Nigeria was a net exporter of gasoline for the first time in March, capping a transformation in the country's position from a heavy net importer of the product to a global supplier.
West Africa's largest economy received 41,000 b/d of gasoline in the month, the lowest on Kpler records. Dangote crude receipts in the month were the second highest since the 650,000 b/d refinery started operations at the end of 2023, at 565,000 b/d, suggesting healthy run rates and gasoline output, cutting reliance on foreign supply.
Dangote booked just 10pc of the gasoline imported to Nigeria last month. Independent marketing firms took up recently issued import permits, allowing Dangote to funnel more of its production to export markets.
Lower domestic demand may have left a greater amount of gasoline available for export in March. Local sources cited a 40pc increase in retail prices because of the US-Israel war against Iran and the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz, which probably weighed on consumer demand.
Nigeria also appeared to be sitting on comfortable gasoline stocks going into March, market participants said.
Dangote gasoline exports were 44,000 b/d in March, up from none in January-February. As the sole gasoline producer in Nigeria, Dangote loadings helped tip the balance, making the country a net gasoline exporter of 3,000 b/d in March.
Dangote made forays into the east African market in March for the first time, loading a 317,000 bl gasoline cargo signalling for Mozambique. East African gasoline import demand from Dangote rose as the region scrambles for alternative supply in the absence of Mideast Gulf product. Dangote's sole gasoline export to date in April is also destined for Beira, Mozambique.
Nigeria's status as a net-gasoline exporter compounds Europe's gasoline oversupply conundrum, as the west African country is on the way to becoming a competitor rather than an customer. Nigeria is probably better positioned to place gasoline into west or east Africa to cover war-related shortfalls. Some tanker fixtures of gasoline loading in Europe for delivery to east of Suez ports failed in March, probably because of elevated freight rates.
It remains to be seen if Nigeria can replicate its March milestone, given the small size of its net export position. A rise in local demand, fewer gasoline import permits issued, or lower run rates at Dangote could each tip the balance back towards more familiar territory.
