Indian DAP stocks were supported by a recovery in domestic production in April, according to provisional data, but a scarcity of global raw materials and DAP remains a risk for suppliers ahead of the peak domestic demand season that starts around the end of the third quarter.
Argus estimates India's DAP stocks at 1.93mn t at the end of April, well below the 2.46mn t average for the month across 2021-25.
India produced 304,000t of DAP last month, up sharply from 196,000t in March, provisional data show, as producers completed scheduled maintenance. This raised January-April output to 1.18mn t, broadly in line with the 1.12mn t average over the same period in 2021-25.
Imports also climbed in April, by 104,000t on the month to 131,000t, line-up data show. But arrivals in January-April of 380,000t were significantly below the 1.12mn t five-year average for the same period because high international prices — exacerbated by the closure of the strait of Hormuz since the end of February — discouraged Indian importers from buying.
The Indian DAP assessment has climbed from a low of $668/t cfr at the midpoint in January to $932.50/t cfr in early May.
Sales of 322,000t in April, based on provisional data, bring demand in the first four months of the year to 1.73mn t, above the five-year average of 1.54mn t.
India's import line-up could increase if importer IPL decides to award significant volumes of DAP in its 7 May tender to buy 1.2mn t, in which it received offers totalling 2.33mn t. Any cargoes awarded under the tender are to ship from loading ports by mid-August. The importer earlier on Friday issued counterbids at the level of the lowest offers, but it remains to be seen if suppliers are willing to reduce their offers, and how much of the offered product is formally backed by producers.
Indian DAP producers will continue to face limited supply and high prices for raw materials — even if the strait of Hormuz reopens fully this month, disruptions to global supply will take months to dissipate. This will place a greater emphasis on imports to meet DAP demand.
TSP sales of 31,000t drew national stocks down to 374,000t at the end of April, without any imports arriving to replace offtake.
