Ice gasoil futures and backwardation at eight-month low

: Oil products
26/01/08

Front-month Ice gasoil futures and the time spread between the front-month and second-month contracts both fell to the lowest in eight months at Wednesday's close, as the European diesel market enters its seasonally lowest period of demand.

Ice January gasoil futures fell by $13.25/t on the day to $601/t on Wednesday, the lowest settlement price for the front-month contract since 30 May 2025.

The January futures settled at a 50¢/t premium to the second-month February futures, the narrowest since 9 May. When prompt prices are greater than forward prices, it is known as backwardation.

The outright value of the front-month contract and the backwardated futures structure peaked in mid-November, when supply was tightened by a mixture of low amounts on the water heading to Europe and sanctions-related disruption to supply. European imports have since recovered to higher levels.

But the main driver behind the falling outright values and narrowing structure is probably seasonally weak demand. January and February are normally the weakest months for European road fuel consumption. EU diesel deliveries in January and February 2025 were around 5pc below those in December 2024, and almost 10pc lower than any of the other non-winter months in 2024, Eurostat data show.

European diesel demand faces further pressure this year from Germany's adoption of the EU's Renewable Energies Directive (RED III), which will adjust the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quota and abolish double counting of advanced fuels. To reach the adjusted GHG quota, refineries will probably increase the biofuel content blended with diesel, reducing demand for the latter. Argus estimates at least 1mn t of fossil road fuel demand will be substituted by HVO in Germany this year, with most of that diesel.

A disconnect between diesel prices and fundamentals has continued into this year, with the market mostly driven by geopolitical news and sentiment, according to a European trader. That could explain why the January futures' premium against the February contract has narrowed even with EU sanctions coming into force on 21 January that will will remove from the European market Indian and Turkish diesel refined from Russian crude, and with independent stocks of diesel and other gasoil at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub at a four-and-a-half-month low in the week to 31 December, according to consultancy Insights Global.

By Josh Michalowski

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26/01/08

Mexico inflation slows to 3.7pc in Dec

Mexico City, 8 January (Argus) — Mexico's inflation decelerated to an annual 3.69pc in December, the lowest reading for the month since 2020, mainly driven by slowing agriculture and energy prices, alongside some easing in core inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) eased from 3.80pc in November, statistics agency Inegi said Thursday, after accelerating from 3.57pc in October. Inflation has trended higher since July, when it stood at 3.51pc — the lowest annual headline reading since December 2020. The annual figure was down from 4.21pc in December 2024 and marked the lowest year-end reading since 3.15pc in December 2020. The result came in below the 3.6pc forecast by Mexican bank Banamex, "interrupting the upward trend recorded since August, which we anticipate will resume in January." The bank added that full-year inflation for 2025 was below the historical average of 4.4pc. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 4.33pc in December from 4.43pc in November, after accelerating from 4.28pc in October. This marked an eighth consecutive month above 4pc — the upper bound of the central bank's target range. Within core inflation, consumer goods eased to 4.30pc from 4.37pc in November, while services slowed to 4.35pc in December from 4.49pc. Among the largest contributors to CPI in December, weighted by Inegi, were tourism-related components, particularly airfare and long-distance bus fares ahead of the holiday season. Non-core inflation decelerated to 1.61pc in December from 1.73pc in November, remaining below 2pc in five of the past six months. Agriculture prices — especially fruits and vegetables — have been subdued this year by favorable weather conditions, although pressures are beginning to build. Annual inflation for fruits and vegetables contracted by 5.62pc in December, compared with contractions of 7.79pc in November and 10.27pc in October. The segment has faced rising inflationary pressure, Mexican bank Banorte said, driven by extreme rainfall in several states in November and nationwide roadblocks organized by freight truck associations in December. Energy price inflation slowed to 0.18pc in December from 0.54pc in October and 1.07pc in September. Inflation in the segment has remained contained since President Claudia Sheinbaum in early September renewed an agreement with fuel retailers to maintain a voluntary regular gasoline price cap of Ps24/l ($5.05/USG) for six months. Looking ahead, Banamex expects an increase in merchandise inflation at the start of 2026 due to higher tariffs and taxes, forecasting headline and core inflation to end 2026 at 4.3pc and 4.2pc, respectively. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

European diesel market structure flips to contango

26/01/08

European diesel market structure flips to contango

London, 8 January (Argus) — The European diesel market has shifted into a contango structure for the first time in over a year, indicating that supply in the market is currently ample during a seasonally weak period for demand. Front-month Ice January gasoil futures fell to a 25¢/t discount to the second-month February futures by the market close today, falling from a 50¢/t premium the day before. The European diesel market was last in contango — where prompt prices are lower than forward prices — in October 2024. The backwardated structure in futures — where prompt prices are higher than forward prices — narrowed steadily from early December, after reaching a peak in mid-November. Strong supply has weighed on the value of front-month futures this year, particularly from high imports expected from the US, according to one European analyst. Around 450,000t of diesel and other gasoil departed the US for Europe in the week to 2 January, and a further 525,000t has departed since then, according to Vortexa. Both volumes were the highest on the route since June last year. About 1.86mn t unloaded in the EU and UK from the Middle East in December, a seven-month high. The well-supplied market has come at a seasonally low period for regional diesel demand — January and February are normally the weakest months for European road fuel demand. January futures expire on 12 January, which may have also driven the front-month value down, according to a European trader. Traders closing their long positions in January futures before expiry would weigh on prices. The second-month and third-month futures remain backwardated, with February futures settling at a $2.50/t premium to March. Current cold weather in Europe — forecast to get colder still — should provide some support for gasoil futures. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Inverkehrbringer rechnen für CO2-Abgabe mit Höchstpreis

26/01/08

Inverkehrbringer rechnen für CO2-Abgabe mit Höchstpreis

Hamburg, 8 January (Argus) — Die vor Jahreswechsel erwarteten Preisaufschläge für Heizöl, Diesel und E5-Benzin haben sich im Januar weitgehend bestätigt. Grund für den Preisanstieg im Januar sind vor allem die Erhöhung der CO2-Bepreisung und THG-Erfüllungskosten. Für Heizöl liegen die tatsächlichen Aufschläge gegenüber Dezemberware im Bundesschnitt bei knapp 3 €/100l. Damit bewegen sich die Preise auf dem Niveau der von Argus berechneten Aufschläge und unterhalb der Höchstwerte von 4,50 €/100l, die einzelne Marktteilnehmer im Dezember noch in Aussicht gestellt hatten. Dieser Anstieg ist darin begründet, dass die CO2-Bepreisung zum Jahreswechsel von einem Festpreismodell von jeweils 55 €/tCO2e zu einem Auktionsmodell wechselt, bei dem der Preis einer Emissionsberechtigung zwischen 55 € und 65 € schwanken kann. Eine Emissionsberechtigung entspricht dabei einer Tonne CO2-Äquivalent. Mehrere Inverkehrbringer berichten allerdings gegenüber Argus, dass sie für die CO2-Komponente aktuell 68 €/tCO2e einpreisen. Dies liegt daran, dass Unternehmen, die bei den Auktionen leer ausgehen, nachträglich Emissionsberechtigungen zum Festpreis von 68 €/tCO2e nachkaufen können, um Strafzahlungen zu vermeiden. Auch B7-Diesel verteuerte sich zum Jahresbeginn und wird rund 11,30 €/100l teurer gehandelt als im Dezember. Dieser Anstieg bleibt somit unter den Prämien von bis zu 17 €/100l, welche mehrere Händler zum Jahresende an Argus gemeldet haben. Dieser Anstieg ist neben höheren CO2-Kosten im Rahmen des neuen Auktionsmodells vor allem auf eine Zunahme der THG-Erfüllungskosten zurückzuführen. So berichtet etwa ein Inverkehrbringer, die THG-Erfüllungskosten für B7-Diesel im Januar bis zu 12 €/100l höher, als noch im Dezember. Marktteilnehmer waren sich bis zum Kabinettsbeschluss am 10. Dezember uneins, wie die Rahmenbedingungen zur Erfüllung der THG-Quote tatsächlich ausgestaltet werden. Insbesondere die Unklarheit im Bezug auf die Zukunft der Doppelanrechnung erklärt die hohen Preisspannen im Dezember bei den Aufschlägen für Diesel zur Abholung im Januar. Von Marcel Pott Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Nachfrageanstieg treibt THG-Zertifikatspreise

26/01/08

Nachfrageanstieg treibt THG-Zertifikatspreise

Hamburg, 8 January (Argus) — Die Preise für Zertifikate zur Erfüllung der Treibhausgasminderungsquote steigen seit Jahresbeginn an. Hintergrund ist die Rückkehr großer Verpflichteter auf den Markt. Seit dem 2. Januar ist der Preis für THG-Zertifikate der Kategorie "Andere" für das Verpflichtungsjahr 2026 um über 75 €/t CO2e angestiegen und hat damit die Marke von 500 €/tCO2e überschritten. Zuvor stieg der Preis zum Jahreswechsel bereits um fast 200 €/t CO2e, da durch Änderungen der jeweils gültigen Zertifikate, und insbesondere durch die Abschaffung der Doppelanrechnung, die Zertifikate für 2026 deutlich höher gehandelt werden, als jene für 2025. Dass der Preis auch nach dem Jahreswechsel weiter anstieg liegt daran, dass seit dem 5. Januar wieder mehr Käufer — insbesondere große verpflichtete Unternehmen wie Ölkonzerne — am Markt aktiv sind, während das Angebot begrenzt ist. Manche Marktteilnehmer erwarten, dass der Preis sich weiter der Pönale von 600 €/tCO2e annähern wird. Diese wird fällig, sollten verpflichtete Unternehmen nicht genügend THG-Minderungen erzielen, um die Quote zu erfüllen. Jedoch dämpfen sinkende HVO-Prämien den weiteren Anstieg der Preise für THG-Zertifikate, da niedrigere Biokraftstoffpreise die Erfüllungskosten der THG-Quote senken. HVO ist in der Regel eine der teuersten Erfüllungsoptionen, daher ist es unwahrscheinlich, dass der Preis für THG-Zertifikate die Erfüllungskosten durch HVO übersteigen wird. Von Max Steinhau Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Carbon capture can raise GHG savings potential: GCMD

26/01/08

Carbon capture can raise GHG savings potential: GCMD

Singapore, 8 January (Argus) — On-board carbon capture and storage (OCCS), coupled with CO2 utilisation in the form of downstream product displacement, can outperform permanent storage in life cycle assessment (LCA), a study by the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD) explained. OCCS can be an effective mid-term option for shipping to decarbonise and to reduce "tank-to-wake" emissions, with most ships still expected to be operating on conventional fuels. The study, Project Captured, used data from the world's first ship-to-ship (STS) offloading of liquefied CO2 captured on board a ship with an OCCS system. The liquefied CO2 would eventually be transported overland to be used downstream as industry feedstock. Without a waste heat recovery system (WHRS), this pilot achieved 7.9pc greenhouse gas (GHG) savings with a 10.7pc onboard capture rate, resulting in 582 kg of CO2 equivalent (kgCO2e) per tonne of CO2 captured and offloaded. GHG savings was equal to 0.84t of CO2 emission avoided per tonne of CO2 captured and offloaded. Another 375 kgCO2e/t of CO2 captured and offloaded was introduced from offloading and transport, particularly from truck transport of more than 2,200km, which contributed to half of the captured emissions at 194 kgCO2e/t. Hose purging before and after offloading resulted in the second-highest CO2 emissions of 99 kgCO2e/t, which was 26pc of transport emissions. In the real-life pilot, industry utilisation of captured CO2 was key in realising emissions savings. Emissions captured through the production of post-carbonated slag (PCS) and precipitated calcium carbonate (PCC) stood at 951 kgCO2e/t. Optimised value chains Total value-chain GHG savings can rise to 17.8pc, when inefficiencies are cut by installing a WHRS, using a pipeline to transport CO2, and aligning offloaded CO2 volume and tank capacity, as demonstrated in the study's hypothetical scenarios with optimised value chains. Savings are equivalent to about 2t of CO2 reduced per tonne or CO2 captured and offloaded from the ship. The fuel penalty also fell from 5pc to 1.5pc, compared with a baseline scenario of the ship operating without OCCS. Another key finding reflected that the usage of CO2 in a carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) value chain can avoid more GHG emissions, compared to permanent storage in the carbon capture and storage (CCS) pathway. If shipowners can optimise the CCU pathway, higher GHG savings of 68-71pc are possible, depending on whether the PCS output is used for steel sintering or concrete production. The GHG savings from the utilisation of CO2 is significantly higher than a 21pc emissions savings measured in the CCS pathway, where captured CO2 was permanently stored. "Project Captured shows that onboard carbon capture, when thoughtfully integrated with utilisation pathways, can deliver real emissions reductions today while we continue to scale up low- and zero-carbon fuels," said GCMD's chief executive officer, Lynn Loo. "If our frameworks continue to ignore avoided emissions and displaced carbon, we risk disincentivising investments in solutions that can meaningfully bend the emissions curve," said Loo, underscoring the importance of how GHG reductions are measured and accounted for. Current GHG accounting methods by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) give shipowners limited incentive to invest in OCCS, since formal frameworks do not account for avoided GHG emissions in the case where highly emissive products are displaced by captured CO2 equivalents. The study suggests that future LCA guidelines by the IMO should address cross-sector allocation of both emissions and avoided emissions, to prevent double counting and encourage more shipowners to invest in OCCS. More countries are making progress in the final utilisation and storage of CO2. Indonesia intends to support carbon utilisation initiatives , and Denmark has awarded the first licence of permanent CO2 storage in the country. Japanese shipping firms like Kline have also received more liquefied CO2 carriers to meet the growing demand for carbon capture projects. By Cassia Teo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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