Indian DAP stocks edged up to 1.96mn t over May as a boost in domestic production and imports helped offset the uptick in demand.
Combined imports and domestic output outpaced offtake in May, raising stocks by 33,000t on the month, the latest data from the Fertilizer Association of India (FAI) show.
India started May with 1.93mn t of DAP in stock.
May domestic output was at 393,000t, the highest of any month since August 2024, according to FAI data. In the face of bullish international DAP prices, domestic production margins are almost $200/t more attractive when using ammonia and phosphoric acid than importing DAP as of last week.
The FAI data show an increase in May imports to 132,000t compared with underwhelming arrivals in March and April. But last month's total is only about a third of average 2021-25 May imports at 393,000t. The lack of clarity on whether importers will be compensated by the government for their losses, coupled with steep price increases since the start of the US-Iran war, have dampened import interest.
Domestic sales seasonally rose to 492,000t in May, but the total remains below the 573,000t five-year average for the month.
More imports needed ahead of 4Q
Indian importers will have to intensify their DAP purchases in the coming months, as domestic demand will rise seasonally over the third quarter and peak in the fourth quarter.
Margins for the production of DAP with phosphoric acid may worsen next quarter on the back of expectations of higher phosphoric acid prices. Producers and traders envisage a significant price increase from the second-quarter settlement at $1,360/t P2O5 cfr as sulphur costs have continued to rise over the second quarter while supply has dried up.
A lack of ammonia stocks helped Indian importers secure a lower-than-expected second-quarter phosphoric acid settlement, but improved ammonia supply over the second quarter is likely to weaken importers' hands in negotiations for the third quarter.
Indian importers are expected to soon emerge with fresh demand for DAP. The apparent de-escalation of hostilities around the strait of Hormuz raised the prospect of softer DAP prices and delayed Indian import demand.
TSP stocks fall on lack of imports
Indian TSP demand rose to 59,000t in May, while no imports were recorded for the third month in a row, causing stocks to fall to 314,000t.
Stocks are due to improve with new arrivals of 100,000t of Moroccan TSP bought at the start of the month for shipment in June-July, and another 100,000t from OCP bought last week for loading in June.
