Germany's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were almost unchanged last year, according to data released by federal environment office UBA on 14 March, putting pressure on the government ahead of its new climate action programme expected next week.
GHG emissions fell by less than 1mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), or 0.1pc, on the year in 2025 to 649mn t CO2e.
Only the country's battered industry sector achieved meaningful cuts, as energy-intensive production declined further. Although this allowed Germany to meet its 2025 target under the country's climate action law — a 48pc cut in emissions against 1990 levels — the chances of the country reaching its 2030 climate target are lower than a year ago, UBA projections show.
UBA expects Germany to post a 63pc emissions reduction in 2030, compared with 1990 levels, a 30mn t CO2e gap against the country's 65pc target.
UBA also projects a gap of 100mn t CO2e in 2040, with reductions of 80pc against an 88pc target, assuming no change to emissions-cutting measures.
The challenge to meet the 2030 target has become "bigger but not impossible", environment and climate minister Carsten Schneider said at the presentation of the data. Germany will need to reduce GHG emissions by an average of 42mn t CO2e/yr in 2026-30, Schneider said.
Expected increases in heat pump and electric vehicle sales, and onshore wind power turbine deployment, are "beacons of hope", Schneider said.
Germany's energy sector emissions fell by only 0.3pc last year, mainly owing to lower wind speeds, which reduced wind power and in turn increased gas-fired generation.
Industrial emissions fell by 3.8pc, with UBA noting "slow progress" in the rollout of technologies such as electrification and green hydrogen.
The country's transport sector posted an emissions rise of 1.5pc, on increasing traffic volume.
The buildings sector was the worst performer, recording a 3.5pc rise in emissions as lower temperatures pushed up fossil fuel consumption for heating.
Schneider underlined the urgency of investments to decarbonise buildings and transport, not the least to avoid "as far as possible" the purchase of carbon allowances from other EU member states under the bloc's Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR). UBA puts Germany's likely cumulative total gap under the ESR in 2021-30 at 255mn t CO2e.
Emissions in the land use, land use change and forestry sector more than halved to 27mn t CO2e, mainly thanks to Germany's forests reverting to an emissions sink, absorbing 19mn t CO2e last year. Emissions in the agricultural sector were flat.
The UBA projections were finalised in November and therefore do not reflect the latest developments in the oil and gas markets, or recent legislative proposals expected to curtail growth in renewable power and ease the continued use of oil and gas-based heating installations.
Energy think-tank Agora Energiewende called for these legislative proposals to be revisited, as well as suggesting investments in "future-proof" infrastructure, additional tenders for onshore wind power and "clear" CO2 limits for car fleets.
And environmental group DUH announced it will take further legal action — following its successful court case against the government in January — if next week's climate action programme "obviously" fails to close the gaps identified in UBA's projections.
Germany's government-appointed council of experts on climate change has until mid-May to verify UBA's projection data.
