion of destinations for the South American grade, especially to Asia-Pacific markets.

In 2024, no Guyanese cargoes headed to Asia, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa data, compared with 24 cargoes in 2025, of which 13 were in the second half of the year. Europe remains Guyana's main export destination, receiving about 60pc of all exports, followed by Central and North America with 25pc of exports combined.

Medium sweet Liza, Unity Gold and Payara Gold prices dropped from an overall 98¢/bl premium to North Sea Dated in the first half of 2025 to a 33¢/bl discount against the benchmark in the second half of the year. In late November, those prices reached discounts of between $2.80-$3/bl to Dated, their widest discounts since Argus launched Guyanese assessments in February 2024.

In August, Guyana started to produce its new medium sweet Golden Arrowhead grade at a time when the European market was already looking well supplied. Scheduled exports then jumped from 709,000 b/d in July to over 860,000 b/d in September and to an expected record-high 964,000 b/d for February 2026, according to loading programs seen by Argus.

This has led sellersto lower prices in order to compete with other similar-quality alternatives available to European refiners, such as Norwegian medium sour Johan Sverdrup, Brazilian medium sweet Buzios, and a wide range of light and medium west African crudes.

Falling Guyanese prices in the second half of 2025 opened the arbitrage to Asian markets, such as China and India, as Asian buyers tend to only look for Guyanese supplies when discounts are below $2.50/bl to Dated.

Flows to Asia increase

Chinese sellers have started to buy Guyanese crudes regularly since the end of September, securing one or two cargoes every month, usually closer to the end of the loading program when prices are generally lower.

Indian buyers also opted for Guyanese grades in November, when the medium sweet grades were cheaper compared with their usual west African supplies and as US sanctions against Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil, announced in late October, limited the country's intake of Russian supply.

With restriction for loading of very large crude carriers (VLCC) in the winter months lifted by Guyana since mid-2025, Asian buyers could also benefit from better freight economics with larger vessels. However, a hike in VLCC prices since the start of September, and especially since the start of November, have capped a possible increase in voyages to the region.

The US market has also increased its intake of Guyanese crudes, especially at the Gulf coast this year. The US received about 20pc of all Guyanese exports in 2025, according to Vortexa data. Of that supply, 60pc headed to the US west coast, while 37pc went to the US Gulf coast, compared to 75pc and 21pc, respectively, in 2024.

The increase came as Chevron completed its acquisition of US independent Hess, giving the major a stake in Guyana's crude exploration consortium.

Regional supplies rise

Guyanese output is set to rise further in 2026 as the Uaru project is expected to be commissioned, bringing 250,000 b/d more supply to the market. Guyana expects to produce 1.4mn b/d of crude by 2027 and around 1.7mn b/d by 2030.

Rising Guyanese production will join growing output from multiple South American countries. Brazil reached 4mn b/d of crude production in October, according to hydrocarbon regulator ANP, boosted by output from the prolific pre-salt fields, which now account for 81.4pc of the country's total crude and gas production.

Brazil's most exported grades are medium sweet Tupi, Buzios and Mero, all of which compete directly with Guyanese grades in Europe. With sellers trying to reach new markets, Guyanese crudes could also compete with Brazilian grades in Asia-Pacific.

Meanwhile, Argentina aims to increase its crude production to 1.5mn b/d in 2030 from 800,000 b/d currently, led by rising light sweet Medanito output.

Despite its lighter quality, price trends suggest that Medanito may already compete with Guyanese grades in some markets, such as the US west coast. And Argentinian sellers also aim to increase their exports to Asia-Pacific markets over time.

As a result, weakening Guyanese crude prices in the second half of 2025 may be a preview of price trends in the coming months, given the increase in production of light and medium Latin American grades.

By João Scheller

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26/01/02

UK offshore faces deeper consolidation

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India defers upstream hopes into 2026

26/01/02

India defers upstream hopes into 2026

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Venezuela's Maduro offers talks, oil deal with US

26/01/02

Venezuela's Maduro offers talks, oil deal with US

Caracas, 2 January (Argus) — Venezuela president Nicolas Maduro asked for dialogue with US president Donald Trump whenever and wherever after the US has continued to increase military pressure on his government. The call comes days after Trump said the US used drones to destroy a dock in Venezuela allegedly used in drug shipments and after it has fatally struck boats offshore of Venezuela and seized oil tankers. The US said it destroyed an additional five alleged narco-boats offshore of Venezuela in the last three days of December, after some 27 previous attacks. He pleaded for dialogue with Trump "whenever you want, wherever you want and in any form you want", this time offering to give Venezuelan oil to US companies "just like we are doing with Chevron", Maduro said during an hour-long interview with academic Ignacio Ramonet, released on Thursday. Chevron operates in Venezuela with state-owned PdV under a waiver from US sanctions. It imported about 120,000 b/d of crude from Venezuela to the US in December, based on data from Kpler ship tracking. That has fallen from the about 200,000 b/d Chevron was importing early in 2025 before its previous waiver expired in May, later replaced with a modified waiver. The US began to build up about 10pc of its naval force in the Caribbean offshore of Venezuela from early September, which Trump says is to fight illegal drugs. Maduro claims the US is trying to force him from office. The US accuses him of drug trafficking, money laundering and human rights violations. Maduro has alternated between defiance and pleading with Trump for talks. During the interview delivered while Maduro appears to drive a SUV around the capital of Caracas, a red baseball cap similar to those worn by Trump and his supporters was displayed on the back seat, inscribed with "No War, Yes Peace". On 28 December Maduro compared Trump to "King Herod" from the Bible, ahead of the most recent US attacks on boats. Maduro since 25 December has released close to 200 political prisoners, the government and non-governmental agencies have said. During the interview Maduro also said the Venezuelan economy grew by 9pc in 2025 and was going to grow by the same amount in 2026. The UN's economic commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Cepal, has said that Venezuela's economy grew by 6.5pc in 2025 and projected last week that it will grow by about 3pc in 2026. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US sanctions more oil tankers tied to Venezuela

25/12/31

US sanctions more oil tankers tied to Venezuela

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Viewpoint: Ample supply to weigh on US Gulf sour crudes

25/12/31

Viewpoint: Ample supply to weigh on US Gulf sour crudes

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