The fill level for French storage sites is well below this point in recent years, but the injection rate needed to meet the government's 85pc target looks achievable, with injections likely to be front-loaded in August-September because of technical constraints at two key sites.
Stocks stood at 71.7TWh, or 57.9pc of capacity, this morning, GIE transparency platform data show — 27.8TWh, or 18.3pc, below the five-year average for the date.
Regulator CRE requires suppliers to fill 85pc of booked capacity by 1 November, and all French capacity has been booked for the 2026-27 storage year. Suppliers failing to meet this obligation face a fine of up to twice the value of their shortfall. To meet the 85pc target, equal to 105.3TWh, French net injections will need to be 428 GWh/d on 5 August-31 October — well above the 301 GWh/d five-year average for the period.
That said, technical constraints at the 44.9TWh Serene Atlantique and 15TWh Serene Nord sites require inventories at both to reach 90pc by 30 September, further tightening France's injection trajectory over the next three months. With Serene Atlantique 61.6pc full and Serene Nord at 66.7pc, suppliers may need to front-load injections in August-September.
Taking into account the 90pc end-September requirement for the two Serene sites, and assuming injections progress linearly at sites subject to the 85pc end-October target, the required pace would be higher in the near term. Injections would need to be 539 GWh/d in August-September, before dropping to 231 GWh/d in October.
These rates are well above recent norms. The five-year average for 5 August-30 September is 391 GWh/d, and in October the average falls to just 134 GWh/d. That said, sites are typically much fuller at this time of the year, and injections typically slow because of pressure constraints near capacity.
Further fill limitations this year could result from pressure-related injection rate deterioration at salt caverns — including Sediane and the Serene facilities — as well as maintenance. Both Serene sites are expected to record injection rate cuts of 20-35pc for most of September, while Sediane is scheduled for a 30pc reduction from 7 September to 16 October.
French sites must use an average of 71.5pc of available injection capacity until 31 October, after accounting for maintenance and pressure limitations. The requirement is higher at the two constrained Serene sites, with Serene Atlantique and Serene Nord required to use 81.6pc and 81.2pc, respectively, until 30 September.
LNG supply may support build
Bookings at French LNG import terminals are looking busier for August-October, suggesting a recovery in sendout and ample supply for the stockbuild.
Regasification in July was the lowest since August 2021, but the outlook for August and the next two months is more supportive. The inter-basin arbitrage for US Gulf coast loadings is considered closed, which could accelerate deliveries to Europe from the second half of August and leave more supply for injections.
French terminal operators' Fluxys and Elengy nominations suggest just over 29 deliveries a month on average in August-October, more than double July's 12.
