Republicans could take control of the US Senate in tomorrow's midterm elections. But such a win is no guarantee that key measures pushed by the oil and gas industry will advance in coming months.
Republicans are widely expected to win control of both houses of Congress for the first time since 2006. Republicans need to win at least six seats to take control of the Senate, and most polls suggest they will do so.
Republicans have promised to pass bills to force construction of the Keystone XL pipeline and block the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from regulating greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.
"We are going to break the blockade in Washington by having a Republican Senate," 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney predicted yesterday in a televised interview. "We will have an energy policy, which means we're going to have the Keystone pipeline."
But a Keystone XL bill still faces a possible presidential veto, and lawmakers may still be reluctant to back lifting restrictions on oil exports if it means voters can blame them for higher retail gasoline prices later.
Gasoline prices have galvanized US voters on energy issues in past elections. But average US gasoline prices have fallen to near $3/USG in recent weeks, removing a key "pocketbook issue" from the election agenda.
Minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) vows that if his party takes control he will bring a bill to the floor early in the new year to force approval of TransCanada's proposed 830,000 b/d Keystone XL pipeline project.
McConnell may be close to having the 60 votes he will need to avoid a filibuster and pass a Keystone XL bill. But he will need Democratic votes. And he will not have the votes to override a presidential veto.
Oil producers are also counting on a Republican-controlled Congress to lift the US' decades-old crude export controls. They worry that if policy makers do not ease the restrictions, the price differential between the US benchmark WTI and Brent will widen, and they will be forced to shut in production.
Oil producers may find many Republicans unwilling partners in this legislative push, however. Gasoline prices typically are US voters' top energy concern, so while Republican lawmakers are philosophically in support of lifting the controls, many are fearful that if prices rise for whatever reason afterwards, voters will punish them at the ballot box.
McConnell has also promised to bring up legislation to block the EPA from moving forward with its plans to issue new regulations designed to curb carbon emissions from new and existing power plants. EPA is scheduled to issue a final rule affecting new plants in January and a final rule for existing plants in June.
While environmental activists have tried to make Keystone XL a litmus test for a politician's dedication to addressing climate change, these EPA regulations are Obama's signature climate initiative. McConnell will have to confront the threat of a Democratic filibuster and an Obama veto. Power plant emissions may well become the battle royal of the new Congress.
Republicans are expected to pick up open Senate seats once held by Democrats in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota and may gain Iowa as well. Polls are running against Democratic incumbents in Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska, and Democrats are in tough fights to hold seats in Colorado and North Carolina.
Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Florida), chair of the Democratic National Committee, said in a televised interview yesterday that Democrats will hold the Senate.
But centrist Democrats such as Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee chair Mary Landrieu (Louisiana) and Mark Begich (Alaska) are vulnerable. If they fall, the partisan divide on Capitol Hill will only widen.
Landrieu is the oil and gas industry's staunchest supporter among Senate Democrats, and she has attracted twice as much in campaign contributions from the oil and gas industry than her Republican challenger Bill Cassidy. While Landrieu is ahead in most polls among the field of candidates, she is likely to face Cassidy in a runoff on 6 December. And in a two-person race, polls suggest Cassidy will be the winner.
If Republicans take control of the Senate, Alaska's Lisa Murkowski will become chair of Senate Energy. Maria Cantwell (Washington), a frequent critic of the oil and gas industry, likely would ascend to become the ranking Democrat.
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