European cement prices expected to rise in 2026

: Cement
26/02/10

European cement producers may raise domestic prices this year due to higher imported cement prices and cost pressures related to the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and emissions trading system (ETS).

Some European producers and traders aim to increase cement prices by 10-15pc in 2026 from last year, market participants said at the Intercem conference in Dubai last week. A larger price increase is possible in subsequent years when CBAM costs for imported cement and clinker rise substantially.

EU cement prices were most recently in the mid-to-high $100s/metric tonne (t) on an ex-works or fob basis, depending on the country and destination. CBAM costs for imported cement and clinker from Turkish or Egyptian origins are expected to be about $12-20/t, market participants said, once a supplier's emissions are verified and depending on the supplier's carbon intensity.

With bulk cement prices from Turkey in the mid-to-high $50s/t on an fob basis, and freight costs typically around $15-20/t, this still puts imported cement at a discount. But the high levels of uncertainty on CBAM costs should nevertheless drive more buyers to domestic supplies.

Many EU cement producers rely on imported clinker from non-EU suppliers in the Mediterranean, and those suppliers will "obviously" raise cement prices as clinker costs go up as a result of CBAM, one trader said. But even those cement companies that do not import clinker are unlikely to keep prices steady if their competitors are raising prices because of higher clinker costs, he said.

European cement producers are also facing rising energy and carbon-compliance costs that will likely lead them to raise prices, unless policymakers take steps to address rising costs. In a joint statement released on 2 February, a group of European energy-intensive industries, including cement makers, called on the EU to issue emergency measures, such as suspending further carbon benchmark reductions under the ETS, to avoid a further loss of competitiveness and plant closures.

EU leaders are scheduled to hold an informal meeting on competitiveness on 12 February.

By Alexander Makhlay

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26/02/13

Australia should have CBAM on some commodities: Review

Sydney, 13 February (Argus) — Australia should consider introducing a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), starting with imports of cement and clinker and potentially expanding to products such as hydrogen, steel, and ammonia and derivatives like urea and ammonium phosphate, according to a key report released by the government today. The identified commodities face risk of future carbon leakage from imports, which could lead to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions being relocated from Australia to overseas. The carbon leakage review , led by Australian National University professor Frank Jotzo between July 2023 and March 2025, assessed leakage risks in 2030 for all 75 trade-exposed commodities under Australia's safeguard mechanism across 42 commodity groups. The review was announced as part of the 2023 reform of the safeguard mechanism While current safeguard mechanism settings are effective at mitigating carbon leakage risk in the short- to medium-term, the declining emissions baselines under the scheme could put some of the identified sectors at a "more significant" risk over time, according to the report. Cement and clinker first, others to follow Risks are higher for cement and clinker, and the implementation of a border carbon adjustment for these products "is likely to be simplest," according to the report. Australian production of lime and glass, on the other hand, is only partially covered under the safeguard mechanism, and a CBAM application would face more complexity. Hydrogen, steel, and ammonia and derivatives carry material carbon leakage risks, but feature more complexity with respect to production methods, supply chains, and product diversity. Some of these products are also only partially covered by the safeguard mechanism. The government should also consider potential risks for a second group of commodities, consisting of aluminium and alumina, refined petroleum, and pulp and paper. These products face mixed evidence related to leakage risk indicators and analysis of trade and investment leakage, but the government could assess them in the forthcoming review of the safeguard mechanism scheduled for the July 2026-June 2027 financial year and consider particularly the suitability of arrangements for emissions-intensive trade-exposed activities for all commodities under the scheme. Preference for fees instead of ACCU surrenders The safeguard mechanism covers over 200 individual facilities emitting more than 100,000t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in a compliance year across the oil and gas, mining, manufacturing, transport and waste sectors. Facilities earn Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) if their reported scope 1 emissions fall below their baselines, and must surrender SMCs or Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) if emissions exceed the threshold. If the Australian government decides to pursue a CBAM, it should consider applying liabilities only to scope 1 emissions that exceed the relevant safeguard mechanism baseline at the time of import. The assessment should be based on explicit carbon prices only, and the liability should account for the differences between the effective carbon price paid in the originating country and an Australian benchmark price. While importers could, in principle, clear the liability by paying a fee or surrendering ACCUs, there was "broad support" for the fee option during the consultation, according to the report. Surrendering ACCUs would more closely reflect domestic requirements, but trading in ACCUs has legislative requirements that would have to be met by importers which would require careful consideration, the report warned. The ACCU purchase option would create additional demand for the product, raising prices. But stakeholder feedback "reflected concerns about the potential impact on ACCU supply" if these carbon credit units were used to meet carbon border adjustment liabilities. The government should not consider a carbon border adjustment that provides rebates for exports, as that would be inconsistent with Australia's emissions reduction targets and could raise considerable international trade law concerns. "Rebating emissions obligations to exports would effectively exempt production for export from emissions reductions obligations, running counter to overall policy objectives towards net zero and increasing the required emissions reductions elsewhere in the economy," the report read. Teba provisions could be removed Trade-exposed, baseline-adjusted (Teba) facilities operating in emission-intensive sectors that might face unfair competition from imports from countries with weaker or no emission reduction policies currently benefit from discounted baseline decline rates under the safeguard mechanism. Decline rates can be as low as 2pc for non-manufacturing sectors or 1pc for manufacturing sectors, compared with the standard 4.9pc/yr declining rate until 2030. The Teba provisions for a commodity should be removed once a border carbon adjustment is fully implemented for that commodity, according to the review. Limited impact on downstream activity The report also noted that analysis indicates the impact of a carbon border adjustment on downstream activity, such as construction, would be "very limited". "The review's analysis suggests that the maximum price impacts on final goods that incorporate commodities that may be subject to a border carbon adjustment, such as wind farms, house construction and crops like wheat, would be vanishingly small as a share of product prices," the report said. The government said today it will continue to consult on carbon leakage with affected industries, and will consider the report's recommendations in the safeguard mechanism review. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Vietnam seaborne cement supply tightens

26/02/10

Vietnam seaborne cement supply tightens

London, 10 February (Argus) — Several Vietnamese cement suppliers are sold out for much of the year, according to comments made at the Intercem conference in Dubai last week, as stronger domestic and regional demand has limited spot availability. Securing Vietnamese volumes has now become challenging, one trader said. Higher public spending and residential construction demand in the domestic market has led some Vietnamese sellers to sharply increase export prices since the beginning of this year. Some producers, including Vicem Ha Tien, SCG Vietnam, Insee Vietnam, Fico YTL and Vicem Ha Long, also raised domestic cement prices by around $4/metric tonne (t) in January, according to the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Producers pointed to rising energy and raw material costs as additional factors behind the price adjustments. Vietnamese cement makers have been increasingly exporting to the US and other markets over the past five years because of excess supply after Chinese demand declined. The country delivered its first 122,300t to the US in 2019 and increased supply steadily to 4.47mn t in 2025, up from 1.12mn t in 2020. This cement has traditionally been offered at a significant discount to other origins such as Turkey. In recent months, Vietnamese cement has been offered at around $75-$85/t cfr US Gulf coast, compared with $90/t cfr or higher for Turkish cement. Fob prices were heard in the high $30s/t, although one US buyer heard fob prices significantly higher than this, potentially because sellers do not have excess tonnes for export. Although Vietnamese cement makers have room to boost exports, with most plants operating at just 60-80pc utilization and installed cement capacity exceeding 120mn t, producers remain primarily focused on the domestic market and only export surplus volumes, a market participant said. Lower exports from Vietnam to the US are likely to support demand for Turkish supply, which is expected to rely more heavily on the US market after the EU implemented its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) this year. The CBAM policy imposes a cost on imports to the EU from outside the region and could lead Turkish sellers to redirect much of the roughly 3mn t they supplied to the EU in 2025. Cement offers from Turkey to the US have already increased since the start of this year because of reduced competition from Vietnam and as CBAM "limits shipments to Europe", the trader said. By Alexander Makhlay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU cement importers aim to avoid CBAM default values

26/01/27

EU cement importers aim to avoid CBAM default values

Washington, 27 January (Argus) — European companies that have historically imported cement and clinker from outside the EU are grappling with the risks of importing these products this year because their counterparties are unable to verify their emissions footprint before 2027. The CBAM policy seeks to encourage producers to report their actual carbon intensity and get this verified by officials. Imports from companies that are not verified would be subject to a charge based on a default value that would apply to any imports from that origin. These default values are significantly higher than the average producer's actual emissions with the aim of discouraging companies from using them instead of working to reduce their carbon footprint. But even companies that wish to report their actual emissions cannot yet complete this process. Verification will not be possible during 2026, as declarants need data for the whole reporting year, German emissions trading authority DEHSt has told Argus . Provisional — such as quarterly — verification is not provided for in CBAM regulations, and for CBAM compliance based on individual data, "only the complete, verified emissions report for the respective calendar year is valid", a DEHSt spokesperson said. CBAM certificates will start circulating from February 2027 and importers are required to surrender certificates for 2026 emissions by 30 September 2027. They can verify data from the start of 2027 until this deadline. But while cement makers are confident that plants wishing to export to the EU will be diligent in seeking out this verification in the coming months, there is some concern whether national authorities even have the capacity to get enough certifiers accredited in time for all declarants to meet the 30 September 2027 deadline. This opens a significant amount of risk for anyone importing from outside the EU now, since they cannot guarantee they will not be subject to the punitive default values. The "verification process seems to be difficult to achieve during this current year," but the CBAM costs on a per tonne basis will be "criminal" if companies are ultimately forced to use the default values, one cement maker said. But some companies are optimistic that there will be an opportunity to adjust declarations when verified values are available prior to the surrender of certificates next year. "Obviously there is still some risk, as an importer may discover that the burden is a few euros higher than they originally thought", but this should not be the €60-70/t ($71.31-$83.19/t) it would be without emissions verification, one trader said. At least one buyer is only willing to import cement from within the EU or from exporters from outside the bloc that are owned by European cement groups, the trader said, making the calculation that European-owned firms will have reliable data and can be counted on to follow the necessary verification process once it is available. This hesitancy is keeping a lid on prices in some key export markets, like Turkey . By Lauren Masterson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CBAM uncertainty stalls Turkish cement pricing

26/01/14

CBAM uncertainty stalls Turkish cement pricing

London, 14 January (Argus) — Continued uncertainty over the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its ultimate additional costs for cement and clinker imports into the EU is helping keep fob Turkey cement and clinker prices stable. Turkish cement producers are keeping offers steady and are likely to continue to do so for at least the first half of this year, one Mediterranean cement exporter said, as CBAM-related uncertainties are likely to keep export volumes to the EU low for at least the first quarter. "Reducing prices will not bring extra volume, as the majority of customers took this already into account," the cement maker said. "Once they feel the scarcity of material in the market, then we will all see if prices start to move." At that point, Turkish producers may start to make spot offers, depending on the volume of their term commitments. But overall, exporters were not aggressively seeking new orders. At the same time, "costs are more or less flat," he said. CBAM impacts remain unknown as policy takes effect The EU's CBAM policy took effect on 1 January , but the actual costs it will impose on importers are still broadly unknown. The CBAM policy has the potential to significantly drive up import costs for cement from outside the EU, particularly if companies do not complete a verification process to show the actual embedded carbon emissions in their product. But there is no clear procedure for this verification, and the timing is also unclear, market participants said. "There is no supplier verified," the first cement maker said. Companies have already completed a process to state their embedded emissions to the EU, and most are operating under the assumption that the EU will ultimately accept these values. A Turkish cement maker said it had made a few contracts to Europe, despite not having started a verification process with the EU. Most Turkish producers are reporting emissions around 0.82t of CO2/t of cement, "although some state they have lower numbers", another Turkish producer said. For grey Portland cement imported into the EU during 2026 from suppliers with verified emissions of 0.82t of CO2/t, the CBAM cost would be €15.14/t ($17.63/t) at Tuesday's EU ETS price of €88.70/t, according to Argus calculations. But for suppliers that are not verified by the time the CBAM costs are calculated in 2027, a default value for the country of origin will apply. These default values are designed to be high to encourage companies to participate in the verification process. Ukraine, which supplied 1.6mn t of cement and clinker to the EU in 2025, according to the data available so far from Global Trade Tracker, has a country default value of 1.518t of CO2/t for Portland cement for 2026. This would mean a CBAM cost of €77/t at current ETS prices. Egypt, which supplied 1.3mn t as of the latest available data, has a default value of 1.419, while Algeria, which supplied 1.2m t, has 1.430t. These values would equal CBAM fees of roughly €68-€69/t. Turkey, which supplied 4.8mn t last year and ranked as the largest cement and clinker country of origin, was not given a national default value. This means any unverified Turkish exporters will be subject to the "other countries and territories" default value of 1.584t for Portland cement for 2026, or a cost of almost €83/t at current prices. The logic behind the country default value assignments is also unclear, another market participant said. Aside from the fact that the largest importer was not assigned a value, some countries' values do not seem to be related to the fuels they typically use to produce cement. "Algeria and Egypt are very close to each other. But Egypt cement factories use petcoke and coal, whereas Algeria uses gas," he said. Mediterranean cement, clinker fob prices steady Turkey's bulk cement prices were flat in the mid-to-high $50s/t fob last month. Bagged cement offers remained almost unchanged in the mid-to-high $60s/t fob, although offers in the low $60s/t were no longer available. Clinker prices from Turkey were reported at $45-$48/t fob, with buyers not widely accepting offers above $48/t. Egypt's pricing is largely aligned with Turkey, with premiums of $1-$3/t for cement depending on the destination. But export availability is limited, one cement maker said. A premium of "$1-$3/t is fine, but there's no cargo available," he said. "If you want to pay $58-$60/t, I don't think you're going to get it." Egyptian clinker prices were in the high $40s/t fob because of stable demand, but export supply of this product is even tighter, as producers prefer to keep it for their own use. By Alexander Makhlay and Lauren Masterson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: CBAM to reshape Med cement trade flows

25/12/24

Viewpoint: CBAM to reshape Med cement trade flows

London, 24 December (Argus) — Europe's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is set to reshape seaborne cement and clinker trade flows from the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa, diverting volumes away from the EU toward other growing markets such as west Africa, the Middle East and parts of South America, with exporters likely to lower fob prices to compete for new buyers. CBAM, scheduled to begin on 1 January, will impose a charge on imported cement and clinker with embedded carbon emissions above an established benchmark. The EU's preliminary implementing acts published last week have set these benchmarks lower than earlier proposals , which will likely mean higher CBAM costs for most imports. If the policy is implemented as currently proposed, a grey Portland cement producer from Egypt that has not had its emissions intensity verified by the EU would be subject to a country default value of 1.419t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)/t of cement in 2026. This is more than twice the free allowance benchmark value of 0.666t of CO2e/t, meaning an importer would owe a significant portion of the EU emissions trading system (ETS) allowance price for each tonne of cement. The ETS price now stands at more than €85/t of CO2e after rising earlier this week to its highest level since 2023. Fob prices for Egyptian or Turkish bulk cement are in the high $50s/t to low $60s/t, or roughly high €40s to low €50s/t on a euro dollar basis. Not only do the CBAM costs eliminate the price gap that has historically favoured suppliers from Turkey and North Africa exporting into the EU, but there is also additional risk in taking these imports.CBAM fees for next year's imports will not be calculated until 2027, when the EU ETS prices could be even higher. CBAM could divert millions of export tonnes EU companies were ramping up imports from Turkey and North Africa this year, likely to stock up ahead of CBAM. The new CBAM costs are likely to make much of this volume uncompetitive in the EU. Exporters may respond either by lowering fob or delivered prices in order to absorb some of the CBAM cost and defend EU market share, or by diverting volumes to non-EU markets, such as the US, west Africa, Middle East, or South America. Turkish cement exports to core EU buyers — Spain, Romania, Italy, France, Greece and Bulgaria — rose to 2.06mn t in January-September, up from 1.39mn t in the same period a year earlier, the latest Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data show. Clinker shipments to these buyers reached 2.12mn t in January-September, up from 1.55mn t over the same period last year and above the 2.08mn t shipped in the whole of 2024. Turkey accounted for about two-fifths of EU cement and clinker imports in 2024, Cembureau data show. North African exporters focused on clinker, with combined shipments to Europe at 2.14mn t in January-September, up from 1.64mn t a year earlier, according to GTT. Key destinations included Italy, Ireland, Croatia, Greece, France, Spain and Belgium. Much of this volume is now likely to move to countries that are seeing robust import growth. For cement, these include Syria, Iraq, Libya, Ghana, Guyana, Haiti, Guatemala, Peru and Jamaica. For clinker, demand growth is strongest in Syria, Senegal, Cameroon, Togo, Liberia, Mauritania, Guinea, Ghana, Guyana, the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Ivory Coast. These markets are structurally dependent on imports and highly price-sensitive. Mediterranean exporters will likely need to lower prices in order to attract new buyers in these regions as South Asian exporters have also been competing to export more to these markets. Vietnam continues to offer some of the lowest-priced clinker to west Africa and South America, supported by its surplus capacity and competitive Atlantic freight. Pakistan is expanding its exports into east Africa, the Mideast Gulf and south Asia and is now probing Atlantic markets with aggressive pricing. And Saudi Arabia is emerging as a major supplier of cement and clinker, particularly to the Middle East and Africa. Spot cement offers from Pakistan and Vietnam were recently in the mid-to-high $30s/t fob, compared with the mid-to-high $50s/t fob from Turkey and Egypt. In the clinker market, Turkish and Egyptian exporters are keeping offers at $44-45/t fob against $29-31/t fob from Asian producers. Vietnamese exporters also offer larger shipments, including on Panamax and Capesize vessels, which allow them to move more volume at lower freight costs. Another potential drag on cement and clinker prices in 2026 is a slowdown in the US cement market. The US is a major global importer and has been increasing its intake from suppliers like Turkey, Egypt and Vietnam. But imports are forecast to hit a bottom of around 17mn t in 2026, according to analyst Ed Sullivan of The Sullivan Report, as the US struggles with an uncertain policy landscape, new tariff costs, and low home affordability. But while market fundamentals and upcoming policies point to downward pressure on export prices across the Mediterranean and beyond, Mediterranean cement producers could find it difficult to significantly lower prices in order to compete in new export markets. Prices lower than current levels would mean losses for Turkish producers, one Turkish exporter said earlier this month. By Alexander Makhlay and Lauren Masterson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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