26/03/06
Thailand's fertilizer supply ample as war continues
Thailand's fertilizer supply ample as war continues
Singapore, 6 March (Argus) — Fertilizer supply in Thailand remains ample for the
next two months, and scheduled arrivals will help to build stocks which will
ensure sufficient supply until August, the Thai government said today.
Fertilizer supply in Thailand totalled 1.52mn t as of January, with urea
accounting for 320,000t or 6.5mn bags, which is sufficient to meet demand in the
country for more than two months. Thailand is expected to receive around
100,000t of urea from Saudi Arabia, equivalent to around 2mn bags, bringing the
total amount of urea available to farmers to 8.5mn bags, which is sufficient
until August, said Airin Panrit, deputy spokesperson for the prime minister's
office on 6 March. The government has also instructed relevant agencies to
monitor the evolving situation in the Middle East and its impact on domestic
prices, and warned retailers not to take advantage of the situation by raising
prices excessively, or they would risk facing legal action. This statement came
after concerns of a fertilizer shortage arose among farmers following the start
of the US-Israel-Iran war, which has effectively choked off supply from
producers in the Mideast Gulf for now. The Middle East is the largest urea
exporting region, shipping around 20mn t/yr or 35pc of global seaborne trade.
Thailand imports most of its urea from the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia being
its biggest supplier, accounting for around 1.1mn t of deliveries in 2025.
Thailand also imports urea from other sources including Malaysia and Brunei,
which could supplement Thailand's urea stocks if needed. "Farmers should not
panic," said Panrit, adding "There is no need to rush or buy or stockpile large
volumes of fertilizers." Domestic urea prices rise further, importers' reactions
mixed Meanwhile, some suppliers have continued to raise domestic granular urea
prices in line with firming international offers. The latest bagged domestic
granular urea prices have risen to around 17,000 baht/t ($535/t) ex-warehouse as
of 6 March, up by 800 baht/t from the day before. Importers agree that further
price hikes are expected in the weeks to come. One importer told Argus that
current urea inventories are sufficient to cover the upcoming seasonal demand in
the near term and importers do not need to rush to import more spot urea on the
back of the conflict. Others are seeing several importers seeking spot offers
from regional suppliers in Malaysia and Brunei, as they expect supply from the
Middle East to be disrupted in the short term. But importers will have to
grapple with tight short-term supply from regional producers and significantly
higher prices. Malaysian producer Petronas sold 30,000t of spot granular urea on
5 March at $650/t fob Sipitang and has yet to offer any new cargoes, while
Bruneian producer BFI is mostly sold out of March and April availability and
only offering first-half May cargoes. Pupuk Indonesia is also out of the export
market with no sign of a sale tender. Thailand is currently in the harvesting
season for off-season rice and fruits. The main planting season for paddy
typically starts in May, coinciding with the start of the southwest monsoon
season. Domestic demand for fertilizers is likely to emerge only from April
onwards, which leaves some time for farmers to evaluate the situation before
buying fertilizers. By Huijun Yao and Dinise Chng Send comments and request more
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