News
26/10/14
Global oil supply rebounds in September: IEA
London, 14 October (Argus) — Global oil supply sharply rebounded in September,
but the gains remain fragile because of increasing attacks on energy targets by
Iran and the Yemen-based Houthis, the IEA said today. In its latest Oil Market
Report (OMR), the IEA said global oil supply increased by 2.5mn b/d in September
from August, driven by higher output and exports from the Mideast Gulf. Exports
from the region rose by 4.4mn b/d on the month to 13.9mn b/d, around 75pc of
levels seen before the US-Iran war. Flows through the strait of Hormuz increased
by 3.7mn b/d to 10.9mn b/d, elevated by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of
Oman, the IEA said. Still, the agency downgraded its global oil supply forecast
for this year. It now sees supply falling by 5.76mn b/d to 100.65mn b/d,
compared with a 5.67mn b/d fall in September's OMR. It sees supply rebounding by
7.67mn b/d to 108.32mn b/d in 2027. The IEA said global refinery runs remained
constrained by the effects of the US-Iran war, and by lower runs in Russia and
Asia-Pacific. Product flows from the Middle East have risen in recent weeks but
remain half of pre-war levels, the agency said. The world is particularly short
of diesel, it said. Global diesel availability fell by 1.5mn b/d in the second
quarter and by 1.7mn b/d in the third quarter, compared with year-earlier
levels, and middle distillate flows are likely to remain constrained well into
2027. The IEA forecasts global oil demand will fall by 2.62mn b/d to 102.38mn
b/d this year, lower by 120,000 b/d from its September projection. It sees
demand rebounding by 2mn b/d to 104.38mn b/d next year, which is 560,000 b/d
below its prior forecast and still below 2025. The IEA's projections imply that
even with a sharp fall in demand the global oil market will be in a supply
deficit of 1.73mn b/d this year. It said global observed oil inventories were
509mn bl below pre-war levels at the end of September, with on land stocks at
their lowest since at least 2016. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more
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