Physical NWE diesel cracks nearing record highs

: Oil products
26/03/19

The premium for diesel cargoes loading from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub to North Sea Dated crude rose to the second-strongest on Argus' records on 18 March, and its highest since the start of the war in the Middle East.

Diesel cargoes on fob ARA basis settled at a $69.17/bl premium to North Sea Dated on 18 March. That is the second-highest premium that fob ARA cargoes have held against North Sea Dated on Argus' records, with the highest premium of $70.10/bl reached on 18 October 2022 as Europe was cutting Russian product imports.

Diesel refining margins have more than doubled since the start of the US-Iran war. Around 20pc of the EU and UK's imports last year passed through the strait of Hormuz, according to shiptracking service Vortexa. Iran's threat to attack Mideast Gulf energy infrastructure drove the rise in cracks, market participants said. And the country has made good on those threats overnight. State-owned QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan complex has sustained damage, although it was not immediately clear whether the refinery itself was directly attacked or sustained any damage.

Drones hit refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, including the 400,000 b/d Samref refinery at Yanbu on the Red Sea.

Any disruption to operations at Yanbu would drive European diesel prices even higher, as it has remained a viable option for Saudi exports of diesel, having alone supplied around 15pc of the EU and UK's imports last year.

The front month ice gasoil futures have continued to rise on Thursday, 19 March. Ice April gasoil traded at $1,347.75/t at 10:18 GMT, up by 7pc from the close on 18 March. Front-month Ice Brent futures rose by just under 7pc in the same period.

Despite the surge in European diesel prices, volumes on the water that made it out of the Mideast Gulf before the war have partly muted price rises, market participants said. The last cargo of Mideast Gulf diesel to arrive into the ARA hub will be the STI Sloane, which will discharge around 10 April. One European diesel trader said they thought the European market is "starting to wake up".

The key difference between disruption caused by the war in the Middle East compared with disruption caused by the conflict in Ukraine is that Mideast Gulf supplies are cut off from the global market, while Russian barrels were redistributed, a trader said.

Backwardation across the Ice gasoil futures curve — where prompt prices exceed future prices —also surged so far on Thursday, 19 March. The front-month Ice gasoil futures held a $157/t premium to the second month futures at 10:18 GMT. If that structure holds to the close it would be the third- highest on Argus' record.

By Josh Michalowski

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26/03/19

Refineries in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia hit by drones

London, 19 March (Argus) — Oil refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have been hit by Iranian drones, as a night of violence targeted at regional energy facilities pushed Ice Brent crude prices up by as much as 8pc. Kuwait's state-owned KPC reported fires at two of the country's three refineries, and Saudi Arabia's defence ministry said a drone hit a complex at Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, adjacent to what is now the country's only crude export terminal. One unit at Kuwait's 346,000 b/d Mina al-Ahmadi refinery was struck in the early hours of Thursday, resulting in "a small fire", KPC said. Another strike hit "one unit" at the 454,000 b/d Mina Abdullah refinery, which again caused a fire. No injuries were reported. The facilities are 10km apart on Kuwait's Mideast Gulf coast. Neither KPC, nor its downstream subsidiary KNPC that operates the refineries, have disclosed if the facilities have been taken offline. Neither were immediately available for comment. Saudi Arabia said a drone hit the 400,000 b/d Samref refinery at Yanbu. No further details were given. The plant was on an Iranian list of facilities it said it would target in response to US and Israeli strikes on key gas processing facilities on Wednesday. The list included energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, but not in Kuwait. News of these attacks added more than $9/bl, or more than 8pc, to front-month Ice Brent crude today, pushing the price as high as $117/bl. The price rose by nearly 4pc on Wednesday and has settled above $100/bl for four consecutive days for the first time since mid-2022. State-owned QatarEnergy said the Ras Laffan industrial complex came under attack twice, once late on Wednesday and once early on Thursday, which resulted in "extensive damage" to the Pearl GTL facility and to "several" of its LNG facilities. Prices for natural gas in Europe went up by a third in early trade today. Iran had listed the 305,000 b/d Ras Laffan refinery, which is in the same complex, as one of its five targets. It is unclear if the refinery sustained any damage. UAE authorities reported incidents at the Habshan gas facilities, and at the 420,000 b/d Bab oil field "caused by falling debris from the successful interception of missiles." The facilities are now shut, they said. Riyadh also came under attack on Wednesday night. The Saudi defence ministry said it intercepted four ballistic missiles "resulting in some debris falling in different areas of the capital" but without "damage or casualties." By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia establishes fuel supply taskforce

26/03/19

Australia establishes fuel supply taskforce

Sydney, 19 March (Argus) — The federal Australian government has established a national fuel supply taskforce, appointing former head of the country's energy regulator Anthea Harris as its leader. Prime minister Anthony Albanese announced the appointment after a national cabinet meeting with state and territory leaders today. Harris will provide regular updates on the fuel supply outlook and how fuel is being distributed domestically. State and territory leaders will also appoint a representative to work with Harris, with the taskforce to operate under the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. The federal government is responsible for fuel security and supply, while the states manage distribution. Canberra maintains that recent supply issues have been driven by a spike in demand caused by panic buying rather than by constraints in supply chains. The government has not ruled out future fuel rationing but said it has no plans to introduce such measures at this stage. "Our fuel supply is currently secure — but I want us to be over-prepared," Albanese said in a statement today. By Tom Woodlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.75pc

26/03/18

Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.75pc

Sao Paulo, 18 March (Argus) — Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate to 14.75pc in its second meeting of 2026, in a bid to smooth out fluctuations in economic activity and boost jobs even amid the backdrop of rising global tensions. The decision to lower the rate, announced on Wednesday, follows a string of decisions to keep it unchanged at 15pc from June 2025 until now. Domestically, economic activity appears to be moderating while the labor market is showing signs of resilience, the central bank's monetary committee said. Headline and underlying inflation measures continue to soften, but still remain above the inflation target. Inflation risks are higher than usual after the US-Israeli war on Iran broke out, the committee, known as the Copom, said. In the US, Fed policymakers Wednesday, kept the target rate unchanged for a second meeting this year. The lower rate in Brazil may be the start of a cutting cycle for the year, former Copom member Sergio Goldenstein said last week. It is not a one-time adjustment despite the lack of predictability due to rising global conflicts since the start of 2026, he said. Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 3.81pc in February. Still, inflation expectations, as calculated by the bank's Focus survey, remain above target, at 4.1pc and 3.8pc for 2026 and 2027. For full-year 2025, GDP growth slowed to 2.3pc from 3.4pc in 2024 and 3.2pc in 2023, IBGE data show. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Qatar's Ras Laffan comes under attack: Update 2

26/03/18

Qatar's Ras Laffan comes under attack: Update 2

Adds more details. Washington, 18 March (Argus) — The Ras Laffan industrial complex sustained damage on Wednesday after a missile attack, QatarEnergy said. "Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused," QatarEnergy said. All personnel have been accounted for, and no casualties have been reported, QatarEnergy said in a post on the X platform. Tehran earlier on Wednesday listed the 305,000 b/d Ras Laffan refinery in Qatar among five downstream facilities it would attack shortly in retaliation for what it described as US-Israeli strikes on Iranian gas treatment plants at the South Pars gas field. It was not immediately clear whether the refinery itself was directly attacked or sustained any damage. It also was not clear whether the 77mn t/yr Ras Laffan LNG export terminal sustained damage. Tehran also threatened strikes against the 400,000 b/d Samref refinery at Yanbu and the Sadara petrochemical complex at Jubail in Saudi Arabia, Qatar Chemical in Doha and the Al-Hosn sour gas field in Abu Dhabi. Riyadh also came under attack on Wednesday night local time. The Saudi defense ministry said it intercepted 4 ballistic missiles "... resulting in some debris falling in different areas of the capital" but without "damage or casualties, according to preliminary assessments". By Haik Gugarats and Annemarie Pettinato Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook clouded by Iran war: IMEF

26/03/18

Mexico GDP outlook clouded by Iran war: IMEF

Mexico City, 18 March (Argus) — Mexico's finance executives association IMEF slightly raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast in its March survey, but warned the conflict in Iran has added uncertainty to US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement negotiations, further clouding the outlook. IMEF increased its 2026 growth forecast to 1.4pc from 1.3pc in its previous survey, citing upward revisions to fourth-quarter 2025 GDP and similar adjustments by the central bank and other private sector surveys. "But this is just one tenth of one percent, which, in addition, does not fully incorporate the events that have taken place since 28 February," said Herrera, given many of the executives filed responses before the start of the US-Iran war. Herrera added that higher energy prices are unlikely to hit first-quarter GDP, given advanced gasoline purchases, with prices set before the war erupted. "But a risky situation is starting to take shape for Mexico, the effects of which we will mainly see in the second quarter," Herrera said, as uncertainty builds ahead of the 1 July USMCA review deadline. "We think investment will remain suppressed until we have good news on that front," he added, amid concerns the US could extend the process through its November midterm elections. The Middle East conflict could also pressure Mexico's fiscal deficit, IMEF said. "Finding a solution to this confrontation is proving slower than originally anticipated, and it is highly likely that our country will suffer the effects of increased gasoline and food prices," the association said. Mexico's government has already indicated it would subsidize fuel excise taxes to cushion rising prices, but this could push the projected 4.5pc fiscal deficit closer to the 5pc level seen in 2025, IMEF said. As a result, IMEF warned that public-sector debt could reach 60pc of GDP, potentially triggering a credit rating action and pushing sovereign and state-owned Pemex debt closer to non-investment grade. The group also flagged increased volatility in the peso-dollar exchange rate, noting this could begin generating pass-through effects to inflation if the conflict persists for several months. For now, IMEF continues to see the central bank issuing two quarter-point rate cuts to the target interest rate, to 6.5pc from the current 7pc, by the end of 2026, and held its end-2026 inflation estimate at 4pc. IMEF slightly strengthened its peso outlook, forecasting Ps18.35/$1 by end-2026, compared with Ps18.4/$1 in the previous survey. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Physical NWE diesel cracks nearing record highs

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Refineries in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia hit by drones

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