26/03/10
EIA expects WTI to average nearly $85/bl in 2Q: Update
Adds outlook details. Calgary, 10 March (Argus) — The US light sweet crude
benchmark will average nearly $85/bl in the second quarter this year because of
fighting in the Middle East, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
predicted today. WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $84.56/bl
across April-June, the agency said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook
(STEO), a $30.91/bl upward revision from its February forecast. Crude prices
have surged from about $65/bl in late-February to nearly $120/bl on 9 March as
the US-Israel war with Iran has choked off flows through the strait of Hormuz.
Prices on Tuesday eased to near $83/bl, after US president Donald Trump said the
war was practically over . WTI will average $73.61/bl across 2026, EIA predicts,
up from $53.42/bl forecast in last month's STEO. EIA similarly revised Brent
prices higher, forecasting the global benchmark to average $90.56/bl in the
second quarter before falling to $70/bl by the end of the year. The agency
expects Brent will average $78.84/bl across the full year. The EIA assumes that
shut-in oil production in the Middle East will peak in early April, but a risk
premium will persist in an "evolving and uncertain" environment. The higher
crude prices will entice US producers to increase output in 2026, and even more
next year, reversing prior predictions that 2027 would see a decline in domestic
output. US production is set to average 13.61mn b/d in 2026, higher by 100,000
b/d from February's STEO estimate. The US outlook for output in 2027 was revised
higher by 510,000 b/d to 13.83mn b/d. The outlook for global output meanwhile
was cut to 107.04mn b/d for 2026, lower by 810,000 b/d from a month ago. Global
production was lifted to 109.61mn b/d, an upward revision of 860,000 b/d, with
the US accounting for more than half of that gain. The EIA lifted both US and
global demand outlooks for 2026 and 2027 despite the upward revisions to oil
prices. Domestic consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels is to average
20.6mn b/d in 2026 and 20.73mn b/d, representing increases of 10,000 b/d and
70,000 b/d, respectively, from the prior STEO. Global demand is now forecast at
105.17mn b/d in 2026 and 106.61mn b/d in 2027, for increases of 380,000 b/d and
540,000 b/d, respectively. The EIA is still expecting a surplus of crude in
2026, but significantly less than previously forecast. Inventories will build at
a pace of 1.9mn b/d this year, down from the 3.1mn b/d forecast in last month's
STEO. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at
feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights
reserved.
