UK jet fuel supply is currently secure but visibility beyond the next few weeks is limited, industry participants said at the UK liquid fuels trade association conference in Liverpool on Thursday.
The risk of jet fuel shortages across Europe has risen because of disruption to supplies from the Mideast Gulf linked to the US-Israel war with Iran. Stock, demand and trade patterns suggest the UK is particularly exposed to tighter availability.
"We're buying jet fuel today, it's available on the market," said Simon Holt, managing director of emerging energy at refiner Phillips 66. "How that's going to change, I don't know. There is less coming out of the Middle East and something has got to give."
Essar Energy Transition (EET) managing director Ruth Herbert echoed that view. "There are no problems today, you can buy it, and we have some foresight on that. What will become clear in the next cycle is maybe six weeks away."
Petroineos head of inland trading David Wilson indicated a similar outlook.
Phillips 66 operates the UK's 230,000 b/d Killingholme refinery, while EET runs the 195,000 b/d Stanlow plant. Petroineos closed its Grangemouth refinery in Scotland last year and has repurposed the site as an import and distribution terminal.
The IEA said earlier this week that European markets will need to work harder to attract more replacement jet fuel cargoes from outside the Mideast Gulf. If the region is unable to secure more than 50pc of its lost Middle East volumes, then stocks may fall low enough to cause physical shortages at some airports by June, it said.
Last week, EU airports association ACI Europe warned that the EU could experience jet fuel shortages in just three weeks if Middle East flows through the strait of Hormuz do not resume "in any significant and stable way".
