US urea price cycle could track 2013: Analysis

: Fertilizers
14/06/04

US urea barge prices could follow a similar path to last year despite lower corn prices and fewer intended corn acres.

New Orleans (Nola) barge prices typically peak in late winter/early spring, just ahead of or concurrently with the crest of demand for nitrogen-intensive corn planting. From 2009-2014 the urea Nola barge assessment midpoint saw its highest monthly average price for the spring period in February three times, including the last two years. Typically, this spring peak will be the highest price achieved for the fertilizer year.

Over the five years leading up to this season, the decline from the highest monthly average price in the winter/spring period to the lowest monthly average price of the summer/fall period has been between $47/st and $249/st with an average drop of $113/st.

Prices followed a trend of mean reversion with higher peaks preceding more severe declines and lower peaks followed by less significant drops. In 2012, for instance, the urea Nola barge assessment posted its highest monthly average in April at $645/st fob. By November, the monthly average price dropped to $396/st, a $249/st decline and the largest peak to trough decline of the five years. In 2009, on the other hand, the $302/st peak reached in February preceded just a $55/st drop.

Since January 2009, the average urea Nola barge price has been $365/st. The assessment's monthly average during this period was as high as $645/st (April 2012) and as low as $233/st (May 2009). Over the last five years, prices have gravitated to the mid/high-$300s/st with winter/spring higher and summer/fall lower.

Urea barge prices this season are following the same trajectory with a peak and anticipated trough nearly identical to 2013. This year's highest monthly average came in February at $418.5/st, while 2013 peaked the same month at $418.8/st. Last year, the market troughed at $287.3/st in October. Recent paper and physical trades and current price indications suggest the market for late-summer/early-fall loading is around $290/st. The parallel price trend may be a function of lower imports offsetting the decline in corn prices and acres.

Fertilizer year-to-date imports (July-March) of 5.0mn t are down about 1mn t from last year. Some of this decline has been offset by higher domestic production, which was up about 135,000t from July to January, according to TFI data. Still, the sum of imports and production was down an estimated 825,000t through March.

This decline in supply may have been necessary to balance the market amid lower demand. US farmers

intended to plant 91.7mn corn acres this spring, 4pc less than last year. Anecdotal data from fertilizer suppliers suggests there may be more switching to soybeans than anticipated in northern regions because of this year's late spring. Front month corn prices are also $1.60/bushel lower than last June, which could prompt marginal corn acres to switch back to more traditional crops.

Forward urea prices could be pushed higher or lower by the import lineup and crop prices, among other factors. For now, however, 2014 pricing is taking its cues from 2013, even with indications year-over-year consumption may fall.

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25/12/18

Indian local urea sales on track for record in December

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CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values

25/12/17

CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values

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Mosaic halts SSP production in Brazil

25/12/16

Mosaic halts SSP production in Brazil

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Mosaic pauses Esterhazy potash mining after fatality

25/12/15

Mosaic pauses Esterhazy potash mining after fatality

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US-Belarus potash trade may soften MOP pricing outlook

25/12/15

US-Belarus potash trade may soften MOP pricing outlook

London, 15 December (Argus) — Potash trade between the US and Belarus is set to be reinstated after an absence of almost four years, following the lifting of US sanctions on Belarusian potash on 13 December with immediate effect — a move that could soften the outlook for global MOP prices as supply options increase. The relationship between the US and Belarus had started to ease earlier this year when Belarus agreed to release 52 political detainees from its prisons in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions on Belarusian flagship airline Belavia in September. This limited rapprochement generated talk among market participants of the possibility of a further lifting of US sanctions on Belarus, which could affect Belarusian potash. US sanctions on Belarusian potash , which is produced by state-owned Belaruskali and marketed by BPC, have been in place since 2021. But the announcement over the weekend has largely caught the market by surprise. 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Belarusian MOP has not touched US soil since February 2022, but in 2017-21 an average of 635,000 t/yr of Belarusian MOP was brought into the country. This policy change also comes just days after US president Donald Trump claimed he could impose severe tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports, and the return of trade with Belarus may be used as leverage for the US in the current tariff war between the two countries. But the US will not be able to replace all of the 11mn-12mn t/yr of Canadian potash it needs with Belarusian product. It is also in line with Trump's strategy to secure the country's critical minerals needs. Trump included potash in the administration's list of American critical minerals this year and ordered the US government to fast-track permit reviews for critical minerals projects . 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Without access to the US and EU markets, Belarus has leaned heavily on markets such as Brazil, China and southeast Asia, often pricing aggressively to maintain market share. The reopening of US trade offers a chance to reduce dependence on these regions. The lifting of the sanctions will also make it significantly easier for companies to trade Belarusian potash around the world, except in the EU and the UK, where sanctions remain on Belarus. Importers that had previously stopped taking Belarusian MOP may now be open to trading with Belarus again. By having an additional supply option, buyers may find they have a stronger negotiating position with existing suppliers, which could put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, markets where Belarus has a strong presence could see a reduction of Belarusian volumes if product shifts toward the US, potentially making those regions less competitive. The policy change also comes at a time when Belarusian MOP capacity is increasing capacity, with the 2mn t/yr Nezhinsky MOP project scheduled for commissioning in the second quarter of 2026, and underscores Belarus' commitment to continue growing its footprint in the global potash market. By Julia Campbell and Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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