The expected revival of Venezuelan crude trade following the US' 3 January capture of the country's president Nicolas Maduro is making a slow start. But shipments are starting to increase, with more oil moving to the US Gulf coast and storage locations in the Caribbean, at the expense of buyers in Asia.
Trafigura and Vitol, the trading firms engaged by the US to market 30mn-50mn bl of Venezuelan crude held in storage, have in the past week offered cargoes to the US market at a $9/bl discount to Ice Brent on a delivered basis, and to Chinese buyers at a $5/bl discount to Ice Brent, sources say. Cargoes to Europe were offered at a discount of about $6/bl to Ice Brent on the same basis, they say.
No deals have yet been confirmed, but Vitol has secured the Suezmax Poliegos to load Venezuelan crude from 30 January for delivery to the Mediterranean, according to brokers. Vitol owns and operates the 300,000 b/d Sarroch refinery on the Italian island of Sardinia, the last Mediterranean refinery to take Venezuelan crude in 2025 before the US tightened sanctions on the country.
A number of tankers have loaded or are loading crude at Venezuela's Jose terminal, Argus tracking shows. The Ionic Anassa, an Aframax, loaded 500,000 bl on 22 January and is headed to Freeport, Texas. The Canopus Voyager, another Aframax, loaded a similar amount on 20-21 January and is headed to the US.
The Folegandros, a Suezmax, is in the Atlantic headed towards Venezuela, although its destination is shown as Rotterdam. Broker information indicates that it will load 130,000t of crude, or 1mn bl, at Jose in early February, chartered by Trafigura. The Nissos Koufonissi has no destination but is making a similar voyage, with broker information showing a charter by Trafigura to load 130,000t of crude in February at Jose. Trafigura did not respond to a request for comment.
Non-sanctioned crude shipments from Venezuela this month have gone either to the US Gulf coast or storage in the Caribbean, tanker tracking data indicate, while shipments to Asia-Pacific have dried up almost entirely (see table). Only the Priya is heading to Malaysia after leaving Venezuela on 15 January. The tanker's IMO code refers to the Vesna, which is under western sanctions. The sanctioned tankers Nayara and Jamaica headed to Malaysia and Curacao, respectively, in early January before the US seized Maduro, according to Vortexa.
Venezuela exported 14 crude cargoes on non-sanctioned vessels over 1-21 January, of which 10 headed to the US Gulf coast. The 17 tankers to have loaded in total over 1-21 January are equivalent to around 526,000 b/d of crude exports, down from 590,000 b/d over the same period in December.
Market participants expect Trafigura and Vitol to prioritise exports to the US Gulf coast before offering cargoes elsewhere, most likely India and China, and could soon be loading at least 20 Aframax-sized vessels a month, according to one market source.
Caribbean dream
In the meantime, a lot of Venezuelan crude is heading into Caribbean storage on non-sanctioned vessels. Nearly half of the supply shipped on non-sanctioned tankers this month has headed to Caribbean destinations including Curacao, Aruba and the Bahamas, Vortexa data show, and Vitol appears to be directing at least 10 Venezuelan crude cargoes towards storage in Curacao, market sources say. Shipments to Caribbean destinations in December were lower, according to Vortexa, with 14pc of exports heading to St Lucia and 7pc to Cuba.
Non-sanctioned offers to Asia-Pacific were considered too expensive by Chinese buyers, given competitive prices for similar-quality grades elsewhere in the Americas, such as Canadian and Colombian supply.
| Venezuela crude shipments | ||
| 1-21 Jan | 1-21 Dec | |
| Cargoes | 17 | 14 |
| Volume b/d | 526,000 | 590,000 |
| Destination share, % | ||
| US Gulf coast | 51 | 40 |
| Caribbean | 42 | 23 |
| Asia-Pacific | 7 | 37 |
