US revises key metric to justify methane rollback
The legal fate of efforts by President Donald Trump's administration to roll back restrictions on oil and gas sector methane emissions could hinge on a claim the damage from the potent greenhouse gas is far lower than previously thought.
The climate-related costs from uncontrolled methane releases, such as higher seas and stronger storms, were pegged at upwards of $1,100/tonne two years ago. That estimate, dubbed the social cost of methane, helped former president Barack Obama's administration justify requiring the oil and gas sector to spend millions of dollars to capture methane, which causes about 25 times more warming than CO2 emissions over a century.
But the Trump administration, in two deregulatory actions this month, now estimates the climate damage from methane emissions is as low as $46/tonne. That meant one rule expected to capture enough methane on public land to offset the annual emissions of nearly 1mn automobiles generated as little as $66mn in climate benefits, down from $1.6bn under the earlier metric.
US regulators last week cited those low benefits to justify rescinding most of those rules.
The same trend played out with a different rule proposing to reduce the frequency of methane leak detection programs at new oil and gas facilities.
The debate over how to calculate future damage from greenhouse gas emissions will be among the top issues for the methane rule rollbacks as they wind their way through court, experts say. The outcome of those legal battles could imperial not just methane rules but also tie up other regulatory initiatives, such as plans to relax vehicle fuel-economy standards and ease climate regulations for power plants.
"It could be a big issue for the rollbacks," Natural Resources Defense Council attorney Benjamin Longstreth said.
The US first estimated the "social cost" of greenhouse gases around 2010 as the Obama administration tried to calculate the benefits of reducing carbon emissions from cars and pickup trucks. The agency pegged the metric to the global damages from a warming climate, based on the rationale that climate change is a global problem that could not be solved if countries only focused on domestic harms.
The Trump administration, in contrast, has decided to only consider the likely climate damage in the US, which is at least 90pc lower than the global value. It also started calculating damages based on a higher "discount rate," an economic term that reflects how much society is willing to pay now to avoid future harm. That change causes calculated damages from greenhouse gas emissions to decline by as much as 70pc.
The administration's critics say focusing only on domestic climate damage is clearly inadequate because it ignores US links to the rest of the world and the global extend of the problem.
"Of course it affects US interests when there is severe flooding or wildfires in other countries, if supply chains are interrupted, if customers for our products are not there, if there are new security crises," Institute for Policy Integrity legal director Jason Schwartz said.
The administration's defenders say calculating future climate benefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions is highly uncertain and complex, making it unlikely the courts will intervene. Oil industry officials also say the administration is on firm legal footing in rescinding the methane restrictions because the primary justification is they lacked legal authority to regulate.
US agencies typically have the upper hand in court on scientific issues such as calculating climate damages, but courts can intervene if a decision is arbitrary or poorly supported. A federal appeals court in California in 2008, for example, rebuked regulators for not assigning any value to the climate benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through tougher fuel-economy standards.
"While the record shows that there is a range of values," the court said, "the value of carbon emissions reduction is certainly not zero."
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LNG Energy eyes sanctions-hit Venezuela oil blocks
LNG Energy eyes sanctions-hit Venezuela oil blocks
Caracas, 25 April (Argus) — A Canadian firm plans to revive two onshore oil blocks in Venezuela, but the conditional deals signed with struggling state-owned PdV come just as the US is reinstating broad sanctions on the South American country. LNG Energy Group's Venezuela unit agreed two deals with PdV to boost output in five fields in the Nipa-Nardo-Niebla and Budare-Elotes blocks, which produce about 3,000 b/d of light- to medium-grade crude, the company said on Wednesday. The Canadian company, which operates in neighboring Colombia, would receive 50-56pc of production of the blocks. Venezuela's oil ministry declined to comment. But finalizing the contracts depends on providing required investment to develop the fields within 120 days of the contract signing on 17 April, LNG Energy said. And the signing came on the same day as the US reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela and gave most companies until 31 May to wind down business. LNG Energy Group said it intends to comply with existing and upcoming US sanctions, noting that the conditional contracts were executed within the terms of the temporary lifting of sanctions — general license 44 — but it will abide by the new license 44A. The reimposition of US sanctions on Venezuela prohibits new investment in the country's energy sector, at the threat of US criminal and economic penalties. "The company will assess in the coming days the applicability of license 44A to its intended operations in Venezuela and determine the most appropriate course of action," LNG Energy said. "The company intends to operate in full compliance with the applicable sanctions regimes." The two blocks are in the adjacent Anzoategui and Monagas states, part of the Orinoco extra heavy oil belt. Most of Venezuela's output is medium- to heavy-grade crude. Both PdV and Chevron have drilling rigs working in those two states, in separate workover and drilling campaigns. Venezuela is now producing above 800,000 b/d, after the US allowed Chevron to increase production and investment under separate waivers. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
MDBs, parties must deliver on finance: Cop 29 president
MDBs, parties must deliver on finance: Cop 29 president
Edinburgh, 25 April (Argus) — Cop 29 president-designate Mukhtar Babayev pointed to insufficient action from multilateral development banks (MDBs) despite encouraging discussions, and urged all countries to play their part to deliver on climate finance negotiations this year. Climate finance discussions will be an important part of climate negotiations this year, having been "one of the most challenging climate diplomacy topics over the years", Babayev said today at the 15th Petersberg climate dialogue in Berlin — a forum for multilateral discussions. The meeting is a key milestone in climate discussions, paving the way for Cop 29 negotiations. The topic will be key as countries must decide on a new global finance goal to replace the $100bn/yr by 2020 pledge to developing countries made in 2009 and missed by developed countries. Babayev said he was working with a range of actors including MDBs, which have a "special role" as "multilateral public finance contributed the single largest part of the [$100bn/yr] target". Babayev said progress from the MDBs was essential, but while he "had many encouraging engagements during the World Bank and IMF spring meetings in Washington last week , we heard a great deal of concern and worry that we did not yet see adequate and sufficient action". "That must change," he said. He also warned that there is no single initiative able to unlock and increase climate finance flows to trillions of dollars, and instead pointed to "many interconnected elements" that countries will need to consider to set this new finance goal — the so-called NCQG. He added that the NCQG working group has already identified many options. "We know that [there are] strong and well-founded views on all sides," he said. "We are listening to all parties to understand their concerns and help them refine official landing zones based on a shared vision of success so we can deliver a fair and ambitious new goal," he added. "We need everyone to play their part so that we can build up unstoppable momentum where everyone is confident that their contribution is fairly matched by the contributions of others". Germany's foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said industrialised countries need to live up to their responsibilities. "Financial contributions from developed countries and multinational development banks will remain the basis of our efforts," she said, confirming that Germany has a €6bn climate goal for 2025. But she also said that "the world has changed" since the UN climate body the UNFCCC established a list of climate finance donors in 1992. The list has just 24 countries, plus the EU, as contributors. "In 1992, the two dozen countries that provided international climate finance made up 80pc of the world's economy. Now, that share is down to 50pc, and the share of all other countries has more than doubled," she said. She urged other countries in the G20, including China, "to join our effort". She pointed out that the donor base was broader for the loss and damage fund — to tackle the unavoidable and irreversible effects of climate change. Cop 28 host the UAE, which is not part of the 1992 list of donors, was the first contributor of the new fund created in Dubai last year. Babayev said that finance will not be the only important topic discussed at Cop 29 and that work must be done to get "the loss and damage fund up and running". Finalising the Article 6 negotiations will also be a key issue. "We cannot leave everything to market mechanisms," he said. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
Houston, 25 April (Argus) — The US economy in the first quarter grew at a 1.6pc annual pace, slower than expected, while a key measure of inflation accelerated. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed from a 3.4pc annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The first-quarter growth number, the first of three estimates for the period, compares with analyst forecasts of about a 2.5pc gain. Personal consumption slowed to a 2.5pc annual rate in the first quarter from a 3.3pc pace in the fourth quarter, partly reflecting lower spending on motor vehicles and gasoline and other energy goods. Gross private domestic investment rose by 3.2pc, with residential spending up 13.9pc after a 2.8pc expansion in the fourth quarter. Government spending growth slowed to 1.2pc from 4.6pc. Private inventories fell and imports rose, weighing on growth. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely follows, rose by 3.7pc following 2pc annual growth in the fourth quarter, although consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said revisions to the data should pull the index lower in coming months. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting its target lending rate in September following sharp increases in 2022 and early 2023 to fight inflation that surged to a high of 9.1pc in June 2022. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India’s Gail to shut Dabhol LNG terminal for monsoon
India’s Gail to shut Dabhol LNG terminal for monsoon
Mumbai, 25 April (Argus) — Indian state-controlled gas distributor Gail is planning to shut its 5mn t/yr Dabhol LNG terminal on the west coast from 15 May, ahead of monsoon rains. Gail will also stop importing LNG from mid-May at the terminal, a company official told Argus . This is because of the lack of a breakwater facility at the terminal, which prevents it from anchoring ships in turbulent seas. The breakwater facility was expected to be completed in January, but the cause of the delay is unknown. The terminal is likely to resume operations from the end of September, similar to its plans in 2023 , as this shutdown over the monsoon season is routine. Gail is set to receive a total of 139,635t LNG at the Dabhol terminal in May, which will arrive in two separate shipments from the US' 5.75mn t/yr Cove Point export facility. Both cargoes will be the last that the terminal will receive before it shuts in mid-May. It has received 583,326t of LNG at the terminal since the beginning of the year, lower by 4pc on the year, data from market analytics firm Kpler show. The Dabhol terminal only receives about 2.9mn t/yr of LNG, despite having a nameplate capacity of 5mn t/yr, because it is not used during the monsoon season. Gail intends to gradually increase the capacity of the Dabhol terminal to 12mn t/yr by April 2030–March 2031. By Rituparna Ghosh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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