Disruption affecting gasoline exports from the Mideast Gulf is already spreading to key import markets from Pakistan to east Africa, and could worsen if cargo delays and higher freight rates make prompt cargoes harder to secure.
Higher procurement costs — driven by shipping-related disruption since the start of the US-Iran war — are beginning to cast doubt on prompt gasoline arrivals into key import markets. Pakistan remains highly exposed to any prolonged disruption around the strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 70pc of its gasoline imports, although officials said stocks "remain at comfortable levels".
In Kenya, the near-term picture appears more steady. The country's petroleum cabinet secretary Opiyo Wandayi told Argus that its contractual volumes under government-to-government (G2G) arrangements with the Mideast Gulf's national oil companies (NOCs) remain on track. State pipeline operator KPC holds 102mn litres of gasoline, enough to meet the country's stockholding requirement, while a further 330mn l are scheduled for delivery toward the end of April, the minister added.
"We are confident our G2G arrangement is robust enough to manage any near-term uncertainties". the minister said.
While contracted cargoes are still arriving, Kenya remains vulnerable to any prolonged disruption in the Mideast Gulf, which supplied more than half of its gasoline requirements in 2025. Suppliers are still trying to move cargoes into the region, with some European gasoline being redirected there. The STI Park, a 90,000t vessel, is expected to arrive at the port of Mombasa in mid-April, while the LR2 STI Selatar is due to arrive around the same time with about 75,000t of gasoline loaded from Antwerp.
But signs of strain are emerging, with local media reporting long queues at filling stations and dry pumps in parts of Nairobi, confirmed by at least two local sources. "Many retail stations are running dry because the higher cost of March cargoes is not yet reflected in the current regulated pump price, prompting oil marketing companies to curb wholesale sales and leaving independent retailers struggling to secure fuel", the head of Kenya's Petroleum Outlets Association, John Njogu told Argus. The Kenyan government has kept maximum pump prices for gasoline, diesel and kerosine unchanged for the 15 March-14 April review period.
In Tanzania, another key buyer of Mideast Gulf gasoline, delivery windows for cargoes scheduled for April have already begun to shift, even though the cargoes were ordered around two months in advance before the war, according to the executive director of the Tanzania Association of Oil Marketing Companies, Raphael Mgaya. While the impact on supply security remains unclear, he warned that local prices could rise by at least 70pc if disruption persists, leaving "oil marketing companies short of working capital".
"That could make it harder to open letters of credit on time, pushing cargoes into third-party storage under financial hold and adding interest, storage charges and penalties", Mgaya said.
Pressure is also building in Pakistan, with reports from the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan showing long queues at fuel stations in Karachi, while the government said rising global prices are increasing import costs and straining letters of credit. Pakistan's state-owned PSO has already seen the impact in its latest tender, where Mideast Gulf refiners offered cargoes at a record $17-19/bl premium, compared with roughly $5-7/bl premiums before the conflict, suggesting prompt replacement barrels are becoming both more costly and harder to secure.
