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Trump open to talks over Greenland's future

  • : Crude oil
  • 26/01/21

US president Donald Trump said Wednesday he would be open to negotiations over his plans to annex Denmark's Greenland territory and appeared to walk back his previous threat to use military force.

"I don't want to use force," Trump said in a rambling speech at the Davos Economic forum in Switzerland. "I won't use force."

Trump defended his designs on Greenland — which he referred to as a "piece of ice" and kept mistakenly calling "Iceland" — by the previous expansion of the US in North America and by the European colonial expansion globally. "There's nothing wrong with it," he said.

Trump's threats to annex Greenland and to impose tariffs on European countries that pushed back against his plans sent US stock and financial markets lower on Tuesday, out of concern that a tariff war may erupt between the US and the EU.

Trump said that the US took over Greenland to defend it against Nazi Germany during World War 2 and that it was "stupid" to return it to Denmark.

The US demands "immediate negotiations" about acquiring Greenland, Trump said.

Trump is scheduled to meet with UK and EU leaders at Davos later on Wednesday.

Trump addressed the Davos forum with his usual spin of what he sees as great accomplishments during his first year back at the White House, with little to no reaction from the audience.

The speech included his usual barbs aimed at European countries' energy policies, for not allowing oil exploration in the North Sea and building "windmills all over Europe". Trump praised China for not having "a single windmill", even though Chinese investment in solar and wind energy is significantly higher than in the rest of the world combined.

The US military operation to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro will turn Venezuela into a booming oil producer, Trump said, adding that "every major oil company is coming in with us".

While Chevron, Spain's Repsol and Italy's Eni said they could expand their current operations in Venezuela, ExxonMobil chief executive Darren Woods said the country's legal and business environment makes it "uninvestible".

Trump could meet Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodriguez on the sidelines of the Davos forum, the White House said.

By Haik Gugarats

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26/01/21

Oil supply buffers cushion geopolitical risk: IEA

Oil supply buffers cushion geopolitical risk: IEA

London, 21 January (Argus) — Ample global oil supply is allaying concerns about geopolitical risks to oil production and exports in Venezuela, Iran and Russia, the IEA said today. "While it is too early to assess the full implications for oil markets of these latest geopolitical developments, for now, bloated balances provide some comfort to market participants and have kept prices in check," the IEA said. In its first Oil Market Report (OMR) of the year, the IEA said it still sees subdued oil demand growth and a large supply surplus for 2026. The Paris-based watchdog increased its oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by 70,000 b/d to 930,000, driven by higher expectations from Asia-Pacific and Africa. This would see overall demand at 104.98mn b/d. As widely expected, the agency sees relatively weak first quarter year-on-year growth of 840,000 b/d — supported by higher-than-expected heating demand — picking up to around 1mn b/d in the second half. But it said a "significant surplus" is likely to re-emerge in the current quarter as refiners begin maintenance, and said 2026 demand will be "tempered by sub-par global GDP growth, energy efficiency improvements and robust EV sales in some markets." The agency sees global oil supply growing by 2.5mn b/d in 2026. Barring a change in Opec+ production policy and possibly lower output from US shale producers, the supply surplus would be 3.7mn b/d. This would follow a 2.1mn b/d supply surplus in 2025, when the agency said oil demand grew by 850,000 b/d to 104.05mn b/d and supply increased by 3.05mn b/d to 106.19mn b/d. "Last year's surge in trade policy uncertainty and economic risk aversion weighed heavily on commercial activity in emerging economies, causing oil demand to stagnate," the IEA said. The IEA first outlined its 2025 oil demand forecasts in April 2024, when it projected consumption growth of 1.15mn b/d. This time last year it saw annual demand growth of 1.05mn b/d in 2025. The IEA's demand estimates for 2025 remain well below those of Opec , which sees oil consumption up by 1.3mn b/d to 105.14mn b/d. Opec sees oil demand rising by 1.38mn b/d in 2026 and by 1.34mn b/d in 2027. The IEA said global observed stocks rose by 75mn bl, or 2.5mn b/d, in November. It said preliminary data show further builds in December, after China issued new import quotas that had offset steep inventory declines in several Middle East countries at the end of 2025. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Venezuela moves cautiously to court investors

26/01/20
26/01/20

Venezuela moves cautiously to court investors

Caracas, 20 January (Argus) — Venezuela has replaced the controversial head of its investment promotion agency with a US-educated central banker and is eyeing legal reforms to power, oil and mining laws, all while continuing to consolidate power. US-educated Calixto Ortega will leave his post as head of Venezuela's central bank to lead its international investment agency (CIIP), a post previously held by accused money launderer Alex Saab , freed by the US in 2023 as part of a prisoner swap. The role of the agency is unclear as both Venezuelan law and sanctions from the US and other nations have limited international investment there. Ortega has worked as vice president of US refiner Citgo — ultimately owned by Venezuela — and lived in Houston, Texas, from 2009-2014, with degrees from Rice and Columbia universities in the US, according to his online profile. "His designation will allow the continued capture of national and international investment ... in this stage of economic recovery," interim president Delcy Rodriguez said in announcing the appointment Monday. The move follows Rodriguez's proposal to overhaul laws governing the oil, power and mining sectors to make them more attractive for investors, although few details have been released. Trump has called for energy investment in Venezuela in the wake of the US seizure of Rodriguez's predecessor Nicolas Maduro, but some oil companies have expressed reservations after decades of nationalization and insecurity. One pro-Maduro mayor in the coastal city of Lecheria, Anzoategui has offered his region to become the "energy hub" of Venezuela. The state is a top natural gas-producer in Venezuela and hosts part of the massive Jose petrochemical complex, although Lecheria has not traditionally been an energy center. Mayor Manual Ferreira has won his last three elections, but whether the central government will support his proposal is not clear. The proposed lower municipal taxes and other measures are meant to align with Rodriguez's new oil law, Ferreira said. But rather than outreach with regional governments, Rodriguez so far is aggressively centralizing power in her role, one non-governmental organization said, a dynamic that could undermine other investor assurances. She now holds five key positions in Venezuela: president, vice-president, oil minister, head of the Sebin intelligence service and head of governmental audit agency Sunai, the Venezuelan chapter of Transparency International noted. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US aims to contain Greenland fallout on market

26/01/20
26/01/20

US aims to contain Greenland fallout on market

Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is rushing to stave off a potential trade war with Europe and its negative effects on financial markets, as the UK and EU have pushed back on his bid to annex Denmark's Greenland territory. Trump has threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven members of the EU from 1 February, unless they agree to his demand for the US takeover of Greenland. The UK appears to rule out retaliatory measures, but EU leaders will meet on 22 January to agree on the bloc's response. The European parliament is preparing to freeze work on implementing laws for the EU-US trade deal agreed to last summer. US stock and financial markets fell in Tuesday morning sessions. But US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland, urged his EU counterparts to desist from retaliatory measures. He blamed the downward trend in US financial markets on the contagion effect from a sharp fall in Japan's government bond markets on Monday. "I tell everyone, 'sit back, take a deep breath, do not retaliate'", Bessent said at the forum. "The president will be here tomorrow, and he will get his message across." Trump is scheduled to arrive in Davos on Wednesday to address the forum and hold meetings with EU leaders. California governor Gavin Newsom (D), who is also at Davos, on Tuesday urged the European leaders to take a tougher stand against Trump. Newsom said his message to the EU leaders is to "get off your knees and grow a spine," adding that "there's no diplomacy with Donald Trump." The White House has not released any details on how Trump's tariff threat against select EU members will be carried out and whether energy commodities will continue to be exempted from tariffs. So far there are no executive orders from Trump on implementing tariffs starting 1 February. Bessent also defended Trump's designs on Greenland, reiterating the president's argument that the US needs to take over the island's security to prevent Russia and China from attacking it. Bessent asserted that "this has been in the minds of American presidents for more than 150 years". The French foreign ministry on Monday said that the US explanation for needing to annex Greenland is the equivalent of arguing that "if there were a fire someday, firefighters would intervene — so better burn the house now." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Venezuelan crude muddies Canadian butane price outlook

26/01/20
26/01/20

Venezuelan crude muddies Canadian butane price outlook

An influx of Venezuelan oil could weigh on Canadian prices as the country sits on ample stocks of butane, writes Dennis Kovtun Calgary, 20 January (Argus) — The uncertain outlook for western Canadian butane prices at the Edmonton hub this year after a weak 2025 is being further clouded by recent events in Venezuela that could result in more of its heavy crude hitting the global market. Edmonton butane prices averaged 67.60¢/USG last year, down from 82.26¢/USG in 2024 and compared with a five-year average of 88.25¢/USG. The outright drop came as the price declined as a percentage of the calendar month average of Nymex WTI crude (CMA WTI) to 43.7pc from 46.1pc in 2024. Growing supplies pressured values, with Canadian butane production rising to 216,200 b/d (7.3mn t/yr) in January-October compared with 203,400 b/d over the whole of 2024, data from Statistics Canada show. Winter gasoline demand during the fourth quarter was also weaker. This meant butane inventories at Edmonton climbed above levels a year earlier in every month from May 2025, averaging 3.3mn bl (306,000t) in 2025 compared with 2.7mn bl in 2024, data from energy regulator the CER show. Scant indications have emerged on the market this year to suggest Edmonton butane prices are about to recover. The price averaged 61.16¢/USG, or 44.6pc of CMA WTI, over 2-12 January, but prices have fallen to 57.19¢/USG from 68.25¢/USG, and to 41.5pc from 50pc, over the first two weeks of the month. Butane exports are likely to have increased in 2025. Canada shipped an average 59,400 b/d by pipeline, rail and truck to the US over January-October, up from 56,100 b/d for the whole of 2024 and also higher than the five-year average of 52,300 b/d, the latest CER data show — the country currently exports predominantly propane from its seaborne terminals on the Pacific coast. But rising butane exports could not provide enough of a relief valve to offset climbing stocks. The usual seasonal winter increase in butane prices has also not materialised, with the Edmonton value averaging 66.53¢/USG, or 46.8pc of CMA WTI, in the fourth quarter, down from 91.75¢/USG, or 54.5pc, a year earlier. And as the market enters 2026, it is being confronted by geopolitical volatility that is having complex effects on prices. This especially applies to one type of butane consumption in western Canada — as a diluent for heavy crude produced from the country's oil sands. It is reasonable to expect Canadian oil takeaway capacity to rise by 270,000 b/d by 2030, but the potential of more Venezuelan oil hitting the world markets after the US captured President Nicolas Maduro makes more optimistic scenarios of it rising by as much as 820,000 b/d less likely, bank TD Securities analyst Menno Hulshof says. "When you think about consumption of diluent or condensate or butane — maybe that mutes things a little bit there as well," he says. Heavy toll At the same time, more Venezuelan crude production could theoretically provide tailwinds for the butane price should the US begin to export more condensate to Venezuela to be used as diluent for its heavy crude. This would make US condensate more expensive for Canadian importers using it as diluent. Butane could become more attractive, leading to modest growth in buying interest, Hulshof says — provided producers are able to swap condensate with butane. But the outlook on the heavy crude market has become more bearish owing to the possibility of Venezuelan crude playing a larger role and the still-limited egress for Canadian bitumen. Canadian crude and condensate output is forecast to rise to a record 4.85mn b/d in 2026, according to Argus Consulting, but this is only an increase of 1.7pc . Predicting diluent trends, including use of butane, is currently very difficult, Hulshof says. Edmonton price trends will also be significantly influenced by Mont Belvieu EPC butane assessments on the US Gulf coast. Edmonton values typically track Mont Belvieu levels, which have traded lower than in previous years so far this winter as a result of weaker gasoline blending demand and depressed gasoline futures. Edmonton butane price, ratio to crude Edmonton vs Mont Belvieu butane Western Canadian butane stocks Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US private firms on parade for Trump’s Venezuela push

26/01/19
26/01/19

US private firms on parade for Trump’s Venezuela push

New York, 19 January (Argus) — The privately held US oil producers that were most vocal in their support of President Donald Trump's push to rebuild Venezuela's crippled energy infrastructure at a recent White House meeting may struggle to match their initial enthusiasm with firm action. While smaller operators, including wildcatters, went to great lengths to tell Trump how quickly they could make inroads and help to revive the South American nation's ailing oil sector — citing their nimble approach and record of working in other high-risk countries — the reality on the ground may be different. Privately held firms were the biggest group represented among the two dozen or so executives summoned to the White House for talks with Trump on the future of Venezuela's oil industry. But they are likely to face the same challenges as their larger peers, which had made their reservations all too clear. Those concerns surround the lack of a legal and commercial framework as well as an unstable security situation following the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. With the Maduro regime still otherwise largely intact and no change at state-owned oil company PdV, there is "not going to be any change in business practices down there", the University of Houston energy economist Ed Hirs warns. Firms will need assurances about the safety of their workers and equipment before investing. "They need to have a guarantee that they can get their money out," Hirs says. The same obstacles that inform the go-slow approach being taken by some leading US oil companies — most notably major ExxonMobil, which Trump threatened to sideline from his plans following its warning that Venezuela is at present "uninvestible" — could mitigate against any early action. Fellow major Chevron was the sole US company to offer specific pledges to ramp up production at the meeting, but it has first-mover advantage, having stayed in Venezuela when others left almost 20 years ago. Short-term efforts may be limited to preparations to send in teams to assess current infrastructure. Risky business Still, that did not stop independents from assuring Trump they were keen to help bring back Venezuelan oil production, which has slumped by 70pc since the late 1990s. "We are ready to go to Venezuela," Denver-based Armstrong Oil & Gas founder Bill Armstrong said. "It's prime real estate." The firm controls 8mn offshore acres in the Caribbean, adjacent to Venezuela. Aspect Holdings chairman Alex Cranberg told Trump how his company had been an early mover in Iraqi Kurdistan, despite being warned it was not safe to be there at the time — a bet that had paid off. "Venezuela has a tremendous amount of opportunity," Cranberg said. "What you're doing by putting the US in control of the cash flow coming out of the country is giving companies like ours the confidence to say we can kickstart this production." Hilcorp founder Jeff Hildebrand also said he was fully committed and ready to go into Venezuela. And Bryan Sheffield, managing partner of private equity firm Formentera Partners, said: "There is a lot of shale there — a lot of upside." It was left to Harold Hamm, founder of North Dakota-focused Continental Resources and Trump's long-term oil industry confidant, to inject a note of caution. Venezuela "excites me as an explorationist", Hamm told Trump. "It's a very exciting country, a lot of reserves." But he went on to say that there would be challenges involved, although the industry "knows how to handle that". But until there is clarity around contract sanctity and security, few firms may be willing to actually put boots on the ground. "The devil is in the details and the details have yet to be hammered out," Hirs says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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