Rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) in the Americas are poised to rise above six-year highs today after the outbreak of fighting in the Middle East, choking the supply of around 20pc of crude oil shipments globally via the now-embattled strait of Hormuz.
US Gulf coast-China VLCC rates are trading around $20mn lumpsum, according to a market participant, which would represent their highest levels since October 2019. Shipbrokers have called the market as high as $21.5mn, including $250,000 US Gulf coast load port fees, which would put the rate on that route only $1mn below its highest recorded level.
Crude demand from Americas-loading ports will likely continue to surge as strait of Hormuz transits remain off the table for most vessel operators. The $/bl rate for a Suezmax tanker carrying WTI to China from the US Gulf coast was at $8.48/bl on 27 February compared with $8.77/bl for an equivalent voyage and cargo on a VLCC, suggesting some demand will shift to midsize tanker segments in the near term with VLCC rates continuing to rise.
It is unusual for VLCC shipments to cost less per barrel than smaller segments, but [VLCC rates had already been rocketing higher on a major fleet consolidation](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2793617) by South Korea's Sinokor that kicked off in late 2025.
Ecopetrol had put a VLCC on subjects for a Colombia-China voyage at $19mn lumpsum after market close on 27 February, just before the start of the conflict in Iran, representing a $1.6mn increase for the voyage. The rate on that route is also likely to push above $20mn Monday in line with increases in the US Gulf coast.
