The US has warned Baghdad it could impose sanctions on individuals and institutions if Iraq's largest parliamentary bloc maintains former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki as its nominee for premier, escalating pressure on a political process already mired in deadlock.
Iraq's foreign ministry said today a verbal message delivered in Washington included a "clear and explicit hint" at possible sanctions, alongside "criteria governing future co-operation" with the US, particularly regarding the formation and functioning of the next government.
Foreign minister Fuad Hussein said in a televised interview on Wednesday that US communication focused on expectations for financial and security reforms, including banking sector restructuring and the status of armed factions. Hussein described the communication as "a verbal message relayed via diplomatic channels," noting Iraq had received it prior to public pushback by President Donald Trump against al-Maliki's return to the premiership.
Washington's pressure is adding a significant external variable to negotiations within the Co-ordination Framework, the largest parliamentary bloc that has nominated al-Maliki for the premiership. Al-Maliki served two terms as prime minister from 2006 to 2014 and remains influential through his State of Law party, which placed second in the 2025 election and is part of the Co-ordination Framework. He is widely viewed as one of Iran's closest allies in Baghdad.
Two Iraqi officials familiar with negotiations told Argus that media reports suggesting an imminent withdrawal of al-Maliki's nomination are premature. A senior Iraqi government official said there has been "just talk and no action so far," and a source within the Co-ordination Framework described negotiations as stalled and said there is "no intention from Al-Maliki to withdraw."
The same source said al-Maliki believes a withdrawal of his candidacy must come from the bloc that nominated him, and has said his replacement should come from his own party, complicating consensus-building efforts.
US pressure has intensified following earlier remarks by Trump that al-Maliki's return would be a "bad choice" and suggesting Washington may reconsider support to Iraq if he assumes office. Al-Maliki called the comments interference in Iraqi domestic affairs.
Washington has significant leverage over Baghdad through financial channels, security co-operation and investment. The premiership deadlock comes as the US ramps up pressure to roll back Iran's regional influence, with military assets deployed to the Middle East. Ice Brent futures are supported by these tensions, with Ice front-month April Brent nearing a six-month high today above $71/bl.
